Sleeper Rankings for the 2016 NCAA Tournament
The only thing harder than trying to predict which teams will earn No. 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament might be picking the schools that have the best shot to knock off those top seeds and make a surprise run.
With the way the 2015-16 college basketball season has gone, don't be surprised to see a larger-than-normal number of upsets early on in the NCAA tourney. This won't just be from upstart mid-major programs hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. They'll also come from sleeper teams that can make noise beyond the opening round when their seeds indicates they should be out quickly.
For the purpose of this story, we're considering a sleeper as any team that's likely to end up getting seeded sixth or worse but (depending on its draw) could make it to at least the Sweet 16. Last year's NCAA tournament saw five such teams advance to the second weekend, with Michigan State advancing to the Final Four as a No. 7 seed.
We've ranked the best potential NCAA tournament sleepers based on their team makeup, coaching and how they're playing heading into March.
NOTE: Projected seeds are based on average position in published brackets tracked by BracketMatrix.com as of Monday, Feb. 22.
8. VCU
1 of 8
Record: 20-7; 12-2, Atlantic 10
Projected seed: No. 11
VCU has history as a sleeper, having gone from the First Four to the Final Four in 2011 as a No. 11 seed. The Rams might need to go the same route this year despite being at the top of their league with two weeks left in the regular season.
They're on the bubble now because of a lack of quality nonconference wins and a recent two-game losing streak that included a loss to 12-14 Massachusetts. And with remaining trips to George Washington and Dayton, they've still got work to do just to get into the NCAA tournament.
Assuming a bid, though, the Rams can catch fire quickly. Shaka Smart moved on to Texas, but his style of play is still being used by new coach (and former assistant) Will Wade. VCU forces 16.7 turnovers and grabs 9.7 steals per game.
7. Alabama
2 of 8
Record: 16-10; 7-7, SEC
Projected seed: No. 11
Before losing at home to Mississippi State on Saturday, Alabama was arguably the SEC's hottest team and had likely played its way into the NCAA tournament. There's less wiggle room now, but this is a program that's hungry for a bid, and the Crimson Tide are feeding off first-year coach Avery Johnson's intensity.
Despite having never held the job at the college level, the former NBA coach has piloted the Tide to a 5-5 mark against Top 50 RPI teams, including three straight over Texas A&M, Florida and LSU. Five players have made at least 30 three-pointers, including New Mexico transfer Arthur Edwards, and they're holding opponents to 40.1 percent shooting.
Alabama is 7-6 in road and neutral-site games this season, and earlier this year it knocked off Wichita State (without Fred VanVleet, however) and Notre Dame at a tournament in Florida.
Alabama, which last made the NCAA tournament in 2012, hasn't reached the Sweet 16 since 2004.
6. Texas
3 of 8
Record: 18-10; 9-6, Big 12
Projected seed: No. 6
Baylor beat the Longhorns by 14 in Austin on Saturday, yet even with a quick turnaround Texas didn't look lethargic or lack confidence in a hard-fought win at Kansas State on Monday. This is a testament to the approach Shaka Smart has taken in his first season, choosing to be positive rather than lay into his players when they play poorly.
"These guys don't respond well to going off on them," Smart said Saturday, per Mike Finger of the San Antonio Express-News.
The win over the Wildcats was a sign this Texas team is able to shake off the past, which bodes well for March. That's because its first NCAA tournament game would be coming only a few days after having played one to three games in as many days in the ultra-deep Big 12 tournament, and the last one would probably be a loss.
The Longhorns have had to learn to bounce back throughout the season, such as when they beat West Virginia for the second time earlier this month despite having just lost consecutive games at Oklahoma and Iowa State.
5. California
4 of 8
Record: 19-8; 9-5, Pac-12
Projected seed: No. 7
The one major knock against California before Feb. 18 was its horrible home/road split, with just one victory outside of Berkeley. The Golden Bears are now 3-8 in non-home games after sweeping Washington and Washington State, eliminating any concern they'd struggle to play without a large helping of home fans.
Now it's just a matter of whether a team that only has one contributor with NCAA tournament experience—senior guard Tyrone Wallace, who is second on the team in scoring—can put it all together in March.
Cal is trending upward, having won five straight, including a victory over Pac-12 co-leader Oregon, with the recent run triggered by highly touted freshman wing Jaylen Brown. He became the primary scorer when Wallace missed five games due to injury from Jan. 1 to Feb. 6, and he's maintained that pace since Wallace's return.
The Bears haven't made the Sweet 16 since 1997, in former coach Ben Braun's first season. Current coach Cuonzo Martin, in his second year with Cal, took Tennessee to the Sweet 16 two seasons ago.
4. Saint Joseph's
5 of 8
Record: 22-5; 11-3, Atlantic 10
Projected seed: No. 8
Phil Martelli has his best team since the 2003-04 squad that went unbeaten in the regular season and reached the Elite Eight. He doesn't have a duo as good as Jameer Nelson and Delonte West, but DeAndre Bembry and Isaiah Miles are still pretty good.
The duo combines to average 34.6 points and 16.2 rebounds per game, making the Hawks the only Division I school with two players averaging at least 16 points and seven rebounds. They combined for 51 points in Saturday's loss at Davidson, but the game before, each guy had a double-double in a win over Dayton.
Bembry and Miles have played together for three seasons, and each was on the Saint Joseph's team that took eventual national champion Connecticut to overtime in the second round of the 2014 NCAA tourney.
3. Texas Tech
6 of 8
Record: 17-9; 7-7, Big 12
Projected seed: No. 7
The Big 12 has once again made its case for being Division I's top conference, with most projections having seven of the 10 schools making the NCAA tournament for a second consecutive season. And while most of the attention has understandably been on the top tier of teams that could either get No. 1 seeds or make a run to the Final Four, Texas Tech is making sure the middle group gets noticed.
The Red Raiders are the hottest squad in a hot league, having won four straight, including wins over ranked teams Iowa State, Baylor and Oklahoma. Barring a late collapse, they'll be making their first NCAA tournament since 2007 in Bobby Knight's second-to-last season.
Now another future Hall of Fame coach, Tubby Smith, has them rising up the bracket projections.
Tech is doing it with a balanced approach—one that has seven players averaging at least 8.7 points per game, but none scoring more than the 11.1 per game that senior guard Devaugntah Williams averages. That includes Norense Odiase, who has been out since mid-January with a foot injury, but if he returns for the postseason, that would make for an extra boost.
2. Wisconsin
7 of 8
Record: 17-10; 9-5, Big Ten
Projected seed: No. 9
Left for dead even before Bo Ryan abruptly retired in mid-December, Wisconsin was sitting at 9-9 overall and 1-4 in the Big Ten a month later. Interim coach Greg Gard was already a long shot to land the permanent gig, and any chance the Badgers would make an 18th consecutive NCAA tournament appearance seemed minimal.
Now Wisconsin is sitting just outside the conference's top four, where Ryan always finished, as an 8-1 run not only has it in line for another bid but also primed to do more than just show up. The Badgers have the look of a team whose overall body of work justifies a low seed but whose play heading into March indicates it'll be horribly under-seeded.
That's much like Kentucky in 2014, as the Wildcats went into the national title game as a No. 8 seed while knocking off unbeaten Wichita State and defending champion Louisville in the process.
History aside, don't forget Wisconsin made the last two Final Fours (and was in the title game a year ago), and though its top players from those teams are no longer there, there's still plenty of returning NCAA tourney experience.
1. Wichita State
8 of 8
Record: 21-7; 14-2, Missouri Valley
Projected seed: No. 10
Wichita State had high hopes for this season–the final one with guards Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet at the helm. It's a big reason coach Gregg Marshall opted not to take a bigger job last spring, despite some sizable offers on the table. The Shockers can still achieve all remaining goals, but a 5-5 start put any hope of getting a high seed in jeopardy.
VanVleet missed four games early in the season, contributing to the rough start, but he's been incredible since getting back to full strength. As a result, Wichita has again become one of the most dangerous mid-majors in the country. And with a midlevel seed, it must play the role of underdog.
Wichita clinched its third straight Missouri Valley title over the weekend, but the only way it can guarantee itself a spot in the NCAA field is to claim the automatic bid. That means the sleeper process would actually begin in St. Louis on March 3 in the conference tourney rather than two weeks later in a to-be-determined city.
Not as if Baker and VanVleet don't know how that works. The Shockers were seeded ninth in 2012-13 when they made the Final Four, and last year as a No. 7 seed they reached the Sweet 16.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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