Which Christian Hackenberg Is Coming to the NFL?

Trying to predict the NFL draft with any accuracy each year can often make you talk to your computer screen and its blinking cursor, then later have full conversations with plants.

Some years are a little more predictable than others, but generally mock drafts become the subject of mockery. Predicting the NFL on Sundays is hard enough, so why would the challenge get easier when we’re trying to peg the league’s future?

And right now, it feels like one player is setting the difficulty level of the maddening yet obsessive practice of draft prognosticating to "expert."

Placing Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg into the right draft slot is the proverbial dark-room dart throw—but while whizzing around on a skateboard. Oh, and doing a handstand on that skateboard as you somehow still nail the bull's-eye.

Hackenberg plays a premium position, and his draft projections are confusing because there’s a layer of murkiness to his college play, with one sparkling year now overshadowed by two duds.

He’s the great unknown heading into the 2016 draft. He could be the franchise savior whose pro-level body (6’4” and 223 lbs) and brief experience in a pro-style offense will lead to pro-style success. Or he could be a floundering, inaccurate passer set to drift toward the draft’s nether regions, never to be heard from again.

It’s not possible for Hackenberg’s draft projections to be any more wildly divided as he prepares for a critical workout Thursday at Penn State’s pro day.

“I’ve still heard everything from a late-first-round reach to falling out of the draft completely,” wrote Mike Farrell of Rivals.com. “So his pro day will be huge.”

Hackenberg could be deemed one of the best prospects available at the most important position in football. As a first-round pick, his new team would be communicating: We’ve found our franchise cornerstone at quarterback, and he can start immediately, then keep starting for the next decade at least.

Or he could sit and wait without hearing his name over 253 picks.

The latter scenario seems unlikely, though anything is possible right now with Hackenberg. Especially after the Houston Texans decided dumping $37 million in guaranteed money on Brock Osweiler was a better option than reuniting Hackenberg with head coach Bill O’Brien. Those two made a fine pairing for one season with the Nittany Lions, when Hackenberg—then a baby-faced 18-year-old in 2013—was named the Big Ten Freshman of the Year.

A lack of enthusiasm from O’Brien to resume that seemingly blissful head coach-quarterback marriage resulted in a whirring sound coming from Hackenberg’s draft stock. Or as CBSSports.com’s Will Brinson quipped, maybe it was a thud. A different kind of thud:

The confusion surrounding Hackenberg is tied to first a mixed history, and then the overwhelming, unshakable feeling that he just looks like an NFL quarterback.

Yes, I realize the latter part of that sentence is made up of arbitrary words describing an often flawed quarterback eye test. But the most basic standard is where we always begin, and Hackenberg more than looks the part.

Physically he’s everything you want in a modern quarterback. He has a towering presence that allows him to shed contact, and with a velocity of 56 miles per hour according to Ourlads Scouting Service, Hackenberg also has the arm to power any throw downfield. And considering his size, he’s also above average as an athlete. Hackenberg has the mobility to escape pressure and posted a 40-yard dash time of 4.78 at the combine, which tied for fourth at his position.

But the NFL doesn’t want prospects who merely look like quarterbacks. The league already doesn’t have enough passers who can, well, play like quarterbacks. Which brings us back to that fogginess around Hackenberg’s ability, and whether one season of quality play can trump two years of sputtering.

The math there doesn’t seem to add up, because two is more than one, and two more recent uninspiring seasons should linger much longer in your memory.

Season	Comp %	Passing yards	Yds/attempt	TDs	INTs	Rating
2013	58.9	2,955	7.5	20	10	134.0
2014	55.8	2,977	6.2	12	15	109.4
2015	53.5	2,525	7.0	16	6	123.9

Life without O’Brien quickly became a struggle for Hackenberg.

He stuck around even after the Jerry Sandusky scandal rocked Penn State. Then, as a 5-star recruit true freshman, he seemed at ease in O’Brien’s pro-style system with his booming arm to stretch the field.

After that year, NFL.com analyst and former scout Bucky Brooks ranked Hackenberg eighth among his top 10 college quarterbacks to watch in 2014.

Hackenberg still had some hiccups during his debut season, which is expected from any true freshman who’s pushed into the searing flames of leading an offense immediately. But overall, he showed the same potential that made him a highly pursued gem during the recruiting process. His play on the field matched the physical attributes we see away from it.

He passed the eye test, and the playing test. The problem, however, is he repeatedly flunked the playing test for two straight years after that.

“‘Looks the part’ is the nicest thing that has been said about Hackenberg the last two seasons, and we’re not really sure how much that’s worth,” Steve Palazzolo of Pro Football Focus wrote recently in his blunt assessment while projecting Hackenberg as an undrafted free agent. “The on-field play has been subpar by every measure, and most point to 2013 as the glimmer of hope in Hackenberg’s upside.”

Evaluating the entire Hackenberg package is like looking through a kaleidoscope. What you see depends on how much you can manipulate the statistical evidence and film you’re working with.

Some, like former Dallas Cowboys scout Bryan Broaddus, think Hackenberg’s positives outweigh his flaws and still rank him among the most appealing mid-round developmental prospects available in 2016:

But others don’t share that confidence when looking at his two most recent seasons. Especially 2015, when Hackenberg’s completion percentage fell by over five percent compared to 2013 and he averaged half a yard less per attempt.

“Although he has special arm talent, the tape shows flawed decision-making, poor pocket awareness and streaky accuracy due to unstable mechanics,” Dane Brugler of CBSSports.com said in his scouting report. “There is no question that Hackenberg will benefit from NFL coaching, but the game still moves at light speed for him, and it hasn't shown signs of slowing down.”

There’s a dangerous mix of intrigue and uncertainty with Hackenberg, mostly because of the commonly cited reasons for his two-year flameout.

The two heard most often also have the problem of being true. Firstly, he was walloped behind a poor offensive line and sacked 82 times during the 2014 and 2015 seasons. That sort of barrage makes it hard to establish anything resembling rhythm.

It’s also one way to shatter a young quarterback’s confidence, which brings us to our second reason for Hackenberg’s plummet. After fitting seamlessly into O’Brien’s offense, he never really adjusted to the new approach from a new coaching staff led by James Franklin. So he lost two vital and delicate years of development.

The concern, though, is that despite his success in 2013 there are many plays when the quarterback seen on tape then doesn’t look much different from the same guy on film in 2015. Which doesn’t exactly leave you brimming with confidence about Hackenberg’s ability to mature as an NFL passer.

In both years, there’s plenty of evidence showing a quarterback who lacks fundamental vision, field awareness and anticipation. All of that leads to another core concern: ball placement.

Too often Hackenberg leans heavily on his arm strength, causing him to see a hole that isn’t there. Here’s an example from 2013, the season still fueling hope.

Against Indiana, he took a five-step drop and scanned the field. His first read wasn’t open, so Hackenberg quickly moved along and turned his head to the right side. That’s where he had an open receiver, but only if the ball was placed to the outside with the proper touch.

Instead Hackenberg’s throw drifted to the inside, where disaster waited.

Credit: DraftBreakdown.com

That play should have ended in an interception, and possibly six points going the other way. Hackenberg luckily escaped with an incompletion, but he won’t be spared often on similarly errant throws in the NFL.

William Inge, Indiana’s co-defensive coordinator during each of Hackenberg's three games against the Hoosiers, said that in recent years the weakness to exploit was clear. It was also out of Hackenberg's control.

“We knew he had a strong arm,” Inge said during a phone conversation with Bleacher Report. “He didn't have to prove that to us. We knew he could push the ball vertically down the field. What we were telling ourselves heading in was this: If we could get to him because of some of their deficiencies along the offensive line, that may deter them from pushing the ball."

Penn State’s weak offensive line was in plain view for any defensive coordinator to see, and attack. Hackenberg was clearly limited while facing frenzied pressure over the past two seasons. But it’s wise to be cautious with how much blame you’re willing to deflect away from him.

His game film is dotted with moments when inaccuracy invites a dance with danger, moments that were largely masked in 2013 by both O’Brien and a more competent offensive line. Are we really seeing a glimmer of hope when looking back on 2013 then? Or is that year just a tiny ray of light peeking out from behind the tallest, darkest rock?

If 2013 is our source of hope, then it should be hard to find similarities between Hackenberg that year and the next two seasons. But it’s not, as although there were more examples of deep-heaving brilliance during Hackenberg’s freshman year, we still saw mistakes throughout his career at Penn State that were the product of poor judgment.

Try to guess which year this one is from. Hackenberg faced pressure against Ohio State, with a six-man rush coming. But he still had time in a clean pocket and he saw his receiver running a short slant.

Credit: DraftBreakdown.com

That was his checkdown option. It came in the form of a blue streak named Eugene Lewis, a flash of color that was an exit sign allowing Hackenberg to be free from the crumbling wall of humanity around him.

What did he fail to see while navigating those seconds of chaos? The white streak bolting in the other direction. That streak had a name too: cornerback Armani Reeves, and his threat level was set to “dismantle.”

Credit: DraftBreakdown.com

A receiver nearly perished on national television because of Hackenberg’s inability to make quality decisions while under pressure. He didn't see Reeves, who was squatting on any crossing route. He needed to either identify that coverage and react accordingly by getting the ball out quicker or make the appropriate pre-snap adjustment with pressure coming.

He did neither, which resulted in a jaw-rattling hit and a ball fluttering in the air after impact. It fell harmlessly back to earth, but often little good comes from a dislodged ball up the middle.

That play is from 2014, the height of Hackenberg’s spiral. It was a year when he threw more interceptions (15) than touchdowns (12), and his yards per attempt fell to the lowest point in his college career (6.2).

There may be team executives in need who will see a clear dividing line between the Hackenberg of 2013 and the lesser models on display in 2014 and 2015. They’ll be able to flip on tape of his high-arcing throws that first sail far and then farther. I’m talking about the kind of throws football poems are written about, usually with an NFL Films camera zoomed in close up and John Facenda saying something awesome.

That’s how hope will be found, and how Hackenberg could emerge as desirable quarterback Play-Doh to be molded into something spectacular, or at the very least, something useful.

But then as you watch more tape, Hackenberg’s years at Penn State start to blend together. It’s a meandering process that leads to optimism, followed by concern and dread.

Hackenberg can’t be slid easily into one box, or given one label as a prospect. He’s many labels all at once, which makes the future both intriguing, and downright terrifying.