NFL Free-Agent Moves That Could Heavily Impact the 2016 Draft
The 2016 NFL draft is now a little more than a month away. Though the collective football world has been gearing up for this massive event for many months, Day 1 of the draft will officially kick off on April 28.
We don't know exactly how the draft is going to unfold, but we are beginning to get a clearer picture of what the early rounds could look like. Thanks to this year's edition of free agency, that picture appears quite a bit different than it did a couple of weeks ago.
This is, of course, because team needs around the league are different than they were a couple of weeks ago.
Not every move made in free agency is going to affect the early stages of the draft. However, some unquestionably will. The signing of quarterback Brock Osweiler by the Houston Texans, for example, makes it less likely that one franchise will chase a signal-caller early in the draft while making it more likely that another will.
We're going to examine the Osweiler deal and other free-agent moves that could significantly impact the first few rounds of the 2016 draft. These are moves that by either creating or filling critical team needs have likely caused franchises to change their approaches to the upcoming draft.
Do you agree with our choices? Be sure to let us know in the comments section.
Raiders Re-Sign Tackle Donald Penn, Add Kelechi Osemele
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The Oakland Raiders scored big early in free agency by adding former Baltimore Ravens offensive lineman Kelechi Osemele. At just 26 years old, Osemele is one of the league's up-and-coming young stars, and he brings versatility along the offensive line.
Though primarily a guard, Osemele did appear in four games at left tackle for the Ravens in 2015.
However, an even bigger move—at least in the short term—might be the re-signing of starting left tackle Donald Penn.
Penn is an older veteran at 32 years of age, but he is still playing at a high level and is coming off an incredible season. Pro Football Focus rated Penn 10th overall among offensive tackles for the 2015 season.
Oakland locked up Penn with a new two-year deal, which means the blind side of quarterback Derek Carr will be protected for the immediate future. By adding Osemele to the mix, the team ensures that the offensive line as a whole will be improved in 2016.
This means the Raiders aren't likely to reach for O-line help early in April's draft. This is important because it will allow Oakland to target an impact defender, a running back or another pass-catching playmaker during the first two days of the draft.
Had Penn been allowed to walk, the Raiders may have been forced to start Osemele at tackle or search for a starting-caliber left tackle in the draft.
This also means that a team picking after Oakland, like the Seattle Seahawks, will have a better chance of getting its guy should that targeted guy be an offensive lineman.
Falcons Sign Wideout Mohamed Sanu
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Atlanta Falcons receiver Roddy White had a down season in 2015, but he was still second on the team among wideouts with 43 receptions. Parting ways with him, which the team did early in the offseason, created a void on the Falcons offense.
Finding a complement for top wideout Julio Jones could easily have become a primary goal on draft day had Atlanta not addressed the position in free agency.
Of course, the Falcons did address the receiver position in free agency by signing former Cincinnati Bengals receiver Mohamed Sanu to a five-year, $32.5 million deal. Sanu was the No. 3 wideout in Cincinnati last season and finished the year with 33 receptions and 394 yards. He projects as the replacement for White in the Atlanta offense.
By adding Sanu, the Falcons now have the freedom to chase other positions of need in the early stages of the draft. Adding a high-caliber defensive back or a pass-rusher to complement second-year man Vic Beasley could now be the goal.
The signing of Sanu is also a good development for other receiver-needy teams around the league. A team selecting at the top of Round 2, like the Cleveland Browns or the Tennessee Titans, will have a better chance of snagging a pass-catcher with borderline first-round talent.
Eagles Sign Quarterback Chase Daniel
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The Philadelphia Eagles' signing of quarterback Chase Daniel was one of the most understated moves of early free agency, and it doens't leap out as a move that will potentially impact the draft. However, it easily could because of this year's quarterback class.
The Eagles aren't in dire need of a starter at the quarterback position, as the team recently signed Sam Bradford to a new two-year extension. However, Bradford still has yet to prove he can be the long-term answer, and he has a pretty significant injury history.
Philadelphia would do well to begin developing another passer now.
Since people generally consider this year's quarterback class to be on the weaker side, even picking up a developmental prospect like Connor Cook or Christian Hackenberg could require a Day 2 draft pick.
However, the signing of Daniel gives Philadelphia a plan B in case Bradford falters or becomes injured yet again. He spent the past three seasons under new Eagles head coach Doug Pederson when the two were with the Kansas City Chiefs.
According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, Pederson views Daniel as "more than a backup."
If Pederson really believes that Daniel can be the guy if Bradford cannot, it will allow the Eagles to focus on improving other positions over the first two days of the draft. This will also allow 31 other franchises to battle for the rights to the Cooks and Hackenbergs of the 2016 draft world.
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Broncos Match Offer Sheet for C.J. Anderson
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Shortly after the free-agent market opened, the Miami Dolphins signed restricted free agent C.J. Anderson to a four-year, $18 million offer sheet. The Denver Broncos eventually matched the offer sheet, which means the running back will suit up for the defending Super Bowl champions in 2016.
This move is significant as it relates to the draft for a couple of reasons. For one, it ensures Denver has at least part of its backfield in place—fellow running back Ronnie Hillman is still a free agent. Denver could choose to spend a high pick on a running back, but it isn't necessary. The Broncos might even decide Anderson can be a full-time starter.
"With the rise in pay also goes the rise in expectations," Broncos vice president John Elway said of Anderson, per Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com. "And I think C.J. understands that and he’s ready to handle that.’’
Grabbing a complementary piece in the mid-to-late rounds should be sufficient.
The move also leaves Miami with few options other than the draft to strengthen its backfield. The team does have second-year back Jay Ajayi on the roster, but he saw just 49 carries as a rookie in 2015.
Remaining free-agent options include the likes of Hillman, LeGarrette Blount and Arian Foster.
Unless the Dolphins completely fall in love with a prospect like Ezekiel Elliott (not an impossible option), they probably won't eye a running back with the 13th overall pick. However, the Dolphins could find themselves positioning in the second or third round to beat out other teams for a quality rusher.
Browns Allow Four Starters to Walk
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The Cleveland Browns allowed four starters—center Alex Mack, safety Tashaun Gipson, tackle Mitchell Schwartz and receiver Travis Benjamin—to leave in free agency. The team later released starting linebacker Karlos Dansby.
As they pertain to the draft, these moves are important because they open the door for Cleveland to target virtually any position in the draft with each and every pick.
For one, it makes it clear that the Browns are primed for a full-scale slow rebuild. With a long-term plan in mind, the Browns could use their early picks on building-block pieces like quarterback, pass-rusher and receiver. This is exactly how the Oakland Raiders built their foundation over the last two drafts.
This also means the Browns are in need of talent at virtually every position except left tackle—and don't be surprised if Cleveland decides to shop Joe Thomas on draft day. Tony Grossi of ESPN.com (via ESPN Cleveland) predicted a Thomas trade will occur before or at the start of the draft.
In addition to possibly trading Thomas, the Browns could be busy trading picks early in the draft. Cleveland almost certainly wants to acquire more, and the team will be able to sell interest or disinterest in pretty much every player suited for their schemes.
Seriously, you could pair Cleveland with practically any round-appropriate player in your mock draft and have it look legitimate.
On top of everything, other teams could find themselves scrambling to trade in front of Cleveland because they fear the Browns are interested in "their guy." Don't be surprised if the dismantling of Cleveland's roster leads to a lot of uncertainty and activity during the heat of the draft.
Giants Land Olivier Vernon, Re-Sign Jason Pierre-Paul
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The New York Giants own the 10th overall pick in this year's draft. They're also coming off a season in which Pro Football Focus rated the team just 26th overall in pass rush. Had the Giants not addressed their pass rush in free agency, there would be a strong chance the team's initial draft selection would be a player of the pass-rushing variety.
However, New York did address its pass rush by re-signing internal free agent Jason Pierre-Paul and landing former Miami Dolphin Olivier Vernon with a massive five-year, $85 million deal.
Pro Football Focus rated Vernon first overall among 4-3 defensive ends in pass rushing for the 2015 season, and he should immediately upgrade the Giants defense.
By adding Vernon and retaining Pierre-Paul, the Giants have freed themselves up to target another position at No. 10 overall—perhaps another offensive weapon to complement emerging receiving star Odell Beckham Jr.
These moves also increase the likelihood that a quality edge-rusher like Shaq Lawson or Kevin Dodd falls out of the top 10.
Yes, the Giants should feel thankful they were able to land Vernon on the open market, but defense-needy teams picking in the middle of the first round should be equally grateful.
Texans Sign Brock Osweiler to Four-Year Deal
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The Houston Texans made one of the biggest splashes in free agency by signing quarterback Brock Osweiler to a four-year, $72 million deal with $37 million guaranteed. This move could also affect the upcoming draft more significantly than any other.
The $37 million guaranteed pretty much ensures the Texans aren't using the 22nd overall pick—and likely any other high pick, for that matter—on a signal-caller. However, the move opens the door for the Denver Broncos potentially using the 31st overall selection to secure a quarterback.
Denver lost Osweiler in the same week that former starter Peyton Manning announced his retirement from the NFL. The Broncos did trade for Mark Sanchez, but he is most likely a stopgap option at best.
If a quarterback like Paxton Lynch is sitting on the board at the end of the first round, the Broncos could be tempted to pull the trigger. NFL Media's Bucky Brooks paired Lynch with Denver in his latest mock draft. However, this might not be a possibility if the Broncos give off the indication they're interested in drafting a quarterback.
Since Denver owns the last pick in Round 1, the next selection won't be made until the following evening. This could prompt a number of teams to try trading back into the first round in order to snag a quarterback like Lynch in front of Denver. The Broncos could even auction off the pick themselves by giving the impression they'll use it on a quarterback.
Two years ago, the Minnesota Vikings traded into the last slot of Round 1 to ensure they got their guy in Teddy Bridgewater before the Texans opened Round 2. A similar move could be made next month, and it definitely won't be made by Houston.
Broncos Sign Tackle Russell Okung
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The Denver Broncos took a step to strengthen their offensive line by signing left tackle Russell Okung. It wasn't one of the earlier moves of free agency, and the move wasn't much of a headline-grabber. However, it will likely impact April's draft.
For starters, signing Okung gives Denver an experienced option at the left tackle position. Ty Sambrailo made three starts there in 2015 before landing on injured reserve. Ryan Harris, who started most of the season at left tackle, is now with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Right now, Okung is probably the most appealing option.
Okung isn't an elite option, of course—Pro Football Focus rated him 26th overall among offensive tackles for the 2015 season. However, Okung has 72 starts with the Seattle Seahawks under his belt. Denver shouldn't feel pressure to pull an early trigger on an offensive tackle in order to ensure a starting-caliber option.
The move also ensures Seattle won't have a shot at re-signing its six-year starter at left tackle, which could be a major issue now that most starting-caliber tackles are off the market.
Pro Football Focus rated the Seahawks just 30th overall in pass blocking last season, and quarterback Russell Wilson withstood 45 regular-season sacks. Things could be even worse in 2016 unless Seattle can effectively replace Okung and departed guard J.R. Sweezy.
Seattle may have no choice but to chase multiple offensive linemen early in the draft. Throwing mid-round talent at the offensive line, as the team did in last year's draft, probably won't be enough.
All contract information via Spotrac.com.
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