Will Novak Djokovic Be Challenged at All During Indian Wells 2016?
It might seem like the same old story, with world No. 1 Novak Djokovic the heavy favorite to win Indian Wells, but the details are constantly shifting. For the past year, the Serbian has evolved into one of the most dominant players in history, but the problem is his nearest competitors are finding it difficult to stay on the fast track.
Roger Federer is recovering from knee surgery.
A rusty Andy Murray was ousted by an inconsistent clay-courter.
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Rafael Nadal may not be the favorite going into his match against 18-year-old Alexander Zverev.
Stan Wawrinka can look invincible like Marat Safin reincarnated, and he can look out of sorts...like Safin.
The rest of the ATP veterans are tires that lost their treads long ago. They will get you to the nearest town, but don't expect them to win the race.
Is the ATP Tour less about Djokovic and more of an indictment against a talented but flawed field? Is this a weak era in men's tennis?
Transitional Periods
There have been acknowledged "golden eras" in tennis when multiple legendary stars battled for majors. Of note, there was the late 1970s to early '80s when Bjorn Borg, Jimmy Connors, John McEnroe and Guillermo Vilas combined epic winning with appealing style and flamboyance.
There was the early '90s when prime veterans like Boris Becker and Stefan Edberg were challenged by emerging stars like Pete Sampras, Andre Agassi and Jim Courier.
Most recently, a third glut of legendary champions has rewritten the record book, cooking up majors like hotcakes. Few would argue against Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray as the greatest generation of tennis legends, and they currently occupy four of the top five slots in the ATP rankings.
In between these golden eras, there are "transitional periods," dominated by one great player or a group of (opportunistic) next-level stars. After McEnroe declined by 1985, Ivan Lendl usually dominated precision champion Mats Wilander and emerging versions of Becker and Edberg. It lacked the epic flair of a golden era.
The late '90s saw Pete Sampras beat up a flawed tour, which was subsequently overrun by sporadic youthful champions who burned out like cheap candles. Lleyton Hewitt, Safin, Andy Roddick and Gustavo Kuerten were very good but hardly as formidable as Nadal and Djokovic once Federer was eventually challenged.
Right now, Djokovic is dominating a transitional era. Federer is sidelined, Nadal is on his last legs, and Murray is a shadow of his more aggressive self under his coach, Lendl. To be sure, there are many fine players in the top 20, but there are several warts.
Djokovic is the shiny top of the ATP muffin that is weighing down its crumbly foundation.
New Challengers
Tennis fans and media are searching high and low for a new golden challenger to rival Djokovic, but it's amounted to no more than a few dull coins beneath the couch cushions. Indian Wells has mostly reaffirmed what has been written off as tardy maturation for the lost generation:
- Grigor Dimitrov lost to rising German teen Zverev. So much for the Bulgarian's Federer-like talent, not that anyone will remember the former "Baby Federer" reference in the near future.
- Bernard Tomic was pummeled by Milos Raonic, and a cynic might suggest there is a lot more wrong than an ailing wrist.
What about the "next generation," which is young 20-somethings and teens?
- In a sport where mental stability is as vital as breathing, gifted Nick Kyrgios has been combustible.
- It's also going to take time for American youngsters like Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe to cut their teeth on the tour.
- Croatian Borna Coric is progressing, but Tomas Berdych carved him up 6-1, 7-6.
If Indian Wells is any kind of crystal ball, then hope resides in two young players who have a chance to break into the weekend.
First, there is Dominic Thiem, February's player of the month, who continues to play with strength and tenacity in deciding sets, his latest victory punctuated by a 6-1 third set over powerful Jack Sock. Can he keep it going in the fourth round against veteran also-ran Jo-Wilfried Tsonga?
Then there's the strapping Zverev, all 6'6" of lithe movement and beautiful groundstrokes. Berdych, who has hit with him numerous times, told ATP World Tour he thinks Zverev will be the world No. 1 player someday.
We could see huge tests for these two players in days. One more win for Thiem would likely pit him against Djokovic in the quarterfinals. Zverev must conquer Nadal and Kei Nishikori, which is a giant task, and then it could get him his possible semifinal date versus Djokovic.
Looking too soon for future stars might be wishful thinking, but it's natural when, at times, the star veterans have been unplugged like old appliances.
Is this a "weak era" or a "transitional period" mostly because Djokovic is lapping the field?
These kinds of questions get asked when a truly dominant champion makes a bid for being one of the greatest players of all time. We've seen this from three legends in the last 10 years, and only time will tell when the dynasty ends.
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