2015 Breakout MLB Stars Who Could Prove to Be 1-Year Wonders
Breakout seasons in baseball come in all shapes and sizes, and they don't care about age or experience. Things click for different players at different times, whether it's a 20-something getting his first chance at regular playing time or a career journeyman who may have finally found a home.
But not every breakout season is created equally. Some lead to a long period of sustained success and stardom, while others prove to be nothing more than blips on the radar, creating those one-year wonders who, while memorable, become irrelevant before too long.
Five players are coming off seasons that need to be more closely scrutinized. Some of them have the potential to be solid players. But stars? I think not.
Chris Colabello, 1B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays
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A career .214/.284/.364 hitter heading into 2015, there were no celebrations in the streets of Toronto when the Blue Jays claimed Chris Colabello off waivers from the Minnesota Twins before the season. He was organizational depth at best.
But he got a chance to play in early May and became aggressive at the plate, swinging at more pitches than he ever had before. Since he stepped to the plate with runners on base 43 percent of the time—a benefit of hitting fifth or sixth in Toronto's stacked lineup—opposing pitchers had to throw him first-pitch strikes.
He took advantage of the situation, hitting .321/.367/.520 with 15 home runs and a 142 wRC+, the 14th-highest mark among batters with at least 350 plate appearances. But that aggressive approach led to a strikeout rate of nearly 27 percent and low contact rate.
While his MLB-leading .411 BABIP is unsustainable and indicates he was the beneficiary of some good luck, Colabello's ability to hit line drives and keep fly balls to a minimum is the kind of skill that tends to result in a higher-than-normal BABIP.
Still, it's wise to be suspicious of a player who breaks out in his age-31 season. Colabello is not a .300 hitter, but it's entirely possible he's turned a corner, leaving his days of teetering on the Mendoza Line behind him.
Marco Estrada, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
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Marco Estrada had proved to be a serviceable, albeit unspectacular, pitcher heading into last season. Bouncing between the bullpen and starting rotation for most of his seven-year career, his career 4.23 ERA (4.11 FIP) and 1.19 WHIP were anything but horrid.
It's safe to say that nobody saw his 2015 breakout coming, especially when you consider he wasn't even a part of Toronto's Opening Day rotation. But he'd go 13-8 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over 181 innings of work, garnering enough support for a 10th-place finish in the American League Cy Young Award voting.
Estrada did it despite having the sixth-lowest average fastball velocity and 14th-lowest strikeout rate among 77 qualified starters. And while we've seen plenty of pitchers get by without heat and elite whiffability, a 4.40 FIP and 4.93 xFIP are strong indicators he was more lucky than dominant.
He may prove to be a serviceable starter for the Blue Jays once again in 2016, but he's not the front-of-the-rotation arm he appeared to be.
Odubel Herrera, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
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Odubel Herrera went from a player without a future in Texas to one who could play a big role in Philadelphia's future in 2015, hitting .297/.344/.418 with 41 RBI and 16 stolen bases. He also displayed an above-average glove in center field.
But those numbers were powered by a .387 BABIP, the highest among qualified position players. While it's true that speedsters tend to have higher BABIPs than your average player, Herrera's aggressive approach at the plate and low contact rate make that mark unsustainable.
Herrera's inability to draw a walk (a 5.2 percent walk rate coupled with a 24 percent strikeout rate) is concerning for a player with middling power, as is the fact his numbers were largely powered by a second-half surge, during which time he faced a playoff team only 14 times in 67 games.
Entering his age-24 season, it's too early to call Herrera a one-year wonder. That said, he's going to have to make significant adjustments at the plate if he's to become anything more than a light-hitting, glove-first outfielder.
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Hector Santiago, SP, Los Angeles Angels
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Hector Santiago—correction, American League All-Star Hector Santiago—has always been a pitcher who outperformed his peripherals, so there's less concern about his ugly FIP (4.77) and xFIP (5.00) than there would normally be.
He pitched his way into the Midsummer Classic with a stellar first half that included the eighth-lowest ERA among qualified starters (2.33) and a 1.10 WHIP that landed him in the top 20. What's concerning is what happened after the All-Star break.
Santiago would pitch to baseball's seventh-highest ERA (5.47) and WHIP (1.47), allowing nearly two home runs per nine innings of work. While his final numbers were respectable (3.59 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), he also tied Jeff Samardzija for the AL lead with 29 home runs allowed.
He was also the beneficiary of a nearly 80 percent strand rate and .252 BABIP—both significantly better than his career numbers and another indicator that Santiago was more lucky than good in 2015.
Santiago may prove to be a serviceable starter for the Angels once again in 2016, but stardom is not in his future. In fact, his best days might already be behind him.
Danny Valencia, 3B, Oakland Athletics
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Danny Valencia had shown flashes of ability before, finishing third in the 2010 American League Rookie of the Year voting and smacking 15 homers with 72 RBI in his sophomore campaign. But the career .262/.301/.464 hitter was joining his fifth team in 2015 and was mainly useful in a platoon role.
Then, seemingly out of nowhere, the righty started hitting righties while maintaining his level of production against southpaws, finishing with his sixth team—Oakland claimed him off waivers from Toronto in August—with a .290/.345/.864 slash line, 18 home runs and a 135 wRC+.
It might just be that something finally clicked for the 31-year-old Valencia, who increased his walk rate and made more hard contact than he had in the past. And while his .329 BABIP was higher than his career .304 mark, it's realistic to think it's something he could replicate in 2016.
What are likely to fall, however, are his power numbers. Of his 18 bombs on the year, 13 came against right-handed pitching, resulting in a ridiculous 27.1 percent HR/FB against same-handed pitchers. That's going to drop.
Slated to be Oakland's everyday third baseman and cleanup hitter, Valencia could prove to be a solid regular for the A's. But given his age and the adjustments that opposing pitchers figure to make, his window to perform at such a high level is closing fast.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.
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