Ultimate Guide to Champions League Round-of-16 Week 4: Yet Another Messi Record?
The month-long roadshow that is the modern last 16 of the UEFA Champions League comes to an end this week, with six teams realistically battling for a place in the quarter-finals—and Dynamo Kiev and Arsenal just playing for pride.
Significant first-leg home defeats make it difficult for those two to progress over the next couple of days, but everywhere else you look it is extremely tight, with perhaps just a piece of genius or a mistake set to prove vital.
Here’s the ultimate guide to another busy week.
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Tuesday, March 15
Manchester City (3) vs. Dynamo Kiev (1), Etihad Stadium, Manchester, 7.45 p.m. GMT/2.45 p.m. E.T.
A disappointing 0-0 draw at Norwich City in the Premier League on Saturday has added to the sense that Manchester City’s domestic season is really just grinding to a halt after they won the Capital One Cup, and the Champions League now seems their best chance of further silverware.
The sight of Manuel Pellegrini lifting the famous old trophy before heading off into the sunset to be replaced by the younger, cooler, infinitely more popular Pep Guardiola would be one to gladden the hearts of the old football romantics, but whatever happens, Pellegrini looks certain to preside over City’s best Champions League season to date.
Progress here would confirm that, and that progress should be certain after Sergio Aguero, David Silva and, crucially, Yaya Toure—City’s "big three" for quite some time now—all struck in Kiev to earn a 3-1 victory, a result that means that three significant stats now count against Dynamo, who have to win by three clear goals.
You have to go back to 1969 to find the last and only time that a team recovered from losing the first leg 3-1 at home to progress in this competition (Ajax against Benfica), City have only conceded three goals at home in the Champions League once (to Bayern Munich in 2013) and Dynamo have never won a game in England by any margin, let alone three.
That’s not changing here.
Prediction: Manchester City 2 Dynamo Kiev 0 (5-1 on aggregate)
Atletico Madrid (0) vs. PSV Eindhoven (0), Vicente Calderon, Madrid, 7.45 p.m. GMT/2.45 p.m. ET
The failure to score an away goal in Eindhoven would have worried Diego Simeone somewhat, but the Argentinian will be relying on his team’s excellent defence to navigate them through this tie back in the Spanish capital.
After all, PSV earned nine of their 10 group-stage points at home and will be coming up against an Atletico side that has conceded just once in their last seven games in all competitions, with Simeone able to withdraw key attacker Antoine Griezmann early in his side’s 3-0 La Liga win over Deportivo La Coruna at the weekend.
Chasing a 100th home win in all European competitions, Atletico are also seeking a third consecutive appearance in the last eight of this one, confirmation—if it were needed—that Simeone has carved out a position for them among the European elite during what has been a fantastic spell in charge.
The possibility of the away goal for the Dutch side won’t have crossed the driven former midfielder’s mind, and with PSV without an away win in this competition since November 2007, their run looks like coming to an end at the home of a side who will love to be seen as the dark horses in this competition.
Prediction: Atletico Madrid 2 PSV Eindhoven 0 (2-0 on aggregate)
Wednesday, March 16
Bayern Munich (2) vs. Juventus (2), Allianz Arena, Munich, 7.45 p.m. GMT/2.45 p.m. ET
Paulo Dybala and Stefano Sturaro picked pretty good times to score their first-ever Champions League goals as Juventus blasted their way back into this tie in the first leg—scoring twice in the final half hour to claim a 2-2 draw.
However, Bayern’s two earlier away goals from Thomas Muller and Arjen Robben mean the advantage is truly with the home side here, with a record 15th Champions League quarter-final looming into view.
The Bavarians have won their last nine home matches in this competition, outscoring their opponents by 36 goals to four as they did so, and while last season’s runners-up will be among the better sides to have visited in that time, the expectation in Munich will be that nine becomes 10.
Pep Guardiola might be feeling less pressure to deliver the Champions League trophy now given that he’ll be off to the Etihad Stadium in the summer come what may, but the Catalan will feel a certain professional pride and duty to deliver on those two away goals that at one stage looked to have ended this tie in Turin.
Juventus are, of course in remarkable form, battling back to once again dominate in Serie A thanks to a run of 18 wins and a draw in their last 19 league matches, but swatting aside opponents in Italy is very different to winning at Bayern, and the Turin giants are probably just going to fall short here.
Prediction: Bayern Munich 1 Juventus 0 (3-2 on aggregate)
Barcelona (2) vs. Arsenal (0), Camp Nou, Barcelona, 7.45 p.m. GMT/2.45 p.m. ET
It took him until 19 minutes from time, but Lionel Messi’s double at the Emirates Stadium on February 23 didn’t so much take this tie away from Arsenal as kick it away from them while also stealing their lunch money.
It was the type of display that once again showed Arsenal lag behind the really big boys when it comes to this competition, with an FA Cup defeat at home to Watford at the weekend and faltering Premier League title ambitions making these testing times for Arsene Wenger.
He’s faced such things before, of course, but there could be a real sense of doom surrounding this trip to face one of the best sides ever assembled at such an uncertain period in his long and illustrious Gunners career.
Wenger doesn’t need this, basically, and Barca aren’t likely to show any mercy as they bid for an extension to their record run of eight successive quarter-finals, club record nine successive European home victories and, of course, the holy grail of becoming the first club to retain the Champions League in its current format.
Messi—who has eight Champions League goals against Arsenal, the joint-most by one player against one opponent—will, of course, be the focus of pre-match attention as he bids for another record, but Barca can get you from all angles these days, and Luis Suarez and Neymar will be keen to improve on what were patchy first-leg displays here.
Both have played their part as Barca have scored 15 goals in their last three La Liga games building up to this, and while most neutrals will sit back and enjoy watching another fantastic display from the hosts, Arsenal fans might want to watch from behind their sofas.
Prediction: Barcelona 3 Arsenal 1 (5-1 on aggregate)
