
Burning Questions Heading into the 2016 NFL Scouting Combine
With the NFL combine starting Tuesday, there isn't much time to cram for the event. The all-star showcase games are over, meaning this is one last time for the league's scouting staffs and general managers to collect in the same place for the offseason.
You'll hear plenty of rumors from discussions in Indianapolis this week. Last year, the buzz in Lucas Oil Stadium entrenched Jameis Winston so deeply as the favorite to go first overall that rarely did a mock have him going anywhere other than Tampa Bay.
This week isn't just about decision-makers bumping elbows. There are sets of on-field drills and meetings each player will go through as the largest job interview they will ever experience. We'll go through the eight players whose draft stock would be most altered by their trip to Indiana and why their specific narratives demand excellence in a specific drill or in conferences.
Jared Goff's Hand Size
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The scouting combine goes beyond 40-yard dashes and frame measurements. It's also a time for teams to register hand size for quarterbacks, which has been a decent indicator of NFL success—not so much from the standpoint of "if you have big hands, you're a future All-Pro," but from the stance that "if you don't have at least nine-inch hands, you're probably going to fail."
That threshold isn't a death sentence for passers, but it's close. There's Michael Vick, who went first overall, and there's Tony Romo, who went undrafted; but outside of those names, there aren't any in over two decades who were "franchise quarterbacks" under that filter.
Jared Goff, who could be the first quarterback selected if the draft were held today, played in sunny California for the Golden Bears. Because of the weather he typically played in on the West Coast in the fall, it was hard to get a grasp on how well he grips the football.
One game that will stand out in his deep film evaluation, though, is his true freshman effort against the Oregon Ducks in a downpour in Autzen Stadium.
The Bears' first drive ended in a Goff fumble. Their next three drives also ended on fumbles, one each by running backs Brendan Bigelow and Khalfani Muhammad and another by Goff. On the fifth drive of the game, Goff threw three passes for two yards in a three-and-out effort. He was pulled after that, finishing the day with seven passes for 11 yards and a 0.7 QBR mark.
There's enough circumstantial evidence in Goff's past to bring up the question of his hand size but without conviction. If he doesn't meet the mark in Indianapolis, the narrative on the Air Raid quarterback can change quickly.
Robert Nkemdiche's Interviews
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Robert Nkemdiche is incredibly talented. When the big lights are on in major games, he'll throw around Alabama's offensive linemen like they're stuffed animals. With that being said, he hasn't improved much between his true freshman season—when he showed up to Oxford as Mississippi's biggest recruiting get in the history of the program—and his true junior season, which ended early after a bowl game suspension.
The defensive lineman played everywhere for the Rebels, from a pass-rushing edge defender to a 0-technique nose guard. At the NFL level, he will likely be looked at as a 3-technique under tackle, a one-gap player whose job is to cause chaos and disruption in one-on-one situations.
For a team to even look at him as a potential starter, though, it'll need to come to terms with his past. Nkemdiche's suspension stemmed from a marijuana possession charge and the star defensive lineman falling out of a hotel window in his native Georgia. There's also a Snapchat screenshot, allegedly of the potential first-round pick taking a bong rip, as reported by Fox Sports' Clay Travis.
Nkemdiche also will likely field questions about his older brother Denzel, who was a senior on the Mississippi football team and hospitalized in December after being found unresponsive, per Sarah Fowler of the Clarion-Ledger. This was after a trip to an intensive care unit in November 2015. No cause has been given for either.
NFL teams are going to have squads of decision-makers and scouts looking him in his eyes, asking him about his past. His responses could decide whether he lands as a top-five pick or takes the Justin Houston tumble out of the first two rounds. With the news of Randy Gregory's four-game suspension fresh, he'll need to prove he has his act together.
Noah Spence's Interviews
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Like Robert Nkemdiche, Noah Spence is a top-five talent who has character red flags in his past. He was a star at Ohio State, but after two failed drug tests, the Big Ten banned him and he was released from the program.
The pass-rusher is more dynamic at getting after quarterbacks than Joey Bosa, his former Buckeye teammate who is being considered a top-10 lock. Spence was hidden at Eastern Kentucky, an FCS school, in 2015, after missing 2014 because a drug suspension.
Spence talked with Fox Sports' Bruce Feldman about his failed tests, which he says were caused by ecstasy, and seems to have his head on straight now.
""I had to cut those people out of my life,” he said. "Once I figured that out and that those people don't have my best interest at heart, it was easier to cut those people out of my life. I blocked all those numbers and got a new phone so I wouldn't know those numbers and they wouldn't be able to contact me. I'm never going to see those people again.”
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With his issues further in the past than Nkemdiche's, it should be less of a concern but still one that is going to be weighted heavily. After he showed up as the most dominant player at both the Senior Bowl and against Kentucky, a Power Five opponent, his talent isn't in question.
Laquon Treadwell's 40-Yard Dash
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I'm not a big proponent of using the 40-yard dash to test athleticism for football players, as lower body explosion and agility, which are tested in every other on-field drill, are more important than long speed. Still, the positions it matters the most for are receivers, cornerbacks and special teamers—players who have to hit a full sprint in space by nature.
The consensus top receiver in this class is Laquon Treadwell of Mississippi. He was a super recruit who spent three years in Oxford, looking like a young Dez Bryant, before declaring for the draft.
Treadwell's a good distance ahead of the other receivers in this draft class on most media boards, but that could change in Indianapolis. According to Tony Pauline of DraftInsider.net and Eagles.com, those around Treadwell will be satisfied if he runs a 4.5-second 40-yard dash.
On film, Treadwell is dynamic and aggressive, but his long speed doesn't hit the top notch you'd want to see from a first-round pick. He's mean, blocks well and can move with the ball in his hands, but some teams may end up overlooking him by asking themselves questions like "Is he just a more polished Josh Huff?" should he run slower than a 4.5.
Jonathan Bullard's 10-Yard Split
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For interior defensive linemen, their step to contact is the most important part of their game. They can either end up in the backfield or on their back in a second. At the college level, there are ways to gain an advantage that aren't available in the pros.
Cadences are much more basic at the college level, which can lead to pattern matching from defensive linemen. Essentially, they are able to jump the snap, cheating a bit to take their step as an offensive lineman is still getting out of his stance.
Jerel Worthy is a key example of how this doesn't translate to the next level. The Michigan State defensive tackle was a second-round pick, and after four years, he hasn't accomplished much of anything in five stints with different franchises.
Jonathan Bullard of Florida has shown the tendency to cheat while playing for the Florida Gators. He's listed as a defensive end, but if he's going to make a name for himself at the next level, it's as a packaged interior rusher. The combine will be a true test for him, in both the 10-yard split, which is taken from the 40-yard dash, the broad jump and the vertical jump.
All three test lower body explosion, which translates to true first-step ability. If Bullard hits below average in those categories, it could be a steep drop for the lineman, as interior penetration is the big positive on his scouting report.
Jalen Ramsey's Overall Combine
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Florida State's Jalen Ramsey has been the talk of the draft cycle. He made the first splash of his career at safety, but he transitioned to cornerback full time last year. As far as cornerback prospects go, he and Eli Apple, a raw sophomore declaration from Ohio State, are the only potential first-round picks who measure in at 6'0" or taller.
Ramsey has been tabbed as an amazing athlete because of his background with the Seminole track team, but his film doesn't show that he's among the elite at his position. He appears to have good, but not great, upside. I'd be shocked if he performed like Byron Jones of Connecticut did last year.
Ramsey's 40-yard-dash time may be closer to 4.5 seconds than 4.4 seconds, but the agility drills and the vertical jump are going to be as important for his evaluation, too. Long speed matters for recovery, but the ability to high-point the ball and fluid hips are also premium traits for outside corners.
Joey Bosa's 3-Cone
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Joey Bosa is a known product. He's been sacking quarterbacks since his true freshman year at Ohio State in 2013. Still, his skill set isn't exactly what you'd think of as one of the premier pass-rushers.
He's not Von Miller. He's more of a power-rusher than an edge-bender. Still, you have to be able to counter with both power and bending moves if you want to live in the NFL and stick with a 10-year career as an edge defender, which is what is expected of Bosa at this point.
Explosion can be tested through the 10-yard split, broad jump and vertical jump. Bosa will be fine in all of those aspects, possibly even elite. The three-cone is where hip flexibility is measured, though, and that's where the former Buckeye's future is in question.
Ideally, premier pass-rushers have three-cone times around the seven-second mark. If Bosa is able to hit near that range, he'll lock up his stock as a top-five pick. Should he fall far off that mark, though, there will be real questions as to whether he can attack the outside lane against NFL offensive tackles. He made his mark going inside in college—a tougher path to success at the professional level.
Leonard Floyd's Weight
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Pass-rushers make more money than linebackers, and Leonard Floyd has the flexibility to play both. If you had the chance to do either, wouldn't you go toward the money, everything else being equal? That's basically where Floyd sits, other than one fairly large concern: He was listed around 230 pounds for the majority of his career at the University of Georgia.
Vic Beasley from Clemson was the "tweener" pass-rusher last year, but he was able to bulk up to 246 pounds between the season and the combine. If Floyd is able to get in that slot, hovering around the 250 pounds, he will earn himself consideration as an edge defender at the next level.
There aren't many full-time NFL pass-rushers, or even sub-package players, playing in the 230s. If Floyd wants to make himself known as a pass-rusher, he needs to take steps toward that goal in Indianapolis.
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