2016 NFL Draft: Prospects Who Benefit Most from Free-Agency Moves
The NFL offseason is flying by, as we’re already more than one week into the free-agency period. Most of the household names are off the market, and the next tier of talent will be receiving interest. Our focus will shift from free agency to the 2016 NFL draft since the mega-event is the best opportunity for teams to find impact talent.
Free agency always has a direct effect on the draft. Teams that miss on critical needs are left with the decision to force a pick to fill a hole or risk passing on someone who can contribute elsewhere. Sometimes these decisions work out for the best since the players were the right fits, but it’s dangerous to draft out of desperation.
The free-agency fallout has provided a clear picture of remaining needs for all 32 franchises. We have you covered for the six players who will benefit the most from free-agent movement and where they could land in the draft.
Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State
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One of several stars on Ohio State’s defense was cornerback Eli Apple. The 6’1”, 199-pound cornerback specializes in tight coverage, as he uses his excellent length to disrupt receivers. The redshirt sophomore has as much upside at the position as anyone in this class.
One benefit of playing at Ohio State is the competition the team faced between 2014 and 2015. Apple has experience playing against NFL receivers and prospects such as Amari Cooper, Aaron Burbridge, Leonte Carroo, Will Fuller and Corey Davis. His performance is as promising as his measurements. He allowed just 22 receptions on 54 targets in 2015, per CFB Film Room.
Apple will benefit greatly from the need for cornerback help around the league. Competent cornerbacks are hard to find, but those who have elite speed and size are even more valuable. Apple’s 4.40 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine locked him in as a first-round prospect.
It’s easy to find fits for Apple since Ohio State used a mix of Cover 4 and man schemes. The Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins, Oakland Raiders and Pittsburgh Steelers should all be in the market for a cornerback of Apple’s ilk.
Kevin Dodd, DE, Clemson
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It’s a good time to be a pass-rusher prospect. As teams splurged on defensive ends and outside linebackers who could get after the quarterback, players like Kevin Dodd will be bargain commodities. A dynamic edge threat on a rookie contract provides the best bang-for-buck value in the business outside of an elite, young quarterback.
The New York Giants' investment in Olivier Vernon may have ruled them out for Dodd, but the move had a ripple effect across the league. Several teams in the middle of the first round now have the same glaring need for a 6’5”, 277-pound defensive end. The second-team All-ACC defender had an excellent 2015 campaign that culminated in a dominant performance against Alabama.
Dodd’s motor and ability to win in a variety of ways are two of his biggest strengths. He is relentless with his effort and has plus athleticism to make him more than someone who wills his way to production. He’s quick as a pass-rusher and strong in the run game.
First-round fits aren’t hard to find for Dodd. The Chicago Bears, New Orleans Saints, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions and Indianapolis Colts are all potential suitors in the teens.
Josh Doctson, WR, TCU
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The lack of quality wide receiver depth available in free agency is a good thing for NFL draft prospects like TCU receiver Josh Doctson. The only top free-agent wide receiver who returned to his previous team was Seattle Seahawks receiver Jermaine Kearse. That means holes either opened up or stayed the same throughout the league since it was already a thin market.
The 2016 class of receivers is deep with talent but not top-heavy. Whether you consider Doctson, Ole Miss’ Laquon Treadwell, Ohio State’s Michael Thomas or Baylor’s Corey Coleman the top receiver doesn’t matter too much. They’ll all benefit from talent defecting elsewhere.
Doctson is special, as he is incredibly good at the catch point. He’s able to track the ball and pluck it despite being draped by a cornerback. He’s not just a contested-catch specialist, though. He proved to be an elite athlete at the combine and posted a solid 4.5 40-yard dash time at 6’2” and 202 pounds.
Finding a fit for Doctson is easy. He’s unlikely to go in the top 10, but the Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, Los Angeles Rams, New York Giants, New Orleans Saints and Minnesota Vikings would greatly benefit from his presence.
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Connor Cook, QB, Michigan State
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While the Houston Texans committed $72 million to quarterback Brock Osweiler and other teams are toying with the idea of acquiring Colin Kaepernick, it’s really the 2016 quarterback draft class that will benefit from the dearth of options available. Top quarterback prospects Jared Goff and Carson Wentz seem to be top-10 locks considering the need for their services. But Michigan State’s Connor Cook could benefit the most.
Cook is not as flashy or consistent as Goff or Wentz, but he is experienced and has been a part of high-pressure games with Michigan State. He was a major contributor when he lined up under center for the Spartans, totaling 9,194 yards, 71 touchdowns and just 22 interceptions in his career.
It’s fair to question whether Cook will ever be much better than Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton with his skill set. Dalton is good enough to get into the playoffs and potentially more with the proper pieces around him. Some franchises will take a game manager and try to bolster the roster around Cook.
The best fits for Cook are at the tail end of the first round. The Denver Broncos need a starter, and Cook could go in right away and win that job. Other teams such as the Pittsburgh Steelers and Arizona Cardinals may want to start grooming Cook for the starting position.
Germain Ifedi, OT, Texas A&M
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Like the wide receiver position, most of the top unrestricted free-agent offensive linemen available bolted for greener pastures elsewhere. This is a problem for teams that didn’t land one of the studs and for incumbent teams that lost talent. The lack of quality linemen throughout the NFL in general means every team could stand to allocate resources to the position.
Texas A&M has produced a first-round offensive tackle three consecutive years, but its best candidate may be at risk of breaking that streak this year. Tackle Germain Ifedi dealt with injuries in 2015 and struggled to show the physical dominance that was expected of him.
Even with his struggles, the need for tackle and guard help is so severe that Ifedi should be considered the top developmental option. He measured a ridiculous 6’6”, 324 pounds with 36-inch arm length at the combine. His broad jump of 109 inches also showed his tremendous lower-body explosiveness.
Ifedi is a project who could sneak into the bottom of the first round or top of the second round because of his physical gifts. He needs coaching and some time, but the investment and development could work out to be a genius move. Top options include the Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions.
A’Shawn Robinson, DL, Alabama
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There’s a niche market for 5-technique defensive tackles that includes both 3-4 and 4-3 under defensive fronts. The two-gapping trench players aren’t attractive because of their lack of production, but they serve a necessary purpose to help their teammates. A great 5-technique in this class is Alabama’s A’Shawn Robinson.
The 6’4”, 307-pound interior lineman was instrumental in the Crimson Tide’s run defense the last three seasons. He’s not a great athlete, and he won’t give much in the passing game because of his lack of burst. The value for his play style is high since he’s so good at his role.
Free agency saw B.J. Raji take a one-year hiatus from football. Miami Dolphins executive vice president Mike Tannenbaum revealed they’ll play a 4-3 under, and the Denver Broncos lost Malik Jackson. Each move makes Robinson more valuable since he could start right away at 5-technique for any of those teams.
Robinson fits “planet theory,” as he’s big and moves rather well even if he isn’t quick. Guys like Robinson don’t last long in the draft, and the transactions this offseason have only boosted his value.
All stats used are from Sports-Reference.com.
Ian Wharton is an NFL Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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