Why Aubameyang vs. Lewandowski Will Be the Key Battle in Dortmund vs. Bayern
Saturday's clash between Germany's two best football sides features a lot of great duels. Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich form two poles, at least in the public opinion.
On the one hand, there is the youthful exuberance of the Black and Yellows, while on the other hand, there is the ruthless, cannibal-like, trophy-hunting Bavarians.
Despite the fact Dortmund have been tamed considerably by first-year head coach Thomas Tuchel, who has brought his side more into line with Pep Guardiola's football philosophies, the matchup still has that David versus Goliath feel to it.
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That was certainly evident in the earlier meeting this season, where Bayern gave BVB a thorough drubbing at the Allianz Arena. In that 5-1 win, Guardiola's men mercilessly showed the visitors what a long way they still had to go to really challenge the overpowering FCB.
And yet, on Saturday, Dortmund can reduce their deficit to a mere two points. A true title race might just be on the cards after all.
It is that premise that makes this game even more of a must see than it already is.
Two men will go a long way towards deciding the outcome of this six-pointer: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Robert Lewandowski.
Easily the two most prolific goalscorers of the Bundesliga, the Gabonese and the Pole are their sides' biggest hope and their opponents' biggest dread.
The matchup of these two striking extraordinaires fascinates people around the globe. Asian broadcasting company Star Sports tweeted this video in anticipation of Saturday's game:
It's easy to see why the duel between Aubameyang and Lewandowski is so compelling. They have combined to score 45 league goals this season, with Bayern's No. 9 leading Aubameyang by one goal in the scoring charts. That is more than 15 of 18 Bundesliga clubs have managed as teams.
Lewandowski clearly got the better of the Gabon international in the first meeting of the season. His goal just seconds into the second half was the dagger, especially after Aubameyang had got one back for Dortmund seven minutes before intermission.
The Pole added a second for good measure in the 58th minute, and Dortmund's fate was sealed.
He should find scoring much more difficult at Signal Iduna Park, however. The Black and Yellows have tidied up their defensive frailties from the first half of the season, as their defensive record since the turn of the year proves: They've kept a clean sheet in seven of 10 matches and conceded just three goals in 2016.
In the 5-1 battering in October, Jerome Boateng's long balls over the top of midfield caused havoc among Dortmund's back line. Goalkeeper Roman Burki and team captain Mats Hummels didn't exactly cover themselves in glory, which allowed Thomas Muller to score the opener and Lewandowski to double the lead in the 46th minute.
With Boateng out for the game on Saturday, that weapon isn't available for Guardiola.
It's not like Lewandowski will struggle to fire shots away, however. He leads the league with 129 attempts, meaning he's taking a shot every 15 minutes, per sport magazine Kicker (link in German).
With those numbers in mind, one could expect him to score even more than he does, but, as Dortmund fans will remember from the Pole's highly successful stint with the Black and Yellows, he's not the deadliest of finishers.
His impressive numbers stem from the sheer volume of chances he's involved in. He never needs a rest, having been substituted just once in the entire Bundesliga campaign so far, and always remains hungry for the next goal. No one will ever forget his historic five-goal day against Wolfsburg earlier in the season.
The 27-year-old has scored in each of the three league games against his former club, and chances are he'll do so again. He's scored eight times in the Ruckrunde—as the second half of the season is called in Germany—alone.
After not finding the net in the shocking 2-1 home less to Mainz in midweek, he'll be out to make amends. Lewandowski has gone scoreless for two league games in a row just once in the entire season, during a three-game stretch without a goal in late November and early December.
Aubameyang also didn't score in midweek, when Dortmund beat Darmstadt fairly comfortably 2-0, but it wasn't a big surprise. Since his goal against Bayern on October 4, the 26-year-old has added just two goals away from home in nine games.
He has "dropped off, ever so slightly, performancewise," judged Raphael Honigstein for ESPN FC. One could even go further and say that Aubameyang's running hot and cold in 2016. Missing relative sitters in a number of games, most notably at Borussia Monchengladbach in January and at Darmstadt, he's simply not close to his self from the first half of the season.
His numbers don't quite show it, as he's scoring with every fourth shot this season, per Kicker (link in German), but he's suffering from his side's more balanced approach in the Ruckrunde.
As Honigstein put it, Dortmund don't "play with the same devastating fluidity" from the first half of the season. They have committed to more defensive stability, with good success, as their defensive record shows, but at the attack's cost.
It's tough to argue with Tuchel's approach, seeing as his side are unbeaten in 2016, but it helps explain why Aubameyang doesn't reach the standards he set before the turn of the year.
Lucky for him and Dortmund, Saturday's game takes place at the Westfalenstadion. As ESPN FC's Stephan Uersfeld noted, "Aubameyang is only one step away from equalling a 43-year-old league record."
Thanks to a last-second tap in in the 3-1 comeback win over 1899 Hoffenheim on Matchday 23, he's scored in 11 consecutive home games, "and he could equal the record currently held by Jupp Heynckes and Gerd Muller in Dortmund's meeting with Bayern," per Uersfeld.
The last time Aubameyang didn't score in front of his own fans was in a 2-0 win over Hertha in May 2015.
Unlike Lewandowski, who'll have to battle with Mats Hummels in his best shape since the 2014 FIFA World Cup, the Gabonese could have a field day against Bayern's patchwork defence.
The absence of Boateng has thrown the Bavarian giants into a bit of a loop. Since Holger Badstuber is out as well and last-minute signing Serdar Tasci hasn't shown he can be of any substantial help, Guardiola has had to make do with a centre-back pairing of Joshua Kimmich and David Alaba a number of times in recent weeks.
The Austrian is, oddly enough, a very good fit for the matchup with Aubameyang due to his own pace, but 21-year-old Kimmich has been a liability in defence. The defensive midfielder not only lacks physical strength and height, which might not be too big a deal against Dortmund anyway, but he has also shown a propensity to make mistakes in positioning and decision-making.
Mehdi Benatia returned to the lineup for the midweek game against Mainz, but with the 28-year-old having just come back from a lengthy muscle injury and being injury prone in general—he's missed a total of 28 games since moving to Bayern in August of 2014, per Transfermarkt.co.uk—Guardiola might deem it too risky to play him twice in a span of four days.
The matchup and his streak at home seem to favour Aubameyang, while Lewandowski is on a better run of form in 2016. It wouldn't be a surprise to see both bag a goal or two.
The game will be shaped by others as well, of course, but it's not a stretch to say that the winner of the duel between the two wonder strikers should see his side win the three points.
Lars Pollmann is a Featured Columnist writing on Borussia Dortmund. He also writes for YellowWallPod.com. You can follow him on Twitter.
