Duke Basketball: Teams the Blue Devils Don't Want to See in the NCAA Tournament

Duke just finished a rigorous four-game stretch against ranked ACC opponents in which they went 3-1, the loss coming Saturday at Louisville. It was a performance that ensured the Blue Devils will be making the NCAA tournament for the 21st straight year, but anything beyond that is uncertain.

A lot will depend on how many able bodies Duke has available, as guards Matt Jones and Derryck Thornton both suffered injuries last week. Jones was unable to play Saturday, which became an even bigger factor when Thornton had to leave the game for a spell with a shoulder injury.

But just as integral to Duke's NCAA tournament hopes is the draw it gets. Considering the way the Blue Devils like to play and the issues their depth presents, there are certain opponents they'll want to avoid early on in the tournament.

We've identified five potential foes Duke would love to avoid during those opening rounds, if not the entire tournament.

Arkansas-Little Rock

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Duke likes to push the tempo and get up and down the court as quickly as possible, something Arkansas-Little Rock does its best to prevent. The Trojans average 64.7 possessions per 40 minutes, which is tied for 11th-fewest in the country, and they're tops in scoring defense at 58.4 points allowed per game.

The Blue Devils average 68.5 possessions per game, with five of their seven losses coming when they had fewer than 68 possessions. They're also 1-5 when scoring under 70 points, though that lone victory was Feb. 13 against Virginia and its strong defense.

Arkansas-Little Rock is 24-3 and leading the Sun Belt Conference, but its most notable wins came in the preseason. It won at San Diego State and Tulsa, with its lone nonconference loss coming at Texas Tech. 

Gonzaga

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This hasn't been a particularly strong season for Gonzaga—in fact, the Bulldogs' 17-year NCAA tournament streak might depend on them winning the West Coast Conference—but there's no denying they feature two of the most effective frontcourt players in the country in senior Kyle Wiltjer and sophomore Domantas Sabonis. And if there's one thing Duke is lacking in, its depth down low.

The 6'10” Wiltjer averages 21 points per game and can score from all over the court as a stretch 4 who shoots 48.5 percent overall and 41.5 percent from three-point range this season. He's made 71 threes this year and 229 for his career, but over the last two years, he's become more aggressive closer to the basket.

Sabonis is also 6'10”, but he's more of a physical player than Wiltjer and draws plenty of fouls. He makes 79.4 percent of his free throws and shoots 61.4 percent from the field, and his penchant for controlling the boards has resulted in 17 double-doubles in 28 games. For the year, Sabonis averages 17.3 points and 11.6 rebounds.

Duke knocked off Gonzaga in last year's Elite Eight, but that was with a much deeper team. Gonzaga isn't as good as that squad, either, but still has those inside forces who will test the Blue Devils' thin frontcourt lineup.

South Carolina

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Even if Duke were to get senior forward Amile Jefferson back from injury, that would still leave it at no more than seven full-time players for the NCAA tournament. That doesn't leave a lot of room for error, and it certainly wouldn't give Duke much leeway when it comes to foul trouble.

Few teams use fouls to their advantage more than South Carolina, which has drawn a whistle a Division I-leading 651 times this season. The Gamecocks have converted that into 782 free-throw attempts, second-most in the country, and even though they're only shooting 67.8 percent as a team, they get almost 20 points per game from the line.

More importantly, they force opponents to either go deep into their bench or loosen up on defense, which is what Duke would have to do with so few players to work with. South Carolina is 14-0 when opponents commit at least 22 fouls, compared to 8-5 when they foul 21 times or less.

Duke had generally been able to manage foul trouble this season until Saturday, when the added strain of injuries led to two starters fouling out.

Valparaiso

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What Duke has managed to accomplish with such a limited rotation this season is a testament to the offensive system that Mike Krzyzewski has in place. Ranked second in adjusted offense, per KenPom.com, the Blue Devils average better than 1.2 points per possession.

They just got done playing the nation's second-best defensive efficiency team in Louisville, and it produced their third-worst performance (based on offensive rating) this season.

A similar result might come about if they face Valparaiso early in the NCAA tournament, since the mid-major power has made its name on shutting down opponents when they have the ball. The Crusaders, who are 24-5 and allow 60.3 points per game, rank fifth in defensive efficiency.

Valpo is able to do this by cycling in fresh players on a regular basis. Nine players average at least 15 minutes per game, and leading scorer Alec Peters is the only one who logs more than 30 minutes on average.

West Virginia

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Duke has done a surprisingly good job rebounding the ball this season despite Brandon Ingram playing out of position and Marshall Plumlee logging more minutes than ever before. But when it can't get an edge on the boards, the troubles mount up.

The Blue Devils are 6-7 when getting out-rebounded, which wouldn't bode well if they ran into one of the nation's best rebounding teams, such as West Virginia.

The Mountaineers grab 56 percent of missed shots and 41.5 percent of their own misses, the latter ranking first in the nation. While their “Press Virginia” style of defense has gone hot and cold this season, their ability to control the boards has been more consistent.

West Virginia is 20-7 overall but 19-2 when winning the rebounding battle.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.