How Franchise Tag Deadline Decisions Impact 2016 NFL Free Agency

Tag! You're it! And by "it," I mean loaded.

Because on Tuesday in the NFL, if a team tagged you, it meant a fat payday in 2016.

Yes, players, in general, don't like being tagged. They would much prefer the long-term financial security that comes with a juicy extension packed with guaranteed money.

Of course, I'd like to win the Powerball too. And a fully guaranteed salary that's the average of the top-five players at a given position isn't dog food.

However, shelling out that much coin to players on a one-year deal can have a ripple effect, especially for teams that don't have a lot of wiggle room. Securing one player's services ensures that others are going to hit the open market next week, whether teams want them to or not.

That, in turn, can send waves across the NFL—nevermind those players who teams chose not to tag.

With the deadline to tag players now passed, we know who's it. Who ain't. And whose phones will soon be ringing off the hook.

Now let's take a look at the impact of it all.

See You Later, Osemele

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

On it's surface, there's nothing wrong with the Baltimore Ravens using the franchise tag on kicker Justin Tucker, per ESPN.com's Jamison Hensley. It's a move that was widely expected to happen.

And it's a well-deserved payday for Tucker, who will make more in 2016 ($4.572 million) than he made in his first four seasons combined. The 26-year-old has connected on nearly 88 percent of his career field-goal attempts, and he hit all 29 of his extra points in 2015.

No, tagging Tucker isn't the problem. The situation it puts them in with guard Kelechi Osemele is.

As Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun reports, with the tag off the table, Osemele (despite a standing offer from the Ravens) looks destined to hit the open market, where quality linemen can rake in monster paydays:

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I’ve heard no definitive updates from either side on the Ravens’ negotiations with pending free-agent offensive lineman Kelechi Osemele. That’s not surprising, and Ravens coach John Harbaugh acknowledged that the organization fully expects Osemele and his agent to shop the offer.

Look, I don’t know what’s going through Osemele’s head right now, but put yourself in his shoes for a moment: In about 10 days, he could enter a free-agent market that is overflowing with teams who have offensive line needs and millions of dollars to spend. The 26-year-old, who won a Super Bowl ring as a rookie, can pretty much name his team and his price.

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It's that name-his-own-price part that could mean trouble for Baltimore. Osemele was Pro Football Focus' 13th-ranked guard in 10 games last year. The season before, he was tied for sixth.

The market for a 26-year-old lineman with that sort of resume will be robust. Probably more robust than a Ravens team with the fourth-least cap space in the NFL can afford.

And at that point, Baltimore may find it harder to replace a guard than a kicker.

Gang Green Is Seeing Red

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Much as with the Ravens and Tucker, you won't hear this writer complain about the Jets' decision to apply the franchise tag to defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson. Elite pass-rushers just now entering the prime of their careers do not grow on trees.

In fact, I'm on board with ESPN.com's Rich Cimini, who wrote that a proposed tag-and-trade involving Wilkerson would be ill-advised:

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The franchise tag doesn't tie Wilkerson to the Jets for the 2016 season. I believe they will explore the possibility of a tag-and-trade, looking to see if they can find a deal that would justify trading their top defensive player from 2015. Good luck with that. Even though he's one of the top free agents, it'll be hard to find a team willing to meet his asking price (figure north of $40 million in guarantees) and compensate the Jets with an attractive pick and/or players.

The bigger question is why even consider a tag-and-trade? Well, the team has cap issues and moving Wilkerson would free up the $15.7 million. The Jets already have a lot of resources invested in the defensive line, and they'll have to pour more into it to retain Damon Harrison, a pending free agent. In my opinion, it would be an ill-advised decision to trade Wilkerson. He's only 26, one of the top defensive linemen in the NFL. The idea is to keep good players, not send them packing.

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However, there's also no denying that with only about $6.7 million in cap space remaining at present, the Jets are now in some hot water.

It isn't just the matter of Harrison, who topped 70 tackles and ranked second among all defensive tackles versus the run in 2015, per Pro Football Focus. The quarterback position also has to be addressed.

Yes, Ryan Fitzpatrick is a 33-year-old journeyman signal-caller who has bounced all over the NFL. However, Fitzpatrick is also a 33-year-old journeyman coming off the best season of his career in a league where even semi-capable quarterbacks make gonzo money.

Cimini remains confident the Jets and the Beard can work something out:

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The question is, what is the true value of a 33-year-old journeyman who already has reached his ceiling? The key will be the structure of the contract. Look for a front-loaded contract that could include anywhere from $10 million to $14 million in guarantees. In terms of the entire package, it could be three or four years with an APY (average per year) of $8 million to $10 million. Fitzpatrick would be nuts to leave the Jets. He has a high comfort level with coordinator Chan Gailey and his receivers, and the fan base likes him.

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There's only so much that can be done within the structure of a deal, though, and as things stand today, the Jets don't have the money to keep their quarterback off the open market. And once he hits it, anything can happen—including disaster for a Jets team that narrowly missed the playoffs last year.

Even if they do manage to shoehorn a deal for Fitz before free agency opens, that would leave nothing for Harrison. Or any other free agents. Or the incoming rookies.

The next week is going to be a busy one for general manager Mike Maccagnan.

Von Not Gone...So Who Is?

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Much like the Jets, the Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos put the clamps on their star pass-rusher, slapping the franchise tag on outside linebacker Von Miller, per ESPN.com.

In fact, the Broncos went one better. They used the exclusive rights tag. Super Bowl 50's MVP isn't leaving. No way. No how.

"Designating Von as our franchise player gives us the time to continue working toward a long-term agreement," general manager John Elway said in a statement. "We've had productive talks with Von's representation, and we'll continue those discussions with the goal of making sure Von remains a Bronco well into the future."

That long-term deal is going to be a whopper. And the ramifications of that deal (and the tag) leaves Elway and the Broncos with work to do.

After all, Miller is hardly the team's only free agent. Defensive end Malik Jackson appears headed for a payday north of $10 million a season. Running backs Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson are both set to hit the open market. So is inside linebacker Danny Trevathan.

The same is true for quarterback Brock Osweiler. And if you'd like to see what a bidding war looks like, drop a young passer with some modicum of NFL success under his belt into the free-agent pool.

Making matters worse, the Broncos currently sit about $2 million over the projected salary cap. That means fat will need to be trimmed. Quite a lot of it. Starting with...a Hall of Fame quarterback?

According to Fox Sports' Alex Marvez, Peyton Manning's days in Denver are done. If the five-time NFL MVP announces he wishes to play football in 2016, it's going to be somewhere else. The Broncos are already counting Manning's $19 million salary as being back on their books.

That will get Osweiler back, maybe with enough left for a running back and possibly even Trevathan thrown in. However, in order to bring Jackson back, the knife will have to come back out.

As ESPN.com's Jeff Legwold reported recently, that could mean curtains for DeMarcus Ware in Denver, too:

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Miller said he has “no doubt’’ Ware will return for his third season with the Broncos -- Ware’s 12th overall -- but Ware did miss five games with a back injury this past season with plenty of back/neck troubles previously in his career. His $11.67 million cap figure will likely be looked to for some adjustment. So, if he chooses to retire or does not want to re-work the deal at least somewhat, there is a chance he would not remain.

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Bringing Miller back was the easy call. Now things get more difficult.

Jackpot!

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The transition tag is a lot like Congress. A lot of noise gets made when it's used, but at the end of the day, it doesn't really do anything.

The way it works is simple. In assigning the tag to defensive end Olivier Vernon, the Miami Dolphins agree to pay the 25-year-old about $12.7 million in 2016, according to ESPN.com's James Walker.

Vernon is still open to negotiate with other teams. If he signs an offer sheet, the Dolphins can match. If they choose not to, they get a fat bag of nothing in return.

As Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald wrote, it shows that the Dolphins have a number in mind for Vernon—and that number isn't the $15 million and change he would have made under the franchise tag:

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If Vernon goes out and gets even one offer that pays in the $15-$16 million per year range with significant guaranteed money, he's gone. The Dolphins will not match it. They proved that today by not tagging Vernon at that rate.

And the transition tag comes with zero draft choice compensation. Those are the rules.

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The move had precedence in South Beach. A year ago, the team applied the same tag to tight end Charles Clay. He's in Buffalo now.

And John Kosko of Pro Football Focus believes the two teams with the most cap space in the NFL this year should do just what the Bills did last season. Make Vernon an offer the Dolphins won't (or can't) match:

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The Jaguars and Raiders are two teams that should pursue signing Vernon. The Jaguars have the most cap space in the NFL, and would easily be able to work out a deal that would make it impossible for Miami to match. While they will see Dante Fowler return from a torn ACL that sidelined him for his rookie season, he is still an unknown commodity. The Jaguars had just three front-seven players grade positively in pass rushing, with LB Telvin Smith being the only starter to do so.

The Raiders are a team that have been on the right track with GM Reggie McKenzie running the team. He’s building through the draft while picking solid pieces in free agency. With Vernon pairing with Khalil Mack, the Raiders’ defense would be devastating on opposing offenses, akin to what the Broncos deploy in Miller and DeMarcus Ware. With $74.5 million in cap space, they also can write up a contract offer that would deter Miami from matching.

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It shouldn't be too hard to structure a contract offer Miami isn't able to match. After all, as things sit right now, the Dolphins are in the worst cap situation in the AFC.

Of all the players tagged Tuesday, Vernon's future is the least certain. What is certain is that the floor for his 2016 salary has been set at well over $12 million.

In other words, it's a good day to be Olivier Vernon.

Gonna Be Quiet in D.C. Next Week

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

In an election year, it will be anything but quiet in the nation's capital between now and November. But when free agency opens in a week, it's going to be crickets at the headquarters of the Washington Redskins.

As Fox Sports' Chris Chase reported, the team has now committed to paying quarterback Kirk Cousins almost $20 million in 2016. But after a career year that culminated in an NFC East title and the franchise record for passing yards in a season, can you blame them?

Still, some (including Chase) think it's a good idea for Washington and Cousins to come together and hammer out a long-term deal with all due haste:

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This doesn't mean Washington made a bad move in tagging Cousins. It could have a "real" quarterback for the first time since Joe Theismann. But that's also why it makes sense for the Redskins to get a long-term deal done. They can keep franchising Cousins and taking up massive cap space (Cousins will have the most base pay of any NFL player next season) or they can accept that they essentially raised the market on their quarterback, suck it up and give him something like $16 million per year -- Andy Dalton, Sam Bradford and Alex Smith money.

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There's another reason (besides lowering his annual salary a bit) why the Redskins almost have to at least kick the tires on an extension, even if it's risky after one good year. If they don't, they won't be adding any pieces around Cousins in free agency.

Per Spotrac, Washington is more than $6 million over the projected salary cap for 2016 thanks to Cousins' new payday. That means no signing any free agents of note. No bringing back its own free agents like running back Alfred Morris or linebacker Keenan Robinson. And potentially having to cut higher-priced veterans like defensive end Jason Hatcher or even wideout DeSean Jackson.

As many NFL teams do every year (looking at you, Dallas), the Redskins will push some money down the road to create some room. But it won't be much. Certainly not enough for the team to be as aggressive in free agency as it has been in recent years. 

Donald Loose from the Penn

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As rare as it is for a quarterback with a pulse to ever sniff the open market, it's equally unusual for blindside protectors to hit free agency. Assuming, that is, that they're any good at the whole protecting thing.

As ESPN.com's Mike Rodak reported, the Buffalo Bills made sure their left tackle won't hit free agency, tagging Cordy Glenn at about $13.7 million for 2016.

However, it appears the Oakland Raiders may be prepared to let veteran Donald Penn dip his toes in the water. Despite a report from NFL Media Insider Ian Rapoport (h/t Marc Sessler of NFL.com) that the Raiders want the 32-year-old Penn back, the deadline came and went without any movement on a new contract.

It's a curious move for a Raiders team swimming in cap space. Sure, Penn is no spring chicken, but he's a durable, capable tackle who hasn't missed a start since 2007 and who graded out as a top-10 performer at his position in each of his two seasons in Oakland, according to PFF.

If nothing else, Penn's age made him a prime candidate for the tag. Yes, it's a lot of money, but the Raiders can afford it and need to keep young quarterback Derek Carr comfortable in the pocket.

There's still time to work out an extension, and if Penn likes it in Oakland, the Raiders can certainly make a competitive offer. They won't be the only team making one, though.

If a contender comes calling and Penn decides to chase a championship in the sunset of his career, the Silver and Black could easily be left holding the bag.

Hamster for Sale!

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Around this time last year, no one batted an eye when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers chose not to pick up the fifth-year option on running back Doug Martin. After blowing up for nearly 2,000 total yards as a rookie, Martin failed to gain even 500 yards on the ground in either 2013 or 2014.

Um, oops.

The Muscle Hamster roared back to life last season, rushing for 1,402 yards at 4.9 yards a pop. Only Adrian Peterson of the Minnesota Vikings gained more yardage. No back with over 200 carries averaged more.

However, with the franchise tag number for running backs being set at almost $12 million in 2016, the Buccaneers bit the bullet and chose not to tag Martin, paving the way for him to hit free agency next week.

In fact, while speaking to Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times, general manager Jason Licht sounded like a man who realized he may just have sent one of his offensive centerpieces packing:

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We really like Charles Sims. We think he can carry the ball. We think he's more valuable in the passing game. … And the thing about Charles Sims is he's never been thrust into the role where he's a workhorse. So you never know how that would work out. But we do like everything about him.

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Still, given that only five NFL teams have more cap room than the Bucs, it's equally possible that all Licht did was save his squad some cabbage. As good as Martin was last year, he'll probably be lucky to get half that amount in annual salary on the open market.

If only Chip Kelly's team were in a position to overpay for a running back similar to DeMarco Murray a year ago... wouldn't that be something?

Cornering the Market

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To the surprise of absolutely no one, the NFC champion Carolina Panthers placed the franchise tag on All-Pro cornerback Josh Norman, per ESPN's David Newton, which will cost them just under $14 million in 2016.

However, more than a few eyebrows went up when the Los Angeles Rams did the same with fifth-year pro Trumaine Johnson, according to Kevin Patra of NFL.com, who picked off seven passes a season ago.

It just goes to show (as does the position's robust tag number) the premium placed on young cover cornerbacks in today's pass-heavy NFL.

However, hope springs eternal for teams looking to address the position in free agency. The Rams' placement of the franchise tag on Johnson means batterymate Janoris Jenkins, a ball-hawking 27-year-old with five career interceptions returned for touchdowns, will hit the open market.

Cincinnati's Adam Jones isn't young, but the 32-year-old was a top-15 performer at his position last year, according to PFF. As Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk wrote, Jones isn't ruling out any teams for what may well be his last contract:

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I want to play for any team that wants me. I’m a guy that really wants to win. I love the game of football, I’m passionate about it. I study hard, I play hard. There’s not a guy that’s around that’s gonna tell you I don’t study hard, don’t practice hard, don’t play hard. I’m open, man, I don’t have one team that I have to go to this team. I’m pretty much open as long as we got a good chance of winning.

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In the middle of the two lies Kansas City's Sean Smith. For the second time in his career, the 28-year-old finds himself on the open market, and PFF's No. 17 cornerback last year will all but surely command quite a bit more than the $16.5 million over three years he got from the Chiefs back in 2013.

Like, say, twice as much per season, give or take.

Hey, I said there were cornerbacks available. I didn't say they would be cheap.

Best of the Rest

Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Much of this article focused on the players whom the franchise tag removed from the open market and the effect those tags had on both the teams and positions involved. However, the cupboard isn't entirely bare for teams like the Raiders and Jaguars with money to burn and holes to fill.

With that in mind, here's a look at some of the best options available post-tag to teams in a buying mood come next week.

Chase Daniel, Kansas City Chiefs: OK, the cupboard is bare at quarterback. But it's a reality of today's QB-starved NFL. The only players who sniff the open market are like Daniel and Drew Stanton—career backups some club will have to delude themselves into believing are worth a look as a starter.

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears: The 30-year-old tailback has topped 1,200 total yards in each of his eight NFL seasons, but the market for running backs his age has been whisper-quiet in recent years. As Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports wrote, speculation has linked the Patriots (who aren't shy about adding veteran free agents at the right price) to the two-time Pro Bowler. 

Marvin Jones, Cincinnati Bengals: With Alshon Jeffery receiving the franchise tag from the Chicago Bears, per Rapoport (h/t Kevin Patra of NFL.com), Jones becomes the top available receiver in a thin market despite never amassing even 850 receiving yards in a season. Still, at just 25 years old, Jones could be in for a big payday. 

Russell Okung, Seattle Seahawks: One of the top tackle options who could see the open market, Okung told ESPN.com's Sheil Kapadia he knows what that could mean. "I know my value, and I'm not going to settle for anything less than that. If it works out [in Seattle], great. And if it doesn't, that's great as well."

Jason Pierre-Paul, New York Giants: Of all the players hitting free agency next week, there isn't one facing a more uncertain market than the Giants pass-rusher. Will suitors see the dominant player who exploded for 16.5 sacks in 2011 or the Pierre-Paul who lost part of his right hand in a fireworks accident last summer, causing him to miss eight games and record just one sack in 2015?  

Reggie Nelson, Cincinnati Bengals: Alongside Eric Weddle of the San Diego Chargers, Nelson is the best of the available safeties after the Kansas City Chiefs franchise-tagged Eric Berry, according to ESPN.com's Adam Teicher. Both are the wrong side of 30, and Weddle's had the better career. But it's Nelson who shined in 2015, tying for the NFL lead with eight interceptions.