'Contender or Pretender' for Every Fringe MLB Playoff Team Entering 2016
Spring training is at long last in sight!
Note the exclamation point. That's because everyone heads to Florida and Arizona with at least a modicum of optimism, and every fan is permitted to dream.
Of course, most of those dreams will be dashed against the rocks of reality. Only 10 out of 30 teams will qualify for the postseason, after all, and only one of those will finish its season with a champagne-drenched victory.
We won't know which dreams are legit until the 162-game grind runs its course, but we can survey the landscape and separate squads into three general categories. In fact, let's do that now.
The top tier (in alphabetical order): Arizona Diamondbacks, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals
The fringe: Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Angels, Miami Marlins, Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners, Tampa Bay Rays
Beyond the fringe: Atlanta Braves, Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers, Oakland A's, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres
Quibble if you want. Those designations are based more on an educated gut feeling than some sort of well-calibrated metric. You could slide the D-backs down into the fringe category, for example, or bump the A's up to the same spot. Inevitably, there's gray area.
Our purpose, though, is to examine those squads that sit squarely in the middle, the teams with legitimate October aspirations as well as significant holes and undeniable uncertainty.
Then, based on current roster construction and difficulty of division, we'll declare each fringe team a contender or pretender.
As ever, feel free to sound off with your take in the comments and proceed when ready.
Baltimore Orioles
1 of 10
As of this writing, the Orioles are in the midst of rumors involving right-hander Yovani Gallardo and outfielder Dexter Fowler, per Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal.
If those deals go down, it'll help shore up a suspect O's rotation that lost Wei-Yin Chen to free agency. And Fowler, a center fielder by trade, would likely slide into the right field slot and at the top of the batting order.
Even without any additions, however, Baltimore lingers on the edge of the postseason picture. After winning the American League East in 2014, the Orioles slid to 81-81 last season. Yet they brought back basher Chris Davis, who joins center fielder Adam Jones and third baseman Manny Machado to form an enviable offensive core.
And the bullpen, led by closer Zach Britton and setup man Darren O'Day, is lights-out.
Again, the rotation looks like the Orioles' biggest weakness at this point, with Ubaldo Jimenez penciled in as the No. 3 starter, according to MLB.com's depth chart. Hence the Gallardo rumors.
Gallardo or Fowler would cost the Orioles a draft pick, since both rejected qualifying offers. But if Baltimore balks at those additions, particularly another arm, it's likely to flutter to the middle of the AL East pack.
Verdict: Pretender (unless those rumors about adding a solid starter are true)
Chicago White Sox
2 of 10
Last winter, the White Sox made a number of splashy signings but limped to a 76-86 finish.
So why should this year be any different? They did upgrade a couple of question-mark positions, adding second baseman Brett Lawrie and third baseman Todd Frazier in trades.
Frazier, in particular, figures to be a difference-maker after bashing 35 home runs last season with the Cincinnati Reds, though it remains to be seen now he'll adjust to the change of leagues and divisions.
Add 2014 AL Rookie of the Year Jose Abreu, who tallied at least 30 dingers and 100 RBI for the second straight season, and center fielder Adam Eaton, and you've got some solid building blocks.
The starting rotation is anchored by Chris Sale, still one of the top southpaws in the game, and bolstered by fellow lefties Jose Quintana and youngster Carlos Rodon, though the back end is less stable.
Really, though, the Sox's chances hinge on their ability to improve an offense that finished 28th in runs scored in 2015. Lawrie and Frazier should help, as could free-agent shortstop Ian Desmond, whom Chicago is considering signing, according to MLB Network's Jon Heyman.
At the moment, though, with the AL Central as crowded and balanced as it is, it feels like the Sox are ticketed for another also-ran campaign.
Verdict: Pretender
Cleveland Indians
3 of 10
After making the rounds as a trendy preseason pick, the Indians finished a distant third in the AL Central last season, 13.5 games back of the eventual-champion Kansas City Royals. Yet FanGraphs is projecting them to win the division this time around.
Is this the year the Tribe deliver on the hype?
The rotation is stocked with high-upside arms, including the whiff-tastic trio of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar.
The offense will miss outfielder Michael Brantley, who is recovering from shoulder surgery. But don't discount the continued emergence of shortstop Francisco Lindor, who coupled stellar glove work with a potent bat en route to a second-place AL Rookie of the Year finish.
Cleveland has question marks in the bullpen. And even if Lindor takes the next step, the offense is far from a world-beater.
It's tempting to resist the hype this time around and slap the Indians with a "pretender" label. But there's enough to like here, particularly the starting pitching, to lean the other way.
Verdict: Contender
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Detroit Tigers
4 of 10
The Tigers made some significant moves this winter, signing right-hander Jordan Zimmermann and left fielder Justin Upton for a combined $242.75 million.
And they boosted a bullpen that posted an ugly 4.38 ERA in 2015 with the additions of Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Lowe and Justin Wilson.
There are still question marks, however.
The rotation, even with the addition of Zimmermann, needs Justin Verlander to build on his second-half comeback and Anibal Sanchez to recover from a disastrous campaign that saw him post a 4.99 ERA.
And the lineup, while potent in the middle, needs veterans Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez to stay healthy.
The Tigers are getting older. Their run of four consecutive division titles ended with a last-place finish in 2015. And, broken record alert, the AL Central is a balanced division. Someone (more than one someone, actually) is going to end up on the outside looking in.
Still, if the new additions to the lineup, rotation and relief corps play up to their ability and the veterans stay off the disabled list, it's not difficult to imagine Detroit motoring back into the playoff mix.
Verdict: Contender
Los Angeles Angels
5 of 10
Here's how Grant Brisbee of SB Nation recently summed up the Angels, and while it's going to sting for Halos fans to read it (avert your eyes!), it's basically the truth: "The Angels might be history's most boring team if you limit the pool to 'contending teams that employ the best player in the world.'"
That'd be Mike Trout, of course, the franchise cornerstone and the primary reason Los Angeles can't be counted out.
Yes, the Angels added slick-fielding shortstop Andrelton Simmons from the Atlanta Braves. The lineup, though, is high on uncertainty and low on wow factor.
Albert Pujols is recovering from foot surgery. After that, the best options to protect Trout are guys like Kole Calhoun and Yunel Escobar, serviceable hitters but far from elite.
The pitching staff could get a jolt from the continued emergence of youngster Andrew Heaney, who would pair nicely with Garrett Richards. But the Angels could have used another arm as well as another bat this winter.
Instead, they're stuck with a debilitating payroll and barren farm system, which has toppled them off their perch in the AL West.
Verdict: Pretender
Miami Marlins
6 of 10
Oh, the Marlins. Never a dull moment with this bunch.
We could talk about Barry Bonds, hitting coach and budding clubhouse distraction. We could talk about the curious trade rumors that swirled around ace Jose Fernandez and outfielder Marcell Ozuna. We could talk about the long series of blunders and bait-and-switch tactics that led yours truly to compare owner Jeffrey Loria to Mr. Burns and Michael Scott.
Honestly, though, the Marlins aren't that bad.
They've got Fernandez, who, if healthy, has some of the nastiest stuff in the game. They've got Giancarlo Stanton, arguably MLB's best pure power hitter. They've got Dee Gordon, last season's hits and stolen bases leader.
And they added Wei-Yin Chen to bolster the rotation, a move that seemed incongruous after the Fernandez and Ozuna rumors but that probably made Miami better, at least in the short term.
Oh, and let's not forget new skipper Don Mattingly, whose hire was overshadowed by the Bonds bombshell. While he left the Los Angeles Dodgers under less-than-ideal circumstances, Mattingly has the credibility to unite a clubhouse that was torn apart last season by the firing of manager Mike Redmond and the ill-fated installation of general manager Dan Jennings in the dugout.
As usual, there are a million questions swirling in South Beach and just as many ways this experiment could lurch into the sea like a leaky cruise ship.
But, call us crazy, these Fish have the talent to make it a three-team race in the National League East with the Mets and Nationals, or at least to challenge for a wild-card berth.
In fact, winning despite the distractions (then unceremoniously tearing it all down) might be the most Marlins thing they could do.
Verdict: Contender (why not?)
Minnesota Twins
7 of 10
The Minnesota Twins weren't supposed to arrive last season, but arrive they did, to the tune of an 83-79 record.
That didn't get them into the postseason, but it did serve notice to the rest of the league that the up-and-coming Twinkies were coming ahead of schedule.
Last year's breakout rookie, Miguel Sano, should be joined in the lineup by center fielder Byron Buxton. And heralded pitching prospect Jose Berrios appears on track to stick in the big leagues as well.
The rotation, fronted by Phil Hughes and Ervin Santana, lacks a true ace. And relying on young players to carry the load is always a dicey proposition.
But manager Paul Molitor, now entering his second year at the helm, helped mold this club into a winner. There's an opportunity to build on that in 2016.
"I don’t think we're a typical team in a year-to-year thing and that you expect things to pick up where they left off," Molitor said, per the Star-Tribune's La Velle E. Neal III. “Each season stands on its own. You hope the things that were positives in the previous year creep into the next year."
Here's betting they do, at least enough to keep the Twins in the picture.
Verdict: Contender
New York Yankees
8 of 10
After being knocked out in the AL Wild Card Game by the Astros last season, the Yankees are looking for the kind of sustained postseason run that used to be an annual ritual in the Bronx.
Can they do it? Not without a hefty dose of good health.
Sure, that's true for every team. But you'd be hard-pressed to find a would-be contender relying on more creaky veterans than the Yanks.
In the rotation, it's Masahiro Tanaka and CC Sabathia, who have battled injuries and, in the case of Sabathia, off-field troubles. Remember, Tanaka had elbow surgery in October to remove a bone spur.
In the lineup, it's Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran and Mark Teixeira, all of whom are on the wrong side of 35 and one twinge or tweak away from an extended absence.
OK, now the good news. The bullpen remains top-notch with the addition of flame-throwing closer Aroldis Chapman, who joins forces with Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances. And maybe mercurial infielder Starlin Castro can thrive in pinstripes after a checkered history with the Cubs.
New York has also done a nice job of rebuilding its farm system, with power-hitting prospect Aaron Judge looking to leave his mark at some point in 2016.
If we're ranking the AL East hopefuls, the big-bopping Blue Jays and retooled Red Sox land at the top. But the Yankees can stay in the race and could have a chance to plug holes at the trade deadline if they're willing to break up that ludicrous late-inning bullpen troika.
Verdict: Contender
Seattle Mariners
9 of 10
The Mariners and general manager Jerry Dipoto have made a flurry of offseason moves, adding ancillary pieces like outfielder Nori Aoki, first baseman Adam Lind and left-hander Wade Miley.
They join a club anchored by ace Felix Hernandez and an offensive core of Kyle Seager, Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano.
After just missing the playoffs in 2014, Seattle posted a dispiriting 76-86 mark last season. Part of the blame fell on a bullpen that blew 24 saves and ranked 25th in baseball with a 4.15 ERA.
Dipoto has made changes there, too, bringing in Steve Cishek to assume closing duties and acquiring setup man Joaquin Benoit from the San Diego Padres.
The Texas twosome of the Astros and Rangers remain the division favorites, but if Dipoto's myriad moves settle into place, Seattle could insert itself into the picture and recapture some of that 2014 near-magic.
Verdict: Contender
Tampa Bay Rays
10 of 10
It's still all about pitching in Tampa Bay, where Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi form a sterling top-of-the-rotation tandem.
Add a team defense that ranked fourth-best in baseball, per FanGraphs, and you've got a throw-ball, catch-ball formula that makes the Rays a fun outside-the-box pick to contend in the noisy AL East.
If they did, vaulting past the big-spending likes of the Yankees and Red Sox, it'd be one heck of a small-market success story. And it's not like the Rays are a stranger on the October stage. They advanced to the division series as recently as 2013.
Still, an offense that scored the second-fewest runs in the Junior Circuit last season will have to find a way to support the pitching and stellar glove work.
Pitcher Matt Moore recently told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times he feels the team has added "thump" to the lineup. But Corey Dickerson, who has played his entire career for the Rockies, owns extreme splits away from the rarefied air of Coors Field.
Last year, on the other hand, the NL champion Mets proved a club could ride its power arms into the summer and then add offensive depth at the deadline if needed. So there's the blueprint if the Rays can follow it.
Verdict: Contender
All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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