Buy or Sell on Top MLB Prospects Already Turning Heads in Spring Games
Spring training offers fans and teams alike a chance to get a glimpse into the future, with some of baseball's top prospects putting their skills on display for all to see. We've heard the hype; now we finally get to see what it's all about.
Not all top prospects are created equal, of course. Some look like they're ready for prime time, while others leave little doubt that, while talented, there's still lots of development left before they can be considered major league-ready.
When it comes to some of the more impressive position-player prospects, it's important to remember that, this early in spring training, pitchers are more concerned with building up arm strength than results, so they feed batters a healthy dose of fastballs, resulting in some impressive—but misleading—offensive numbers.
That's not to say these prospects aren't talented—they are. So it'd be futile to sit here and buy or sell on a player's skill level. Instead, we'll look at the most impressive top prospects and buy or sell their chances of having an early impact in the big leagues, whether it be on Opening Day or early in the regular season.
Buy: 2B/SS Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves
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2016 Spring Training Stats: 6 G, .600 BA (6-for-10), 1.567 OPS, HR, 4 RBI, 4 R, BB, 0-1 SB
Baseball America Rank: 63
Why We're Buying
Dansby Swanson was supposed to be the middle infield prospect that made things difficult for manager Fredi Gonzalez and the Atlanta Braves, but it's Ozzie Albies, a diminutive teen from Curacao—which produced former Braves slugger Andruw Jones—that's making a push to break camp with the Braves.
“Yeah, he’s been fun to watch,” hitting coach Kevin Seitzer told David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “I’m excited to see what happens as camp unfolds and we see… maybe he might force somebody’s hand. I don’t know.”
Listed at 5'9"—O'Brien notes that he's probably closer to 5'6" or 5'7" and weighs 160 pounds "soaking wet"—Albies is strong for his size. While he lacks significant power, his elite bat speed and terrific batting eye allow him to make consistent hard contact, spraying the ball to all fields.
“In this game it doesn’t matter how big you are,” first base coach Terry Pendleton told O'Brien. “Albies didn’t get here because he had a nonchalant mindset. He got here because he didn’t care what people thought of him. They probably say, ‘Oh, you’re not big enough, you can’t do this, you can’t do that…’ He can do all of it."
Barring an injury or trade, Albies isn't likely to supplant Erick Aybar at shortstop. But it's not out of the question that the switch-hitter could push Gordon Beckham off the 25-man roster as part of a second base platoon with Jace Peterson.
Sell: SS Franklin Barreto, Oakland Athletics
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2016 Spring Training Stats: 4 G, .286 BA (2-for-7), 1.429 OPS, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 3 R, 2 K
Baseball America Rank: 35
MLB.com Rank: 23
Why We're Selling
One of the pieces Oakland got from Toronto in the Josh Donaldson trade, Franklin Barreto has hit pretty much everywhere he's played, including spring training with the A's.
But the 20-year-old's glove is nowhere as advanced as his bat, and when you're playing a premium position like shortstop, defense is important. He's also never played above High-A, and while it's not impossible for a player to make the jump from the low minors to the majors, it hardly ever happens.
Besides, Oakland already has a shortstop in 25-year-old Marcus Semien. While advanced metrics are torn on his defensive chops, he was one of only three shortstops, along with Carlos Correa and Ian Desmond, to hit at least 15 home runs and steal 10 bases last season.
Barreto may ultimately push Semien to another position, but that won't happen until 2017 at the earliest.
Sell: SP Jose De Leon, Los Angeles Dodgers
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2016 Spring Training Stats: 1 G, 0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 2 IP, 2 H, 4 K
Baseball America Rank: 23
MLB.com Rank: 24
Why We're Selling
Jose De Leon's problem isn't a lack of talent—it's that Los Angeles has been overly cautious in bringing him (and fellow stud pitching prospect Julio Urias) along.
With a slew of older, more experienced arms ahead of him on the organizational depth chart, not even injuries to Brett Anderson (back surgery) and Hyun-Jin Ryu (still recovering from 2015 shoulder surgery) are enough to clear a path to the big leagues for the 23-year-old.
Really, it doesn't matter what De Leon does this spring—he's destined to begin the season at Triple-A. He may finally make his major league debut at some point in 2016, but it's not going to be until late in the season; perhaps not until rosters expand in September.
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Buy: SP Michael Fulmer, Detroit Tigers
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2016 Spring Training Stats: 2 G, 0.00 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 4 IP, 2 H, BB, 5 K
Baseball America Rank: 47
MLB.com Rank: 53
Why We're Buying
One of the two pitchers Detroit got from the New York Mets in the Yoenis Cespedes trade (the other, Luis Cessa, was traded to the New York Yankees in the Justin Wilson deal), Michael Fulmer has been impressive in his two spring outings, tossing two innings of perfect ball, fanning three, his last time out.
“Every time I take the mound, I’m always amped up no matter who we’re playing or where I’m at,” Fulmer told the Detroit Free Press' Anthony Fenech. “That’s kind of (my) mentality. Outside the lines, I’m a nice, respectful guy, but between the lines, it’s game on.”
That intensity can sometimes get the best of him, but it also helps to fuel his success. “When he’s able to harness it," catcher James McCann explained to Fenech, "he’s going to be something special.”
While Detroit's rotation is seemingly set, Anibal Sanchez's penchant for injury (he's already missed time with a triceps issue) at least leaves the door open for Fulmer to break camp with the club as a starter. A spot in the Opening Day bullpen can't be completely ruled out, either.
Even if he begins the season back at Triple-A, it won't be long before Fulmer gets the call to the majors.
Sell: Of Nomar Mazara, Texas Rangers
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2016 Spring Training Stats: 4 G, .636 BA (7-for-11), 1.545 OPS, HR, 6 RBI, 3 R, 1 K
Baseball America Rank: 21
MLB.com Rank: 18
Why We're Selling
Texas' outfield was crowded before the Rangers signed Ian Desmond to play some left field. Now with Desmond in the fold—and Shin-Soo Choo, Delino DeShields Jr., Josh Hamilton, Ryan Rua and Justin Ruggiano all on the roster—it's just about ready to burst at the seams.
So it really doesn't matter what Nomar Mazara does this spring. Without a path to regular playing time in the big leagues, there's no reason for him to be anything but an afterthought for the Rangers in 2016—at least until rosters expand in September.
"Mazara is a tremendous talent," writes Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News, "but he would be better served by a full season at the Triple-A level. The Rangers will keep that in mind and overlook the spring numbers."
The same can be said about fellow top 100 prospects Lewis Brinson and Joey Gallo. Riding the bench in the majors does little to help their development.
Unless otherwise noted, all regular season statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. All spring training statistics courtesy of MLB.com.
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
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