NCAA Tournament 2016: Stock Watch for Bubble Teams at Week 15
With Selection Sunday only a few weeks away, we're getting a clearer picture of how most of the NCAA tournament field will pan out. A number of power-conference teams are considered locks at this point, while nearly everyone else is in a position where it will need to win its league tournament to get a bid.
And then there's the bubble, that group of teams who fall in the middle and could be in or out depending on the projected bracket you consult. The fate of these teams seems to change by the day, the win or the loss, and much will depend on which way they're trending when the NCAA selection committee has to make its cuts.
We're checking in on the current trajectory of some possible bubble teams—not all of them; since the bubble exists in name only, the exact number is fluid—basing this stock report on their results over the last few weeks and what's coming up in the near future.
Stock Up: Alabama
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Avery Johnson was a surprise hire by Alabama, considering he'd never coached at the college level and had been out of the business altogether for more than two years. Now it's looking like a genius-level move, with the Crimson Tide very much in the NCAA tournament discussion.
Wednesday's win at then-SEC co-leader LSU was the latest big win for 'Bama, which is 16-9 overall and 7-6 in league play. It came a few days after a big win at Florida, and also included in a five-game win streak was a home victory over then-No. 15 Texas A&M.
"If this trend continues in the next two weeks, the SEC (Coach of the Year) should be Avery Johnson," ESPN's Andy Katz tweeted Wednesday.
The Tide began SEC play at 1-5 and were 2-6 after losing by 14 at South Carolina on Jan. 30. Since the calendar has switched to February, though, they've been unbeatable.
Now it's a matter of maintaining that pace, or at least not regressing. Three of their last five games are at home, but the toughest remaining games are on the road: Tuesday at Kentucky and the March 5 finale at Georgia.
Stock Down: George Washington
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Way back in November, when it was very easy to make far too much out of one result, George Washington was an early candidate for a breakout team. So it goes when you knock off two-time ACC champion Virginia during the first week of the season.
The Colonials could only ride the good fortune of that win so far, and it appears that's run out. An 8-5 mark in the Atlantic 10 puts them 19-7 overall and three games behind the leaders, down in fifth place in a conference that probably won't get more than four bids.
An early February win at VCU was the last significant achievement for GW. Since then, it has dropped two of three. Those losses came to potential NCAA teams St. Bonaventure and St. Joseph's, but three sub-100 RPI losses (including two in the league) have the Colonials in a position where they need to beat someone good to stay in the picture.
There's only one such opportunity: Feb. 27 at home against VCU. A win there would be big, but only if there isn't another costly loss to counteract it.
Stock Up: California
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As good as California has been at home this season, it has been equally bad when not playing at Haas Pavilion. That trend finally broke on Thursday, with the Golden Bears picking up a much-needed 78-75 win at Washington, their first on the road in the Pac-12 and just the second in 10 non-home games in 2015-16.
Compare that to Berkeley, where Cal is 16-0 and has wins over three ranked teams—Arizona, Oregon and Utah. The Oregon victory came last weekend, part of a four-game win streak that has moved the Bears into a tie for fourth place in the conference.
The Bears have three more road games, and at least two of those are very winnable: Sunday at last-place Washington State and March 5 at second-to-last Arizona State. Combined with at least one more victory at home—they host the Los Angeles schools next week—they should be comfortable heading into the Pac-12 tournament.
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Stock Down: LSU
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An uninspiring performance during the nonconference portion of its schedule meant LSU was going to need to make waves in the SEC to avoid squandering Ben Simmons' only season with the program. It's done that, spending plenty of time at or near the top of the standings, but much like the tides, the Tigers continue to ebb and flow.
Too much of that, and the undertow is going to take them off the bubble and result in the projected No. 1 pick in the NBA draft finishing his college career in the NIT.
The latest slippage came Wednesday, a home loss to Alabama that was LSU's 10th of the season against 16 wins. It also dropped the Tigers to 9-4 in the SEC, a game behind Kentucky.
LSU has lost two of three, the only win coming against Texas A&M, and now the next two games are on the road, where the Tigers are 3-5 in true road games. Lose either at Tennessee or Arkansas, who are a combined 24-28, and they will be in real trouble.
Stock Up: Saint Joseph's
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The Atlantic 10 wants to be considered a power conference, but for the second year in a row, its possible regular-season champion could be sweating out the selection show if it can't win the league tournament. A year ago, it was Davidson, which slipped in with a No. 10 seed. Now, it's co-leader Saint Joseph's.
The Hawks forged a three-way tie with Dayton and VCU at 11-2 in A-10 play after handily beating Dayton at home on Wednesday. That was their fourth straight victory and 11th in their last 12, upping their overall mark to 22-4.
Stock Down: Providence
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Sitting at 14-1 after the first weekend of January, Providence moved to No. 8 in the Associated Press rankings, the highest of any Big East team. What's happened since is the kind of stuff you'll want to make sure not to read about in front of the children.
The Friars are 5-7 since that high point, but it wasn't until recently that things started to go really badly in Providence. They won in overtime at Villanova on Jan. 24 and fell at home to Xavier two days later. Then after squeaking out a road victory over Georgetown, it's been almost all downhill.
Losses in four of their last five, including at DePaul and Marquette, has Providence going from a possible No. 1 seed back in January to a team that can't assume an NCAA bid is coming and might be eliminated from a favorable seed, barring a major turnaround.
"When it plays [at Seton] Hall next week, Providence will have gone more than a month without a win against a team not named Georgetown," CBS Sports' Matt Norlander tweeted after Wednesday's loss at Xavier.
That clash with the Pirates, on Feb. 25, is the only game left where a win can help Providence, while all four remaining regular-season contests can hurt the Friars.
Stock Up: Temple
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A win Wednesday over top-ranked Villanova would have been huge, but Temple is looking pretty good even without that accomplishment, thanks to its performance in the American Athletic Conference.
The Owls are 10-3 in the AAC, a game up on Connecticut and SMU. They have the tiebreaker on those challengers, having swept UConn, and they beat SMU in their only scheduled meeting.
That illustrates Temple's biggest problem this season: beating the teams it should. Its league losses were at home to Houston (by 27 points) and at Memphis and East Carolina. East Carolina is dead-last in the league, at 2-11.
All that remains on the schedule are games that can damage the resume, including three against sub-100 RPI opponents. The toughest remaining tests come up next, Sunday at Houston and two days later at Tulsa.
Stock Down: Washington
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Washington is finding new and increasingly frustrating ways to play itself out of the NCAA tournament, where it hasn't been since 2011. The year after that, the Huskies won the Pac-12 regular-season title but didn't earn a bid, and after having the early lead in this season's conference race, they're headed for another absence.
Once 7-3 in league play, Washington has lost four in a row, including Thursday's three-point home setback to California (which hadn't won on the road in the Pac-12 this season). That dropped its overall record to 15-11, sitting in seventh place in the league, with five losses at home.
"Unless they plan on winning at Oregon next weekend, (the) Huskies' tourney bid is toast," Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller tweeted following Thursday's loss to Cal.
Beating the Ducks, who are tied for first in the Pac-12, would go a long way toward helping Washington earn a bid, as would winning a few days earlier at Oregon State.
Stock Up: Texas Tech
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Tubby Smith got Minnesota into the NCAA tournament in 2013, winning a game in the process, but that wasn't enough to save his job. A week later, he was in Lubbock, Texas, getting started on what's been a three-year process that could translate into Texas Tech's first tourney bid in nine years.
The Red Raiders are still down in seventh place in the 10-team Big 12, but that doesn't begin to tell the story of the hottest team in the conference. Wednesday's home win over Oklahoma was their third straight against a ranked team in an eight-day span. According to ESPN Stats & Info, they had gone 3-52 in such games over the previous 2,258 days.
Tech's other wins in this run were at Baylor and against Iowa State in overtime. The most convincing of the bunch was the road win, crushing Baylor by 18 for its biggest winning margin in Big 12 play under Smith.
Now with seven Top 100 RPI wins and only one sub-100 loss (Jan. 30 at Arkansas), Tech's hopes lie in avoiding any bad losses. It can withstand losses at Kansas and West Virginia, but not to Oklahoma State, TCU or Kansas State.
Stock Up: Wisconsin
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Wisconsin was the hottest team in the Big Ten before losing Thursday at Michigan State, which snapped a seven-game win streak. One loss doesn't change the upward trajectory the Badgers have been on since starting 1-4 in the conference, and if they can keep this going, they'll be able to reach the NCAA tournament for an 18th straight time.
Interim coach Greg Gard needs at least that much to get the full-time gig, as he's gone 9-5 since Bo Ryan retired in mid-December and handed over the reins. Gard's move to extend the bench, giving minutes to the likes of sophomore guard Jordan Hill and freshman forward Alex Illikainen, has started to produce results.
Wisconsin's win streak included victories over Michigan State, Indiana and Maryland, giving it four Top 50 RPI wins this season. That's helped distance itself from the three sub-100 losses it had during the preseason, but not completely.
Remaining games at Iowa and Purdue won't matter as much to the Badgers' fate as those against Illinois, Michigan and Minnesota. Avoid another bad loss and all will be good.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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