5 Bold Predictions for 2016 Barcelona Formula 1 Test
The 2016 Formula One season finally kicks off on Monday, February 22, with the first of two pre-season tests at Spain's Circuit de Catalunya.
The four-day event will give fans their first proper glimpse of the cars that will contest the 21 races between March and November. Every team with the exception of Sauber will be present, including the new Haas team and returning Renault—formerly known as Lotus.
There have been no significant changes to the technical regulations over the winter, so we already have a good idea of what the 2016 cars will look like—almost identical to their 2015 brothers.
But every team will have made subtle changes to their designs, and the running order this year could be very different to what it was last time out. McLaren and Manor will be aiming to make big jumps, while Renault will hope the switch from Mercedes back to their own engine will not be too severe in terms of lap times.
World champions Mercedes will want to lay down a firm marker ahead of the new season, Ferrari will be out to show they can offer up a proper challenge, and Haas will be hoping to hit the ground running.
Who'll be happy when the test ends on Thursday, and who'll be disappointed?
It's impossible to say, but here are our five predictions for how we think the test will pan out.
McLaren Will Be Somewhere Near the Middle of the Timesheets
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McLaren made a terrible start to testing in 2015, with figures compiled by Crash.net showing they completed just 79 laps of the Jerez circuit. Jenson Button did the quickest lap in an MP4-30—a whopping seven seconds off the pace.
They improved as testing went on and continued to make slight progress throughout the season, but they never got anywhere near the front. Over a single lap, they were perhaps the eighth-fastest team at the end of 2015.
The Honda power unit was and remains McLaren's biggest problem—if that is fixed, they'll shoot up the order. If it isn't, they'll stay at the back.
Exactly how much Honda has improved over the winter is unclear; Spanish newspaper AS claimed the manufacturer had found 223 usable horsepower—most of which would come from ensuring the electrical energy could be used for the entire length of straights, rather than running out before the end as it had in 2015.
However, Honda told Sky Sports the AS claims were "unsubstantiated and merely speculative"—and it's unlikely it will have spent all 32 development tokens at this early stage.
But it can't have failed to improve, and McLaren should have built another decent chassis. They won't be topping the times, but we can see them settling into a comfortable spot as the fourth- or fifth-quickest team around the Circuit de Catalunya.
Mercedes Won't Be on Top to Start With, and the Speculating Will Begin
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The start of testing in 2015 brought with it something of a surprise—Ferrari were, by a substantial margin, the quickest team at the opening test. As reported at the time by BBC Sport, Kimi Raikkonen lapped Jerez in a time of one minute, 20.841 seconds, more than a second quicker than Nico Rosberg's best for Mercedes.
More surprising was that Felipe Nasr, driving a Ferrari-powered Sauber, was also quicker than Rosberg. The times did what testing times so often do and sparked a frenzy of speculation and revised predictions.
Had the Scuderia performed some sort of magic over the winter and transformed their power unit into the class of the field? Would they be the team to beat in 2015? Had Mercedes lost it?
No, no and no. Of course not, and deep down even the fans doing the speculating knew it. Mercedes had just followed a different schedule to Ferrari and Sauber; once everyone was doing the same thing, they were back ahead.
But it was fun while it lasted, and it'll happen again at the first 2016 test. Someone will be ahead of Mercedes, and the speculating will begin—then the Silver Arrows will, at some point, plonk in a lap half a second clear of everyone else and normal service will be resumed.
It'll Take Less Than 4 Days to Beat Last Season's Overall Best Time
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The regulations are remaining stable from 2015 to 2016, so there are no obvious opportunities for the designers to find huge chunks of time with fresh innovations.
But progress in F1 never stops, even if returns do start to diminish the closer a design gets to perfection. The 2016 cars won't look too different to their predecessors, but they'll invariably be a little bit quicker.
Statistics compiled by Autosport's Mitchell Adam record that the best lap time at Catalunya during pre-season testing in 2015 was Nico Rosberg's 1:22.792, set using the soft compound tyres at the final Barcelona test. Per BBC Sport, the quickest time at the second test (the first at Barcelona) was somewhat slower—a 1:24.067, set by Romain Grosjean on supersoft tyres.
It's normal for teams to start off with the most important things, such as reliability, cooling and ensuring the car is happy on longer runs. But with the number of pre-season tests cut from three to two, all the programmes will be compressed slightly.
So we think this, coupled with the improvement in the cars and the presence of the new ultrasoft tyres, will see someone setting a time at the first test that is quicker than last year's overall best.
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Haas Will Be Reasonably Competitive
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Haas will show off their first-ever car in the pit lane on Monday morning before making their on-track F1 debut.
The initial priority for the American squad will be ensuring they have the basics in place—a well-drilled pit crew, a functioning and harmonious garage and, most importantly of all, a car that starts, drives around the track and returns to the pit box under its own steam.
But they'll probably get through this work quicker than a new team normally would. Haas will have learnt a lot from their close relationship with Ferrari, and team manager Dave O'Neill has been here before—per Autosport, he did a lot of work getting the Virgin Racing team together in 2009.
It's impossible to say how good or bad the as-yet unnamed chassis will be, but the Ferrari engine in the back is definitely powerful and their two drivers, Romain Grosjean and Esteban Gutierrez, both know their way around the Barcelona track.
So while Haas aren't going to be topping the timesheets, we think they can be moderately competitive straight out of the box—no more than three seconds down on the test's quickest time.
That might sound like a lot, but for a new team on a low budget, it would be considered a good start.
Force India Will Match or Beat Williams
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Before the start of last season, Force India didn't run their new car until the second day of the third and final test. Even then, what they wheeled out was nowhere near a finished product—it was a basic, underdeveloped chassis.
Sky Sports F1 reported the team had faced financial and logistical difficulties over the winter, and these had delayed their early-season development.
Unsurprisingly, the car wasn't especially good.
However, the team added substantial upgrades as the season went on, and in the second half of the year, they were regularly in and around the top eight. Such was Force India's progress, there was little to choose between them and Williams by the end of the season.
We think the closeness between the two Mercedes customers will continue into testing and throughout the season ahead. In recent years, Williams have tended to look better in testing than they really are—they were very close to Mercedes in 2014's pre-season and ahead of Ferrari in 2015.
But we think Force India can match them in the first test—and maybe even emerge as the leading Mercedes customer.
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