Will Tennis' Next Star Emerge at Indian Wells?
Indian Wells is the first of tennis’ Masters 1000 tournaments and a barometer for 2016. While superstars Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have historically dominated this event, it could be the coronation of a new star.
What is it about the California desert that creates perhaps the most competitive bracket of the year, and how has it typically foreshadowed the best player for that calendar year?
Could somebody new really emerge to challenge Djokovic, the reigning king of tennis?
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Test of Potential
Winning Indian Wells is perhaps the most legitimate test since legendary young Arthur pulled the sword out of the stone. Anyone who wins here is either a superstar or someone with that kind of potential. This is where a title for a young player can immediately put him in the conversation for winning majors.
It’s no coincidence that Djokovic captured his first Indian Wells title after his breakout win in the 2008 Australian Open. If there was any doubt about his first major win, Indian Wells was the exclamation point on a potentially epic career that has been exponentially fulfilled.
The Serbian superstar won Indian Wells in 2011, 2014 and 2015. He was the best player in each of these years, and 2011 and 2015 were two of the greatest seasons of all time.
Nadal won Indian Wells in 2007, 2009 and 2013, and Federer claimed his trophies from 2004-06 and 2012. Their triumvirate rule at Indian Wells has been almost exclusive, denying other stars like Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka and Juan Martin del Potro. The only real outlier in the last 15 years was Ivan Ljubicic in 2010 (now part of Federer’s coaching team).
Indian Wells is an opportunistic tournament that caters to various players because of its flexible conditions. These are outdoor hard courts with a gritty texture that grips the ball longer and slows the pace, allowing baseliners more time to recover and stay in points. It plays heavier when the cooler night air creates a less lively ball.
For big servers and quick strikers, it still plays faster and with less bounce than red clay, and sliding into a ball is not so necessary unless you note the way Djokovic can burn the rubber with his shoes.
This is a regal setting that attracts the best players. Unless there are injuries (Federer is unable to play right now), few players want to miss this jewel of a tournament. It’s a deep field of athletes who rested or paced themselves in February, all with designs for this crown.
Heirs to the Crown
Djokovic is the strong favorite to win his third consecutive title, but other stars are hungry. Murray and Wawrinka are the usual championship candidates. Veterans like Tomas Berdych and Kei Nishikori would have a new career apex in winning Indian Wells, and it would set them up as valid major contenders.
But how about a coming-out party for an emerging star? There are a handful of talented players born in the 1990s ready to bloom like a desert flower and rise up like its majestic mountains.
- Milos Raonic, newly minted Australian Open semifinalist, has the power and improved skills to show he will be a contender this year. He could get a rematch with Murray in the semifinals to avenge his five-set loss in Melbourne.
- Dominic Thiem, a rising star on clay, added the level-500 title in Mexico last month. It was on hard courts, which bodes well for his development. He’s tough-minded in grinding matches, and we will see if he can leap into the quarterfinals for a measurement against Djokovic.
- Nick Kyrgios will look to bring his big serve into the fourth round for a crack at Murray. He won his first ATP title last month, and after missing his country’s Davis Cup competition, he should be itching to prove that he can make that leap to stardom.
- Grigor Dimitrov is too talented to dismiss, but he’s not playing at the level he showed two years ago. The quarterfinals are not unreasonable given that Nadal is a question mark, and he does have the tools to get through Nishikori. The semifinals are not probable but possible.
- Borna Coric, now ranked No. 47, might be the teenager most likely to win a few matches, although it would be a minor miracle to win Indian Wells in 2016. Maybe 2018 is more realistic.
- There was also American excitement with teenagers Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe squaring off for an opening match on Court 1. Tiafoe was the victor over his familiar juniors rival, so a shot at well-rounded David Goffin could be telling.
Excalibur
With all the talks of new blood on the ATP tour, Djokovic will be reluctant to give up a prized piece of his empire. He knows that it would take a supreme effort from someone else, coupled with a bad day for him, to do anything less than win his record-tying (with Nadal) 27th Masters 1000 title.
He’ll be flashing his racket as if it were Camelot’s greatest weapon, but his conditioning, phenomenal defensive attack and mental fortitude are the real sources of his power.
If somebody beats him, it will take a special effort. Only then would it open up the search for Indian Wells’ newest hero.
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