2016 NFL Draft: Who's Trending in and out of the 1st Round?
Prospects are still feeling the fallout from the 2016 NFL Scouting Combine as they move into their pro days, the next step in the draft process. Those who starred at the combine are trending up toward realizing the dream of landing in the first round of the NFL draft. Those who struggled will have trouble reversing course.
The combine isn’t the only time that prospects can see a boost in their draft stock, though. As important as timed drills, interviews and medical checks are, the game film reigns supreme for evaluators. If you can play at a high level, then the league will give you a chance.
We’ve identified six players who have seen recent changes in their draft stock. Three of them are trending upward and into the first round of the draft. The other three haven’t been as fortunate and may not hear their names called on Day 1.
Who do you think will trend into, or fall out of, the top 31 picks? Make sure you leave your thoughts in the comments section below.
Trending In: William Jackson III, CB, Houston
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Cornerbacks like Houston’s William Jackson III will always shine in the NFL draft process, as teams crave tall, long and speedy athletes in the secondary. Jackson turned heads with a 4.37 40-yard dash at the combine. More importantly, he forced evaluators to go back to his tape and see whether he’s just a fast player or a quality cornerback.
Jackson shows flashes of playmaker potential on his tape. The 6’0”, 189-pound defender logged seven interceptions and two defensive touchdowns along with 33 pass breakups in his last two seasons. He quickly made the transition from Trinity Valley Community College to Houston and showed first-round talent after making the jump.
A good comparison for Jackson is 2015 first-round pick Trae Waynes. He went to the Minnesota Vikings 11th overall because of his physicality and length; he and Jackson have similar statures. Waynes spent most of his rookie year learning the intricacies of the position and should compete to start in 2016.
Jackson should be on the same time frame as Waynes. The Houston product is a very good athlete with ball skills, but rookie cornerbacks face a massive challenge when they transition to the next level. Teams with patience that need cornerback help shouldn’t hesitate to invest a first-round pick in Jackson.
Trending Out: Jaylon Smith, LB, Notre Dame
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When the Notre Dame Fighting Irish entered the Fiesta Bowl against the Ohio State Buckeyes, the game was supposed to be a showcase for a dozen or more future NFL players. Linebacker Jaylon Smith was possibly the most talented player on the field and figured to be a top-10 lock. His blend of size, athleticism, tackling ability and instincts projected well to the next level.
Unfortunately, Smith tore his ACL and LCL early in the game. The fallout since that injury has left teams with considerable concerns about his future. According to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com, multiple teams believe Smith will miss at least 2016 with ankle and nerve issues.
TFY Draft Insider Tony Pauline reported Smith could fall to Day 3 because of the injury. While some may look at the recovery process for NFL players and think Smith is guaranteed to return to his previous form, the risk of his never looking the same again is significant. Major knee injuries are unpredictable throughout recovery since genetics play a big part in what happens.
Smith also dropped out of NFL Media Analyst Daniel Jeremiah’s top 50 because of the injury. Until teams can get another look at his progress at his pro day, Smith is trending downward.
Trending In: Josh Doctson, WR, TCU
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While all the buzz at the combine was focused on Laquon Treadwell and Corey Coleman not running the 40-yard dash, TCU receiver Josh Doctson stole the show. The 6’2”, 202-pound playmaker torched defenses throughout his career. He finished with 214 receptions, 3,177 yards and 34 touchdowns between TCU and Wyoming.
His film is impressive as well. He looked at times like Mike Evans as he snatched contested balls out of the air. But he needed to address looming questions about his overall athleticism at the combine. Doctson responded with a terrific combine show.
He not only ran a solid 4.50 40-yard dash but finished in the 90th percentile of all receivers since 2000 with his 60-yard shuttle, broad jump and vertical jump. He’s an elite athlete in terms of lower-body explosiveness. That fits his tape and should solidify his status as a first-round star.
Teams with a young quarterback should be especially interested in Doctson. His ability to win at the catch point is a huge asset in building trust and chemistry between a passer and his receiver.
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Trending Out: Darian Thompson, FS, Boise State
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Another surprising combine performance came from Boise State safety Darian Thompson. The star defender was one of the most impressive safeties on film, demonstrating great tackling prowess and the ability to find the ball. He finished his career with 133 solo tackles and 17 interceptions.
That type of production generally requires solid athleticism and instincts. While his film indicates he does have the plus instincts and is even a good athlete, Thompson tested terribly. His athletic spider chart on Mock Draftable is highly concerning since he was unable to stand out in any individual test.
Now, Thompson will be re-evaluated to see whether he can do better than his 4.69 40 time. A strong pro day would put Thompson as a legitimate top-32 threat, especially in the mid to late first range.
Single-high safeties must have speed and quickness to maximize their range. All eyes will be on Thompson at his pro day to see if he can prove his combine performance was an anomaly.
Trending In: Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, Oklahoma State
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In the midst of a weak edge-rusher class, Oklahoma State’s Emmanuel Ogbah answered more questions than his competition at the NFL Scouting Combine. The 6’4”, 273-pound defensive end was one of the most productive defenders in the country over the last three seasons. He totaled 133 tackles, 35.5 tackles for loss and 26.5 sacks throughout his career.
Questions about Ogbah’s motor still exist, as he would disappear for stretches of games. When he wanted to turn on the burners, he showed solid speed off the edge and flexibility to bend through contact. His combine was a major step toward locking in his first-round status despite those concerns.
Ogbah’s lower-body explosiveness shows on film, and it translated to excellent marks at the combine. He also ran an impressive 4.63 40-yard dash. According to Mock Draftable, two of his top three athletic comparisons are Aldon Smith and Robert Quinn.
Any athlete with those comparisons and the type of production Ogbah put up warrants a first-round look. He validated his film with a strong combine and should see his name trending upward in NFL circles.
Trending Out: Adolphus Washington, DT, Ohio State
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Despite measuring in at a rock-solid 6’3” and 301 pounds, Ohio State defensive tackle Adolphus Washington had one of the worst combine showings of any participant. A solid outing could have propelled him into the late first-round discussion, but he may fall to Day 3 because his combine was that disastrous. Evaluators must go back to the tape and see if he’s as poor of an athlete as he tested.
Washington participated in every drill at the combine but tested well below average in each category. According to Mock Draftable, none of Washington’s athletic tests measured over the 34th percentile. That’s just not acceptable for a player with Washington’s density.
It would be one thing if Washington’s game wasn’t so reliant on his movement ability. NFL.com's Lance Zierlein highlighted Washington’s athleticism as a key to his success, writing that he’s "at his best on the move. Can be tough to reach and secure for offensive linemen thanks to lateral quicks."
It’s troubling to see a player test so poorly without a trump card to overcome physical limitations. Maybe Washington can turn in a solid pro day to change the direction he is trending. Right now, he is as far from the first round as he could be.
All stats used are from Sports-Reference.com.
Ian Wharton is an NFL Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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