Contender or Pretender: Final Four Chances for Each Top 25 NCAA Basketball Team
Not every AP Top 25 team is capable of reaching the 2016 NCAA tournament's Final Four.
But there are also very few (if any) that seem to have a ticket punched regardless of circumstances (matchups, etc.). A lot can change in a hurry. Remember, in January the Oklahoma Sooners were trying to beat Kansas and become the sole owner of the title of No. 1 in the country.
Now the Jayhawks have won both meetings and have the upper hand in the Big 12 race. That doesn't mean we've ruled out Oklahoma, though.
Here's a total rundown of recipes to consider for the current Associated Press Top 25 teams (we've skipped Louisville and SMU due to their postseasons bans).
In total, 16 of the AP Top 25 teams were given the contender label.
The other seven fanbases—including one of a current top 10 team—should feel free to bookmark this page for the purpose of getting the last word in late next month, when your team defies our early expectations by making a run to the national semifinals.
25. Baylor Bears
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Recipe for Success
The Baylor Bears know how to get extra shots. They're monsters on the offensive glass, securing more than 40 percent of their misses (that's fourth nationally). And they also know how to get to the foul line while shooting a respectable 74 percent.
Those are ways to keep yourself in the game. And there are very few natural forces like senior forward Rico Gathers, whom the Bears have struggled to be without in two of the last three games (illness). The overtime home win Tuesday against Iowa State wasn't exactly a thing of beauty. But it was gutty. And that's what March is all about.
Recipe for Disaster
That zone defense Baylor adores isn't so lovable these days. The Bears rank last in the Big 12 in both field- goal percentage defense and three-point percentage defense.
Baylor coach Scott Drew is still more prone to give other teams credit for good shooting—at least after Texas Tech made nine of 16 three-pointers in last weekend's blowout road win in Waco.
Verdict: Contender
We're going to take a swing for the fences and say Baylor will thrive when it gets out of the Big 12 race. It wouldn't be the first time. Drew took the 2013-14 team to the Sweet 16, and that group matched up fairly similarly after it had finished sixth in the Big 12 race.
The Bears have a brutal end to the regular season, but getting Gathers back in due time will help. And Baylor has enough upper-tier ability to get refreshed and make a postseason run. Something to watch: The Bears are 19-0 when leading at any point after halftime this year.
24. Texas Longhorns
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Recipe for Success
Texas coach Shaka Smart has expressed a desire to see more attitude from his Texas Longhorns.
UT seems to really be building momentum—and continued belief in first-year coach Smart—after thumping West Virginia at home on Tuesday.
The Longhorns have won eight of their last 11 games after that Jan. 9 defeat to TCU, which looks increasingly odd. Smart's team is 2-2 against Top 10 Associated Press teams, even winning at mirror image West Virginia.
Recipe for Disaster
Composure isn't all that it could—or needs to—be. The Horns were so excited to play West Virginia on Tuesday, they committed three turnovers in the first three minutes and fell behind by eight points.
Sporting a double-digit lead, it was whittled to a two-possession game because of a variety of turnovers and forced shots.
This team often seems to be at the mercy of senior guard Javan Felix's shot selection. He took a hasty runner against the Mountaineers in the closing two minutes, when all that was needed was to run some more game clock.
It's a streaky team, generally speaking, especially from the three-point line. UT needs Eric Davis Jr. and Connor Lammert to play well, and they were in funks before facing West Virginia.
Verdict: Pretender
Long term, it's impossible to dislike what Smart has done (and can do) for the generally underachieving program in Austin. We're accustomed to seeing a late-February fade, and it doesn't look like that's going to happen.
But right now it's still a thin team inside—despite Prince Ibeh's admirable senior-year development—that doesn't rebound its misses particularly well. Throw in a lousy free-throw shooting percentage (66 percent), and it's not a team built for crunch time on neutral courts—not yet, anyway.
23. Providence Friars
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Recipe for Success
If that which doesn't kill you really does make you stronger, consider the Providence Friars very muscular. They've gone through some hard times, losing four of their last five games.
They still have arguably the country's top point guard (especially if you consider NBA draft potential) in Kris Dunn. Things could certainly be worse, though Providence—13-1 with its only loss on a neutral court to Michigan State at the start of 2016—is going to sneak into the backdoor of the NCAA tournament bid process.
Recipe for Disaster
Providence plays at an arena (Dunkin' Donuts Center) affectionately known as "The Dunk." And speaking of dunks, that's what this team needs, because nothing else on offense is particularly high-percentage. Dunn is a fantastic two-way point guard who averages nearly seven assists and three steals.
But a team that lost 40 percent of its offense last year to graduation or transfer ranks in the 200s for both two-point and three-point shooting percentages. It's wear-and-tear on a team that doesn't seem to have any answers.
It's nearly impossible to criticize Dunn. But if there's an area of concern, he hasn't become the three-point shooter Providence needs. He's at 36.7 percent. It would've been easy to figure he returned to school to improve that part of his game. But he's just one percentage point better than last year and only averages about three attempts a game. There's nothing to draw defenders close and make life easier getting to the rim or setting up teammates.
Verdict: Pretender
It's the type of team that just can't put it together consistently enough. Take last Saturday's home game against Georgetown, for example: a 20-point lead at halftime but only a one-point cushion with 10 seconds left. This team will be fried by the time it ekes out an at-large bid.
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22. Indiana Hoosiers
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Recipe for Success
These Indiana Hoosiers sure can shoot it, standing second nationally in effective field-goal percentage and able to avoid any shooting slumps. Tom Crean has taken a team that was lampooned after a miserable December loss at Duke and at least put IU in contention for an NCAA bid. The defense of late has been better.
Recipe for Disaster
Indiana cannot afford Troy Williams to go missing. Over the last three games, he's averaging about seven points (five shy of his average), and there have been two losses in that stretch. Against Michigan State, Williams finished with five shots, no points and four rebounds. If the 6'7" junior can find his aggressiveness and stature, that's how far this team will go in March.
Verdict: Pretender
We mentioned the crazy-good shooting percentage above. But let's put that in perspective. Saint Mary's, Belmont, North Florida and Eastern Washington are the teams directly around IU on that list of effective field-goal percentage. IU simply hasn't given any signs that it's capable of putting together four strong games in a row against quality competition, spread through two weekends, to make a Final Four.
The Hoosiers' Big Ten number has now crept above one point per possession allowed because of bad efficiency against Iowa (1.22 PPP allowed) and Michigan State (1.28 PPP allowed).
A 20 percent turnover rate is also a major cause for concern for a team that is limited at the defensive end to begin with.
20. Duke Blue Devils
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Recipe for Success
Clearly Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski is whispering "just listen to me" in that picture above. It's hard to totally count out a team that has him, experienced sophomore Grayson Allen (the hero of last year's Duke national championship) and freshman mismatch Brandon Ingram.
Ingram, at 6'9", is a very versatile threat, especially over the last few months as he's developed out of necessity amid the Blue Devils' limited depth. Ingram single-handedly led Duke to recover from an 11-point deficit last weekend against Virginia. In one stretch he scored 18 consecutive points. He also propelled Duke to a 24-10 advantage on the glass in the second half. Mind you, the Cavaliers are a top-25 defensive rebounding team.
You really want to bet against that? Especially after that win at North Carolina late Wednesday night?
Recipe for Disaster
Duke could get an added boost soon with the return of senior forward Amile Jefferson. He has been absent since mid-December because of a foot injury. A seven-man rotation sure sounds good. But the possibility surely looms that Jefferson can't hit a stride, and the rest of the Blue Devils are ground down like hamburger in the season's late stages. Now there's the concern about Matt Jones getting hurt against UNC. So there's more health drama in Durham.
Verdict: Contender
In many years, we wouldn't give Duke's current blueprint the time of day. But it's a team that shoots well enough and is more than adept at limiting turnovers.
19. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
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Recipe for Success
Notre Dame has figured itself out. The Irish don't take a ton of free throws, but in big wins they've been known to get to the line often. That includes 63 total attempts in recent wins against North Carolina and Clemson, plus two more than typically aggressive Louisville (16-14) in a Feb. 13 win.
The intensity to win three of four in a tough stretch—after starting with an uninspired loss at Miami—had coach Mike Brey celebrating.
"I would have been thrilled with 2-2," Brey said after the Louisville outcome, per the South Bend Tribune's Al Lesar. "So…uh…we're going to have a parade."
Recipe for Disaster
It's Demetrius Jackson's team, which is a very good thing. The question becomes whether he thrives against other teams with standout guard play. It hasn't always happened. He had just six points on 3-of-11 shooting Feb. 3 at Miami—a loss that threatened to tailspin the season.
He's a streaky shooter, though, especially from the arc. He went from a 3-of-21 sequence spread over four games to hitting half of his dozen attempts in a nice home win against Louisville.
Verdict: Contender
In the year of anything can (and seems to) happen, this may be the year to finally get Notre Dame to Brey's first Final Four (and first for the school since its only appearance in 1978). It's an efficient shooting team that plays relatively mistake-free offense.
Throw in Jackson as an extra gear, and the biggest limitation would be if it runs into a hot-shooting three-point team. Notre Dame is allowing opponents to shoot nearly 40 percent. The last three shot nearly 50 percent combined, but they were all still Irish wins.
17. Purdue Boilermakers
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Recipe for Success
The Purdue Boilermakers know exactly what makes them boil. Until the five-point loss to Michigan on Feb. 13, they had secured the rebounding edge in every game.
Purdue will have a ton of size for opponents to contend with, starting with A.J. Hammons and Isaac Haas, along with freshman Caleb Swanigan.
"Having Swanigan and Hammons in together is a load," Michigan coach John Beilein said leading up to what turned into an impressive Wolverines win. "This is the premier, low-post, post-feed team maybe in the country."
Recipe for Disaster
Talk about the big fellas all you want. The question marks come in guard play and Raphael Davis' productivity. The 6'5" senior has virtually disappeared in Purdue losses. That includes four points on five shots against Michigan, eight points in eight shots against Maryland, six in seven shots against Iowa, zero on three shots against Illinois...you get the picture.
Davis had 24 points (22 shots) in an overtime win against Michigan State that lent some credibility to Purdue. But there has to be greater complements to what it does well inside.
Verdict: Pretender
Get some offense from its guards and the Boilermakers can surely hang with anybody. Their size and rebounding ability, plus defense inside the arc, is virtually without peer. But we all know March is a guard's world. Even for sophomore point guard Vince Edwards and big shooting guard Johnny Hill (6'8") but coming up huge will likely be a different matter come tournament time.
16. Oregon Ducks
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Recipe for Success
Think Oregon, football or basketball, and it's easy to think offense. But these Ducks may be more built on the defensive end, especially at high swattage. UO is terrific at blocking shots—especially Chris Boucher, who has blossomed in Pac-12 play.
The ability to turn defense into quick offense is a solid part of how the Ducks shoot 52 percent from two-point range, despite not really having a go-to post scorer.
Recipe for Disaster
Facing a hot team at the arc could be killer for the Ducks, who allow 36 percent three-point shooting against them. Oregon should be in good shape to rack up wins—their five remaining opponents have a combined record of 26-37, which is "the lowest winning percentage of any team has left on the schedule," according to the Eugene Register-Guard's Steve Mims.
Verdict: Contender
If you like geographical symmetry–every actual region should have a contender for the Final Four—then Oregon may be your best shot out west. The Ducks, when playing aggressive and confident, could take it to Arizona (even in Tucson), and Dillon Brooks is having a breakout year. Dana Altman has a no-frills team that understands its flaws and strengths. This is a poor three-point shooting team that also doesn't try a lot.
15. Dayton Flyers
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Recipe for Success
If you believe in upstart programs having a shot at making noise, then consider this. Iowa and Monmouth have been two of the bigger stories this season. And Dayton beat them on back-to-back nights at Thanksgiving.
Archie Miller went to an Elite Eight two years ago. In a season with so much up for grabs, he's just the kind of coach who could pull off a long tournament run this year. It's a group that is finally over the Dyshawn Pierre saga, which is over, and he's back on the court. With Pierre's return, transfer Charles Cooke is actually scoring more.
Recipe for Disaster
The Flyers don't take particularly great care of the ball now. Turning it over nearly 20 percent of the time ranks around the bottom third of college teams. Just imagine when the pressure picks up outside the A-10.
Verdict: Pretender
The Dayton Flyers currently lead the A-10 in almost all defensive categories. Impressive stuff in a solid league. But the turnover woes lead us to wonder if it could play four solid opponents while starting at somewhere around a No. 5 seed.
14. Kentucky Wildcats
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Recipe for Success
This hasn't quite been the Kentucky season even Wildcats fans envisioned. Or maybe it has. Youth has been on full display. It has not always shown well. But coach John Calipari has history on his side. He could easily get to March and remind this team that the 2013-14 squad that made it to the national title game was of a pretty similar storyline.
Kentucky still has Tyler Ulis and Jamal Murray. There are plenty of teams that would kill to have that duo with them in March.
Recipe for Disaster
What's going through these UK minds when the lights really get brighter? Do players start thinking about the NBA draft? Do they have the toughness and resolve? We're looking a little bit at Skal Labissiere, whom we're not ready to call a lost cause quite yet.
What we do know is these Wildcats aren't great on the defensive glass. Tempo can be pushed on them, too. UK unfortunately may have to answer for last year's UK team that steamrolled and platooned so many folks. There's a zero invincibility factor with this group. Foul trouble continues to be a concern—Labissiere and Alex Poythress combine for an absurd 13.3 over 40 minutes, and Marcus Lee adds another six.
We could go on...UK shoots about 67 percent at the foul line.
Verdict: Contender
By the slimmest of margins...UK has two elite players, and we'll give the group this: It's not smug, recycling nearly 39 percent of its shots. That offensive rebounding percentage is top 10 nationally.
13. Iowa State Cyclones
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Recipe for Success
The Iowa State Cyclones have experience, a nationally ranked top-tier senior, as well as the pace and variety of mismatches, that will make them one of the more intriguing teams come tournament time.
This team's efficiency on offense, and its 56 percent effective shooting, makes it a team that no one exactly wants to play. If Georges Niang and his teammates are on, they can go a long way.
Recipe for Disaster:
It's certainly easy—and pretty reasonable—to write off any of ISU's struggles to trying to contend in a very difficult league with a first-year coach. But the blueprint for troubles are out there, too. Six of the seven losses have come within two possession. That means closing out has been difficult.
ISU isn't deep, either, and only 22 percent of its minutes go to bench players. That's near the middle 300's nationally. When Nazareth Mitrou-Long couldn't play anymore, it really made ISU vulnerable to its own style of playing and shooting fast. They can't keep up with themselves.
Verdict: Pretender
Look for Iowa State to fall victim to being a one-and-done type of team. Not in the tournament—it'll win at least one game this year after a stunningly quick exit last March. But the quick-shooting style and lack of enough rebounds will catch up with Niang, Prohm and Co. well before the Final Four.
12. Arizona Wildcats
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Recipe for Success
It would be a great story if the Arizona Wildcats could finally get through that Elite Eight roadblock by taking a relatively inexperienced team, squeeze through the Pac-12 and play its best ball in the tournament's second weekend.
What you have to like is UA averages the second-most points in conference play (behind Washington) while shooting nearly 50 percent—which is tops in the conference. The Wildcats have arguably exceeded expectations to be valued so highly this time of year, after losing so much following the 2014-15 season. But having Allonzo Trier alleviates all of that departure. The freshman has averaged 16 points in his first two games after returning from a broken hand.
Recipe for Disaster
Coach Sean Miller has seemed especially edgy with this group. He got in faces and lambasted his team after the Jan. 28 home loss to Oregon. The flip side is that UA has won its five games since then.
Verdict: Contender
Hey, it'd make a heck of a story if UA can pull off a run to the final weekend. And it's not like these Wildcats face such shoulder-busting expectations. The real saving grace for UA may be that it can get the ball inside and work back toward the perimeter to Trier and Gabe York. Senior center Kaleb Tarczewski and 6'9" senior forward Ryan Anderson average a "Pac-12-high 37.2 points in the paint," as Doug Haller of the Arizona Republic points out.
11. Miami Hurricanes
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Recipe for Success
An experienced, talented point guard, a coach who knows how to get to a Final Four under a lot more surprising conditions and an axe to grind after not making the tournament last year. Yes, the Miami Hurricanes appear to have it all.
UM will tick as long as Angel Rodriguez, the floor leader, is healthy and confident—which he wasn't in the latter stages of last season.
Recipe for Disaster
This team has to realize what it has: an incredibly lethal scorer who doesn't hunt shots. Rodriguez and sophomore guard Ja'Quan Newton are the go-to guys. But it's senior guard Sheldon McClellan who averages about 16 points on nearly 60 percent effective shooting.
Teammates would be wise to make sure they get every good drop out of his efficiency. Otherwise, it's a huge mistake.
Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/college/acc/university-of-miami/article60728771.html#storylink=cpy
Verdict: Contender
There are certainly holes in their game. It's not a good three-point shooting team. The rebounding leaves something to be desired. But go back to that stretch in Puerto Rico early in the season when it was Mississippi State, Utah and Butler—there's a high ceiling to work with.
10. West Virginia Mountaineers
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Recipe for Success:
Keep getting after teams is the only way. "Press Virginia" entered the Texas game leading the country in steals and turnovers forced and then secured just three steals and eight turnovers.
Recipe for Disaster
There's just something about the Mountaineers that feels constantly vulnerable, especially as the season wears on. It doesn't help right now to have starting guard Daxter Miles out (hamstring), and Jaysean Paige hurt his ankle against Texas.
"When Jaysean went down, that's two guards we're down,” forward Nathan Adrian told the Charleston Gazette's Mike Casazza. “The way we play, you pretty much can't play with three guards at that point. You can't ask three people to run up and down the floor without getting tired and giving up buckets. When we started giving up buckets, we had to drop back into a zone.”
Coach Bob Huggins gives 41 percent of his minutes to bench players (top 15 nationally).
Verdict: Contender
Basically, West Virginia needs everything to fall into place. That's starting to fade in the Big 12 race (it fell out of a first-place tie with the Texas loss) and won't get any easier in the NCAA tournament. A team that turns the ball over 20 percent of the time and shoots 66 percent from the line leaves us wondering if we've made the right call. But it's a funky season, and the Mountaineers could be the right team to take advantage of the climate.
T8. Michigan State Spartans
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Recipe for Success
Michigan State has been through a lot this year. That's meant a lot of guys have gotten to play. And while Tom Izzo doesn't normally like having such a deep bench—it's sure come in handy at times this year, counting the Valentine's Day massacre of Indiana.
Consider in that game: The Spartans combined for 10 blocks—the third time that's happened this year. Freshman forward Deyonta Davis has set the school record for most swats in a season. Matt Costello's developed, Marvin Clark Jr. is coming along and so is Alvin Ellis III.
This team, through pretty big puzzle pieces, has the parts to do some damage again come March.
Recipe for Disaster
What's a blessing can also be a curse. About 43 percent of MSU's minutes have been used on reserves, which rates 10th nationally. Only one other year since 2010 have Izzo's benches ranked in the top 100. So something may have to give. And at what cost, down the road, as far as continuity is concerned?
Verdict: Contender
For the Spartans, everyday could be Denzel Valentine's Day. His versatility makes it a must-follow next month. It's as simple as that, even if the bench situation isn't quite so easy to figure out.
T8. Xavier Musketeers
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Recipe for Success
It starts with the mack daddy. Coach Chris Mack is the leader of a program that has been to the Sweet 16 five times in the last eight years—including three appearances under him. As Bleacher Report's C.J. Moore pointed out last month, only Louisville and Michigan State have enjoyed more success in that span.
They play strong team defense—ranking 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.com—and don't struggle for points, either.
Recipe for Disaster
Jalen Reynolds getting in foul trouble—which is common—could be a big issue in the postseason. Even if the Musketeers are used to it. The fiery 6'10" junior averages 6.1 fouls per 40 minutes.
At least Mack has a lot of lineup versatility with this group.
Verdict: Contender
One thing we really like about this team: It has a patented, unorthodox defense (1-3-1) that can really cause opponents to play tentatively. It can be hard for teams to prepare for such a style, especially in the second round and the Elite Eight on those short turnarounds.
7. Virginia Cavaliers
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Recipe for Success
The Virginia Cavaliers haven't been to an Elite Eight since 1995 and a Final Four since 1984. The drought could end, however, with a defensive-minded, selfless team that really could find a breakthrough in a tournament that will have chaos galore.
You can't go wrong having Malcolm Brogdon. KenPom.com's third-highest MVP candidate just shut down North Carolina State's Cat Barber (the leading scorer in the ACC) while scoring a team-high 22 points. The 6'5" senior can guard a variety of guys, from the point guard Barber to lengthy Duke freshman Brandon Ingram.
That ace in the hole should be a big advantage come March.
Recipe for Disaster
London Perrantes has to shoot the ball. The ACC's best three-point marksman didn't attempt one against Duke in a game that came down to a last-second basket (he played 39 minutes). Against NC State he made five of eight. It would also help to have Mike Tobey stay out of foul trouble and use his minimalist efficiency to the Cavaliers' advantage. He has scored 25 points on 11-of-16 shooting in the past three games.
Verdict: Contender
Look, a lot of stuff can—and will—happen in this NCAA tournament. But Tony Bennett has experience and a strong defensive presence—with Brogdon and collectively—that could very reasonably take away some of this year's potential surprises.
6. Maryland Terrapins
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Recipe for Success
Maryland has the makings of getting to the Final Four because of both ends of the floor. It's the Big Ten's best shooting team inside the arc (53.5 percent) while also being tops at stopping opponents either inside or outside the three-point line.
Mark Turgeon's teams have usually been known for defense. But this group may be taking it to another level.
Throw in one of the country's best inside-outside combos—Melo Trimble and big man Diamond Stone—and this could be the year to do more than just get to the Final Four.
Recipe for Disaster
Speaking of Stone, Maryland has to hope his looming one-game suspension for losing his cool in the Wisconsin loss serves as a educational moment. Maryland needs him. He's shooting about 57 percent and has really improved with defense, averaging 1.7 blocked shots.
Verdict: Pretender
We're just not sold yet. The bad home loss to Wisconsin showed another sign of softness from a group that has defeats to Michigan State, North Carolina and Michigan around a variety of ho-hum wins (outside of Jan. 28 vs. Iowa). Maryland will have to have Jake Layman's and Trimble's A-games. We're not sure this team has quite enough, despite the consistently high ranking.
5. North Carolina Tar Heels
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Recipe for Success
We know Roy Williams can win national titles. He also seems to finally be clicking with Brice Johnson, a mercurial talent who was a third-team ACC pick last season, who is now averaging 16.4 points and 10 rebounds. And don't forget his league-leading 61 percent shooting.
Johnson has 14 double-doubles this year, which is four more than he had combined during his first three seasons in Chapel Hill.
Recipe for Disaster
Roy Williams must look at the three-point line in total horror some days. The Tar Heels don't shoot particularly well from there (31.6 percent) and defend it about as bad (36.8 percent). Both numbers rank close to the 300 mark. Throw in those issues with Williams not exactly knowing what kind of effort he'll get at the defensive end of the floor—Johnson has been better but still can improve—and UNC could really go either way this March.
Now we also will see how Roy's boys recover from a rough home loss to Duke on Wednesday.
Verdict: Contender
Some teams, especially in this kind of year, have to be given the benefit of the doubt. Carolina was a No. 1 team at the start of the season. It's hardly perfect, but it has this in its favor: According to UNC, Carolina’s assist-to-turnover ratio (1.69) ranks third in the nation and is the best of any Tar Heel team since turnovers were first recorded in 1981-82.
4. Iowa Hawkeyes
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Recipe for Success
These are high times in Iowa. Football's rolling. It's election season, which always draws some interest to the state. And then it's not letting up during basketball. Fran McCaffery is having his most successful season in Iowa City, and it's built on terrific shooting, a horde of mismatches and taking care of the ball.
A team that can sweep a season series against Michigan State is a pretty solid one.
Jarrod Uthoff has catapulted himself into first-team All-America consideration. He's 6'9", and along with the 6'6" Peter Jok, they've made better than 40 percent of their three-point attempts—creating one of the country's greatest pick-your-poison combos.
Recipe for Disaster
McCaffery has to be careful not to wear out his main guys. Over the past three games, they've taken the brunt of the minutes (33 on average), according to Chad Leistikow of the Des Moines Register, over the last three games.
Meanwhile, the bench has produced just 14 points in 105 minutes (4-of-20 shooting).
Verdict: Contender
Iowa hasn't been in front of the Big Ten race this late in the season since 2006. That presents some unique small-picture goals to go along with the big one of getting to a Final Four. But this group has the goods. All of Iowa’s losses are to currently ranked teams by single digits: Maryland, Dayton, Iowa State, Notre Dame and No. 21 Indiana.
3. Oklahoma Sooners
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Recipe for Success
The Buddy system has been pretty darn good to the Sooners so far. Oklahoma is No. 1 in three-point accuracy (44 percent) and has also tried the most treys since Big 12 play began. This is a group that shoots 55 percent (14th nationally) in effective field-goal percentage.
The goal is to keep getting chances to run, which Khadeem Lattin, one of the best blocked-shot artists in the conference, rejecting about 10 percent of shots, aided.
Recipe for Disaster
It showed against Kansas—go cold or quiet, as Hield did last weekend, and the Sooners are even vulnerable at home. Only about 17 percent of their points come at the foul line, so if you believe legs can get tired—this team doesn't get a lot of easy points. (A shame, too, because it shoots a very respectable 73 percent as a team.)
Verdict: Contender
No way we're counting out the Sooners yet, even if the Big 12 title hopes appear to be fading after the somewhat surprising home loss to Kansas—then a defeat at surging Texas Tech.
Hield is a relentless scoring monster. Isaiah Cousins and Jordan Woodard have both improved dramatically. Lon Kruger knows how to get deep into the tournament. It's a good mix. Now, we just have to wonder how their legs will hold up.
2. Kansas Jayhawks
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Recipe for Success
At Kansas, where nothing seems to change (except for the players, of course), it's amazing how drastically things can tilt in a month—then after one game. The Jayhawks, seeking their 12th consecutive Big 12 title, went from a 10 percent likelihood in late January to 75 after the last couple of wins. That's according to KenPom.com, (h/t Jesse Newell of the Kansas City Star).
But Kansas won at Oklahoma, getting a career game from Devonte' Graham. And his team suddenly looks like it can shoot three-pointers—22-of-47 over the past two games—with a penchant to shoot them more than early in the season. The 42 percent accuracy rate (if it holds) is the best of the Bill Self era.
Recipe for Disaster
Wayne Selden could try and do too much. Perry Ellis could go missing. Kansas is by no means a perfect team. But it's starting to pick it up defensively (at least it showed major potential at OU), and that includes the revelation of Landen Lucas inside.
The seldom-used big man figured to be in the shadows with Hunter Mickelson playing well in the summer and Cheick Diallo coming in as a highly touted freshman. But Lucas has put up 30 points and 36 rebounds the last three games. Of course, that begs the question: Can it last? KU needs it to.
Verdict: Contender
It would've been easy before Valentine's Day to write off this team, not just at OU but in the big pictures. But Self seems to have found a groove. It is still not a good team at forcing turnovers, but it does succeed at making teams miss shots inside the arc—the hallmark of Self's best teams.
1. Villanova Wildcats
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Recipe for Success
The Villanova Wildcats play with extreme confidence, and they pass all the metric tests. And Josh Hart—a monster on two-point shots (56 percent; fourth nationally), is playing at a supreme level to lead that charge.
Recipe for Disaster
There are stretches still when Villanova loves to shoot the three-pointer. Making them is an entirely different topic, though. Even in a pretty ho-hum game against St. John's, the Wildcats missed 15 of their 19 tries. If it comes down to having to make them...it could be the same old Villanova.
Verdict: Contender
Other years, around more relative depth of teams, we'd be inclined to strike these guys out. But this is the year where anything can happen. A first Final Four bid since 2009 wouldn't be a shock at all.
Stats are courtesy of KenPom.com, unless noted otherwise.
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