Dominic Thiem Tops Rafael Nadal in Top Story of Weekly Winners and Losers
Even clay has been tough on Rafael Nadal's quest to return to prominence. He lost in Argentina, but this time it did not look like an upset. Other players like Dominic Thiem are strong, hungry and competing for titles from South America to Memphis to Rotterdam.
Should the Spaniard get another coach to replace his uncle, Toni Nadal? This is one of many discussion points in this week's column.
It was an unpredictable week in men's and women's tennis as a few young players like Belinda Bencic and Taylor Fritz made their presences felt, only to get stiff-armed by experienced veterans in their finals. We give early feedback on Fritz' strengths and weaknesses.
All of this and more in a topsy-turvy edition of "Winners and Losers," where we examine the week's top players and stories.
Winner: Kei Nishikori
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Not to take away anything from Kei Nishikori’s four straight Memphis titles, but it’s turned into a cozy deal for the Japanese star to put away second-rate draws at the U.S. National Indoor Tennis Championships.
- 2013: Toughest opponent he would face for the next four years was a 6-4, 6-2 quarterfinal win over Marin Cilic. In the final, he cruised by a subpar version of Feliciano Lopez.
- 2014: Took down Ivo Karlovic in the final after hammering an easy draw.
- 2015: Only test was to defeat Kevin Anderson in the final, a top-20 caliber pro with a big serve.
- 2016: Best player he had to defeat was veteran Sam Querrey before coasting through 18-year-old wild card Taylor Fritz.
What did stand out was seeing Nishikori’s defense and speed a mile ahead of the bigger servers and power players that mostly filled the Memphis draw. He can dominate because the other players are fatally flawed and his skills are an unusual outlier at this venue.
Loser: Rotterdam Open
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What happened to the Rotterdam Open? It’s usually been a strong level-500 tournament that fills up with many stars. This year, a couple of key injuries to No. 1 seed Roger Federer and No. 10-ranked Richard Gasquet completely stripped the competition of its leading men.
But the competition was going to be thin regardless. Consider the following difference:
2015: Top seeds were Andy Murray, Milos Raonic, Tomas Berdych, Stan Wawrinka, Grigor Dimitrov, Ernests Gulbis, Roberto Bautista Agut and Gilles Simon.
2016: Top seeds were Marin Cilic, Simon, David Goffin, Gael Monfils, Bautista Agut, Benoit Paire and Viktor Troicki.
After the dust settled, Martin Klizan defeated Monfils. It's not exactly reminiscent of 2012 when Federer squared off against Juan Martin del Potro in the final.
Hopefully the Dutch bagels or apple tarts were enough to satisfy the appetites of tennis fans who no doubt missed the Swiss Maestro and other top-10 talent.
Winner: Taylor Fritz
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Earlier this week, we profiled America’s new batch of teenagers who will try to make waves on the ATP tour.
At Memphis, Taylor Fritz impressively took his wild card all the way to the final before falling to four-time champion Kei Nishikori.
Here’s the early scouting report on Fritz, based on the play he showed against Nishikori:
- He’s a power player with very fluid motions and mechanics on his serve. It’s already a B+ serve, and given more time to locate better, it should be a strong weapon for him.
- The second-serve slice needs more work, but it’s respectable for a pro. He has a better kick serve, but he did not use it as often. When he did, Nishikori was not able to get a bead on it so easily.
- Both forehand and backhand wings have tantalizing power, and when he unloads on a short ball, he can overpower the majority of defenders.
- Drawbacks start with his footwork. He has good foot speed, but he will need to develop better anticipatory instincts. Nishikori is a world-class defender, and he was able to absorb several of Fritz’s shots until finding his own openings.
- Fritz pressed too much against Nishikori with several long, powerful shots that sailed the baseline. He didn’t want to give up his advantage, and if it started slipping, he would try to unload—mostly to lose the point. He needs better patience, but of course he’s just beginning.
Overall, Fritz's reach and footwork are more like Juan Martin Del Potro, Marin Cilic or Tomas Berdych. Good enough to dictate his offense, but not in the class of Nishikori and the elite big-four players.
The big point is that Fritz had a terrific week, moving his ranking from No. 145 to 103. Props to his first real super ATP tournament. He's got a competitive spirit, and he brought excitement to Memphis.
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Loser: David Ferrer
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With No. 1 seed Rafael Nadal losing his semifinal, the second Spaniard, David Ferrer, finally lost to another longtime Spanish pro, Nicolas Almagro. It was high time that the talented but erratic 30-year-old snapped his 0-15 record against his compatriot.
It should be noted that Ferrer had to finish his quarterfinal three-set victory over Pablo Cuevas earlier in the day, and the fatigue was evident against the hard-hitting Almagro. Tag-teaming against Ferrer is about the only way to wear down “Mighty Mouse.”
Ferrer will not lament his loss for too long. He and Nadal are again the No. 2 and No. 1 seeds, but both are aging veterans who are looking for comebacks next week in Brazil.
There's nobody better than Ferrer at forgetting about a a mid-major loss and bouncing back to bid for another title.
Winners: Belinda Bencic and Venus Williams
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They are going to share a slide after fairly routine work.
Belinda Bencic got to the final of St. Petersburg, meaning that she landed in the top 10 for the first time. Had she won the final against Roberta Vinci, she would have moved up to No. 7 in the tightly packed WTA rankings. She lost in straight sets.
Venus Williams ran through one of the most meager brackets of the next year—or decade. The No. 12-ranked Venus did not have a single opponent at the Taiwan Open ranked higher than No. 62.
The 35-year-old picked up her 49th career title after a slow start in the final to cap off sweeping her five matches for the week.
Loser: February Injuries to Stars
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Prior to the Australian Open, many of the WTA’s top-10 players had to withdraw from one tournament or another because of nagging injuries.
It’s now mid-February and there’s no letup in sight. The latest casualties were Serena Williams and Angelique Kerber, the top two players in the world. Both stars have already pulled out of Dubai.
Throw in Caroline Wozniacki’s left knee injury, Richard Gasquet’s withdrawal as the No. 1 seed at Rotterdam and Roger Federer’s month off for knee surgery, and tennis fans showing up at their locales to watch the stars have to feel disappointed.
It’s likely that the February absences will continue. It’s a softer month for tennis between January’s Australian Open and March’s Masters 1000 tournaments at Indian Wells and Miami where priorities are higher.
Increasingly we are seeing that months like February and July are times for the stars to hibernate and for the opportunist players to make a run at secondary titles.
Winner: Roberta Vinci
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Now that more tennis fans know Roberta Vinci, it’s less of a shock to see her defeat Ana Ivanovic and Belinda Bencic to take a title. That’s exactly what happened as she strolled along behind a very efficient game to take the St. Petersburg title.
Vinci stymied Bencic’s baseline attack with consistent serving, a ton of slice and some mighty fine closes at net. The Swiss player simply didn't seem prepared to play a singles player with the mentality, reflexes and touch of a doubles specialist.
Although Vinci is ranked No. 13 mostly because of her appearance last summer in the U.S. Open final, she is playing with a loose, confident and aggressive approach. Could she crack the top 10 and be a threat at Wimbledon where her skills could dice up some young power players?
Stranger things have happened. Just ask Serena Williams.
Loser: Rafael Nadal
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Instead of looking back at another disappointment and continued title drought, Rafael Nadal might hear the growing clamor to replace his eternal coach and uncle, Toni Nadal.
The 14-time major winner is clearly not the same player he once was, and if he is no longer physically able to retrieve and play clay-court tennis the way he once had, can another coach help him?
Meanwhile, fellow Mallorcan and 1998 French Open titlist Carlos Moya is doing a fine initial job with Australian semifinalist Milos Raonic. Could he have added noteworthy success to Nadal’s game while still keeping a sense of Spanish unity and friendship?
Or should Nadal look completely outside his comfort zone by tapping into a coach who can help him use more lethal aggression with his groundstrokes?
The rumblings might get louder.
Meanwhile, Nadal heads to Brazil for a chance at redemption against a solid bracket. He could really use the title to help him feel more like the days when he was the King of Clay.
Winner: Dominic Thiem
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This was no huge upset. Austrian superpower Dominic Thiem overpowered Spanish superstar Rafael Nadal in the semifinals at Buenes Aires en route to the clay-court title.
Thiem was one of the top winners on clay last year with titles in Nice, Umag and Gstaad. He’s a strong hitter like Stan Wawrinka, and his young legs and improving endurance have already made him a future French Open contender.
Watch the way his baseline strokes carry weight and sidespin. The 22-year-old could start winning some big titles on the European stretch in April.
This week’s victory over Nadal might have been cause for celebration, but then he had to squeak past Nicolas Almagro in the final, including first- and third-set tiebreakers against an experienced clay-courter who played lights out at times.
Thiem stays at No. 19, but he’s only a couple of 100 points from cracking the top 15.
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