Premier League Preview: Valentine's Day Treat as Top 4 Lock Horns

It's been a funny week for romance.

When Merseyside’s moneymen excavated Liverpool’s chest to remove its heart using a £77 serving spoon, it was thought football had finally flatlined. A hole in the ground was being dug when the game’s most vital organ was returned to its still-warm owner with a sorry note attached. Power to the people indeed.

Over in Manchester, another tale of resurrection was being told. English football’s most high-profile bromance has been reported to be on the rocks, but according to Sky Sports, Ed Woodward and Louis van Gaal are doing just fine. For now, it seems a love triangle has turned into one of the Bermuda variety.

Jose Mourinho temporarily disappeared from the scene for at least an hour on Thursday as Manchester United shareholders forgot about the trivialities of winning matches to toast astronomical revenue growth.

Who said romance is dead?

Surely this gooey feel-good factor will extend to a Sunday that is not only genuinely "super" for once but also Valentine’s Day. A fixture list sent from heaven pits first against third and second with fourth. There’ll be no baby boom following this Valentine’s Day.

Leicester City’s unlikeliest of title tilts has had more dreamy episodes than a Mills & Boon bonkbuster sung in its entirety by Serge Gainsbourg. Add into an already heady cocktail the fact they travel to face an Arsenal side managed by the Premier League’s true romantic in a sea of pragmatists, Arsene Wenger, and it’ll be a wonder if the Emirates Stadium pitch isn't covered with rose petals for the occasion.

Indeed whether arch stylist Wenger can temper his overarching obsession with aesthetics to better cope with the Leicester-shaped typhoon heading for north London will likely be the game’s deciding factor. The Frenchman is not prone to demonstrating pusillanimous tendencies, and it would be a surprise were he to adopt them on Sunday. Wenger's indefatigable belief in his working practices recalls the famous Robert Mitchum line about his profession: "I have two acting styles: with and without a horse."

On Saturday, Manchester City thought the best way to quell the league’s best counter-attacking side was to boss possession, play with a high line and allow both full-backs to bomb forward. As tactical battle plans go, it was right up there with Napoleon Bonaparte’s decision to make a play for Russia. The Grand Armee lasted six months before returning to France with 27,000 fit soldiers from half a million that touched down on Russian soil.

To be fair, City couldn’t make it past the third-minute mark without conceding to a routine Leicester set piece. All of which is a crying shame, as there’s not a manager in the league who would look nobler than Manuel Pellegrini leading a team into battle on horseback. It takes a strong silent type to carry off a bicorn hat.

One line of thought is the Premier League’s traditional big hitters are underestimating Leicester’s capabilities. Could it really be the case that the league’s leading luminaries just can’t get their collective head around the fact a team that often fields six starters who were playing in the Championship two seasons ago are now 15-8 favourites for the title?

Not bad for a side that, according to the Irish Independent, have been odds against with bookmakers in 21 of their 25 games this season.

It all seems a little cynical given Claudio Ranieri’s men are hardly a flash-in-the-pan phenomenon, as they hold a five-point advantage atop the Premier League with just 13 matches of the season to play.

Yet at the same time, to leave great swathes of space in behind a back four that counts Martin Demichelis as a member is foolhardy to the point of negligence. With the simplest of out balls hit early, usually by Danny Drinkwater, the Premier League’s top goalscorer, Jamie Vardy, turned Manchester City’s back line with embarrassing regularity. City had no excuse to be caught unaware, with Leicester having played more passes into the final third this season than any other top-flight side.

If Arsenal start Per Mertesacker, they can only hope Petr Cech has already set off from his line. Wenger could favour Gabriel Paulista over his stand-in captain to partner Laurent Koscielny in a bid to combat Leicester’s pace and in particular Vardy, who scored twice when the two sides met in September.

For the purpose of stopping Vardy, I’d take Gabrielle, the singer with the eye patch, over the big German.

Should Arsenal leave reservoirs of space for Vardy and company to swim in behind, it could end up the biggest Valentine’s Day massacre since Al Capone and his crew allegedly eliminated rival Chicago gang members back in 1929.

As a game of contrasts, Sunday’s showdown is set up beautifully. Ranieri loves the opposition to have the ball. No team other than Sunderland (42.8 per cent) and West Bromwich Albion (42.3 per cent) has averaged less possession than Leicester (43.7 per cent) this season. Only Manchester United (55.8 per cent) have had more than Arsenal (55.4 per cent).

With Leicester topping the charts in terms of interceptions, the away side will do as they have done all campaign in sitting deep and hunting possession in packs.

Leicester can look like a trapped mouse at times as they defend deeper and deeper, with Wes Morgan often marshalling his back four from the car park behind the goal. It’s all part of a plan, though, and just as rodents peer down at traps and then up at their potential captors with a look that says, "would you put your beak in that for a slither of cheese?," Leicester aren’t going to forget the advantage they hold, either.

Catching the Foxes when they make a break for it is like capturing a mouse using just hands and cooing noises.

Wenger will be confident his side’s quality on the ball will be enough to draw Leicester out of position. He will certainly be emboldened by their 5-2 victory at the King Power Stadium from earlier in the season. It will take more than a visit from a Leicester side that boasts the best away record in the league to alter a game plan that essentially revolves around the notion he still believes he has the prettiest wife at home.

In Wenger’s defence, teams that play one- and two-touch football and move the ball quickly are a lot harder to press. Pellegrini thought that was the case too.

Wenger's certainly saying all the right things, maybe even indulging in some mind games with his old pal Ranieri, telling Arsenal Player (h/t Arsenal’s official website): "[Beating Bournemouth] is very good for the future as we now have a very big game at home against Leicester who are now the favourites for the Premier League."

Leicester were still searching a first shutout of the campaign when Arsenal visited them earlier in the season. The main difference between Ranieri's side back in September and now, other than escalating confidence on the back of only having lost once in the league since that day, is a defensive unit shored up beyond recognition. In their last seven league games, the Foxes have kept five clean sheets and conceded just twice.

After Liverpool and Manchester City, a date with Arsenal represents the final part of a not-at-all-patronising trilogy of "tests" Leicester have been set to prove their title credentials over the past few weeks. The first two were negotiated with stylish chutzpah, but then we have all seen The Godfather Part III.

So until Sunday is done and dusted, it may be a little premature to place horses’ heads in the beds of Wenger, Pellegrini and Mauricio Pochettino just yet.

After Sunday, Leicester are afforded the rare luxury of a two-week break without a game. In the same period, Arsenal and Manchester City play twice and Tottenham Hotspur three times. If they can keep focus, Leicester’s run-in is by far the least physically demanding. They have just one midweek game scheduled between now and the campaign’s close.

Arsenal’s record against sides that occupy top spot when they play them is dreadful. In the past 11 meetings with table toppers, they have won just once and scored four goals in the process. To be blunt, they’ve choked more times than the mannequin used to demonstrate the Heimlich manoeuvre.

Should they do so again on Sunday, falling eight points behind their visitors in the process, Wenger and his players will face a crowd that will not be shy to voice displeasure. Another campaign that is very much teetering somewhere between being something special and the same old Arsenal will not be decided by what happens against Leicester, but as barometers go, for both clubs, it’s a huge game.

It’s almost certainly the biggest of the season so far.

Can Tottenham Cement 2nd Spot with a Win at Manchester City? 

Tim Ireland/Associated Press/Associated Press/Associated Press

"Telling the entire world and his dog how good a manager I was. I knew I was the best but I should have said nowt and kept the pressure off 'cos they'd have worked it out for themselves." — Brian Clough

It’s taken until 13 games to go, but we’re slowly working it out. Mauricio Pochettino has mastered the art of saying nowt while maintaining his likability. And on the quiet, he’s engineered a title tilt of substance the rest of the world is only just starting to notice.

In a little over 18 months, the erudite Argentinian has transformed his side from Spursy (an affliction that has affected Tottenham since 1961—being pretty with a soft underbelly) to ballsy. It’s a side in his image: understated and effective. It’s not lacking in joie la vivre, either, but refreshingly it’s achieved through the collective rather than the individual. 

In terms of having the perfect blend of style and substance, Pochettino has proved quite the alchemist for Spurs.

Harry Kane may be the poster boy, but he’s unlikely to be modelling his own underwear line anytime soon, with Dele Alli having relieved a little of the burden via a fearless breakthrough season that has been nothing less than sensational at 19 years old.

A seventh Tottenham win in nine matches last time out in the league left Watford boss Quique Sanchez Flores generously purring over his victors in defeat.

"They are like animals," he said, per Sky Sports. "... They have everything a team needs to try to be champions."

Manchester City vs. Tottenham, Sunday at 16.15 p.m. GMT

Tottenham travel to face Manchester City as the Premier League’s form side. Over the past 10 matches they have picked up 22 points, which is one more than Leicester and five more than both Arsenal and their hosts on Sunday.

How City respond to their abject defeat to Leicester last time out could define their season. Should they lose again, the club's decision to announce Pep Guardiola's impending summer arrival at the start of February will look even more reckless.

Leicester’s story has been so remarkable it’s almost as if the hegemonic order that resides in all of us can’t quite cope with being distracted by another underdog's tale. As a consequence, Tottenham’s own headline act, second after 25 matches with a side bristling with youthful brio and boasting the best defensive record in the league, has been relegated to the inside pages. 

That’s just the way Pochettino likes it, per BBC Sport: "It is better not to speak too much, only to show, to work hard. This is the better way to show we are ready to compete and after, we see what happens."

Just as the Etihad Stadium was the venue for an acid test of Leicester's title aspirations in Week 25, it's again the venue for a contender looking to throw haymakers at a heavyweight. Leicester's high intensity proved too much for a Manchester City side susceptible to teams that like to run a lot, given their predilection to amble, and tired limbs will not be given a rest against an exuberant Tottenham side.

It's evens that if Yaya Toure goes to ground at any point over the 90 minutes, he won't get up again. Everyone else will have to play around him while the big Ivorian takes a snooze. 

The corresponding fixture at White Hart Lane was the first real glimpse of what was to follow from Spurs, as Kane broke a barren spell in front of goal in a 4-1 victory in September. Kane has made those who sneered "one-season wonder" look a tad silly ever since, having outscored every other Premier League player.

As ever, Manchester City's hopes rest with Sergio Aguero. Ominously for Spurs, City's pocket rocket has a penchant for scoring against the north Londoners. He's troubled the scoresheet 10 times in just eight matches against the Lilywhites, including four in the same fixture last season.

Having also scored in each of his previous five games to boot, a Spurs back line that is bettered in terms of goals conceded by only Bayern Munich, Juventus, Paris Saint-Germain and Atletico Madrid across Europe's top five leagues this season will need to be as stingy as possible. It's also worth pointing out City have won their last five home matches against Tottenham in all competitions.

David Silva, who hobbled off against Leicester, is likely to add his name to a City injury list that also includes Samir Nasri, Kevin De Bruyne, Jesus Navas, Eliaquim Mangala, Wilfried Bony and Vincent Kompany.

Taking into account it's standing room only in City's treatment room, allied with Spurs' form, it's hard not to conclude the away side will start the game as favourites.

Like with Leicester, that's a test in itself.

Sunderland vs. Manchester United, Saturday at 12.45 p.m. GMT

 
Aston Villa vs. Liverpool, Sunday at 14.05 p.m. GMT

 
All statistics provided by WhoScored.com.