MLB Teams That Will Overachieve, Underachieve Based on 2016 Payrolls
You get what you pay for. It's a truism in life, but not necessarily in baseball.
Every season features at least a few low-budget Davids who rack up victories despite puny payrolls. Likewise, some deep-pocketed Goliaths invariably sink in the standings.
With most of the winter's marquee free agents off the board and the gaudy checks written, we have a pretty clear idea of who's spending what. We won't know how it all plays out until, well, it all plays out. But we can make some educated guesses about which teams are most likely to get the maximum—and minimum—bang for their buck.
To be clear: The idea is to identify high rollers who could easily miss the postseason and maybe even log losing records as well as spendthrift organizations that look like legitimate October threats.
So a team like the Los Angeles Dodgers, who rank No. 1 in payroll and figure to make a strong push for another National League West crown, don't make the cut. And neither do the Milwaukee Brewers, baseball's smallest spenders and a virtual lock to finish at or near the bottom of the NL Central.
Payroll figures for 2016 remain in flux with arbitration cases pending, but we're pulling the most recent numbers from Spotrac.com. You'll also see projected win totals from FanGraphs, though we're using them as a jumping-off point rather than a final arbiter. All other statistics, unless otherwise noted, come courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
Underachiever: Detroit Tigers
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2016 Payroll (MLB Rank): $197.3 million (3rd)
FanGraphs' Projected Record: 81-81
The Tigers made a pair of significant splashes this winter, signing right-hander Jordan Zimmermann and left fielder Justin Upton for a combined $242.75 million. So no one can accuse them of not going for it.
Whether they'll get there is another matter. Despite their offseason investments and top-three payroll, the Tigers have question marks all over.
The rotation, even with the addition of Zimmermann, is relying on Justin Verlander to build on his second-half comeback and Anibal Sanchez to recover from a disastrous campaign that saw him post a 4.99 ERA.
The lineup, while potent, needs veterans Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez to stay healthy.
Then there's the bullpen, which posted an unsightly 4.38 ERA last season. Will the addition of Francisco Rodriguez be enough? That's an open question.
The bottom line is this: The Tigers are getting older. Their run of four consecutive division titles ended with a last-place finish in 2015. And while the American League Central is up for grabs, it's a balanced division with no clear doormat. And it's ruled, until further notice, by the defending world champion Kansas City Royals.
If the new additions play up to or beyond their pedigree and the cast of veterans stays on the field, it's possible Detroit could be in the playoff mix. If not, it'll be another stalled season in the Motor City.
Overachiever: Pittsburgh Pirates
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2016 Payroll (MLB Rank): $92.3 million (20th)
FanGraphs' Projected Record: 84-78
For the all hype that's surrounded the retooled Chicago Cubs and their quest to dethrone the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central, it's easy to forget that the Pittsburgh Pirates posted the second-best record in baseball last season at 98-64.
Yes, they suffered a second consecutive one-and-done loss in the NL Wild Card Game, this time against those same Cubbies. But the Bucs have unambiguously established themselves as a perennial Senior Circuit contender despite a payroll that ranks near the bottom third in MLB.
Francisco Liriano and Andrew McCutchen will be the Pirates' highest-paid players at $13.7 million and $13.2 million, respectively, next season. But ace Gerrit Cole is still a year away from arbitration eligibility, and other key contributors such as Starling Marte ($3.3 million) and Jung Ho Kang ($2.5 million) are owed exceedingly manageable amounts in 2016.
The Pirates haven't had a splashy offseason, opting instead for mid-level additions like left-hander Jon Niese, acquired in a trade with the New York Mets for second baseman Neil Walker. But, as Joshua Choudhury of Bucs Dugout correctly spelled out, such is the annual winter fate of Pirates fans:
"Rooting for the Pirates during this period is sort of like being the kid who, while every other red-blooded American eight-year-old exercised their God-given right to achieve Snickers-fueled nirvana on Halloween, ended up munching on carrots and celery. There's probably a long-run payoff there, but it doesn't make the present any easier to stomach (literally or figuratively).
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The Cubs are the division darlings and, in fairness, the legit favorites. And you can never count out the Cards. But expect the Pirates to be right there with them as they attempt to build on their recent success and bust the wild-card curse.
Underachiever: New York Yankees
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2016 Payroll (MLB Rank): $210.2 million (2nd)
FanGraphs' Projected Record: 85-77
The Yankees made it back to the postseason in 2015 for the first time since 2012, which counts as a drought in the Bronx.
Of course, it was a short-lived trip, as the Yanks were promptly ousted in the AL Wild Card Game by the Houston Astros. Can the Junior Circuit's biggest spenders get back to October and advance further? Maybe, maybe not.
It's cliche to say it depends on health, as that's true for every team. The Yankees, though, are leaning especially hard on a gaggle of creaky veterans.
In the rotation, it's Masahiro Tanaka and CC Sabathia, who have battled injuries and, in the case of Sabathia, off-field issues.
In the starting lineup, it's Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran and Mark Teixeira, all of whom are on the wrong side of 35 and teetering on the brink of decline.
The bullpen remains an unmitigated strength with the addition of flame-throwing closer Aroldis Chapman. And it bears watching whether talented-but-mercurial second baseman Starlin Castro can thrive in pinstripes after a checkered history with the Cubs.
Mostly, though, the Yanks have too much cash tied up in the likes of Rodriguez and Sabathia—who will earn a minimum combined $46 million next season—to go after any big-ticket free agents.
That's not the only path to success, and New York has done a nice job of rebuilding its farm system. But unless Miracle Max has recently joined the Yankees' training staff, this feels like a club ready to succumb to the ravages of time and stumble to also-ran status behind the rival Boston Red Sox and potent Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East.
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Overachiever: Cleveland Indians
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2016 Payroll (MLB Rank): $78.2 million (25th)
FanGraphs' Projected Record: 84-78
Hey, remember last year when the Indians were going to win the World Series, according to Sports Illustrated?
So much for that.
Instead, Cleveland finished a distant third in the AL Central, 13.5 games back of the Royals. Yet FanGraphs is tapping them to rule the division. Is this the year the Tribe make good on the hype?
The rotation is stocked with enviable arms, including the bat-missing trio of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar.
The offense, meanwhile, will miss outfielder Michael Brantley, who is recovering from shoulder surgery. But don't discount the continued emergence of shortstop Francisco Lindor, who coupled stellar glove work with a potent bat en route to a second-place AL Rookie of the Year finish. (As I argued at the time, you could make a case that Lindor deserved the award over Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa.)
Regardless, the Indians are set to contend despite a payroll that paces just five other teams. If only Sports Illustrated would keep its curse-doling yap shut.
Underachiever: Los Angeles Angels
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2016 Payroll (MLB Rank): $163.6 million (5th)
FanGraphs' Projected Record: 81-81
The Angels have Mike Trout. As long as that's true, there's hope.
But the Halos did precious little to build on that Trout-shaped cornerstone this winter. They acquired slick-fielding shortstop Andrelton Simmons from the Atlanta Braves. The lineup, though, is riddled with uncertainty.
Albert Pujols, who will earn $25 million next season, is recovering from foot surgery. After that, the best options are guys like Kole Calhoun and Yunel Escobar, serviceable starters but far from game-changers.
The pitching staff may get a boost from the continued emergence of youngster Andrew Heaney, who would pair nicely with Garrett Richards. But the Angels could have used another arm as well as another bat.
Instead, they're stuck with a bloated payroll and depleted farm system, which has pushed them off their perch in the AL West.
With Trout around to do Trout things, all is not lost. But after missing the playoffs five of the last six years, it's time for Los Angeles to consider a drastic change of course.
Overachiever: Houston Astros
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2016 Payroll (MLB Rank): $85.8 million (23rd)
FanGraphs' Projected Record: 86-76
Last winter, Houston Astros owner Jim Crane predicted his team would reach the postseason in 2015. At the time, it seemed like a reach. The Astros were widely regarded as a rebuilding team on the rise, but the general feeling was they weren't ready for prime time.
As it turns out, the 'Stros led the AL West for most of the season, claimed a wild-card berth and advanced to the division series, where they pushed the eventual-champion Royals to five games.
"I got a lot of heat over that," Crane said of his prescient prognostication, per Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle. "Nobody believed me. We thought we had a good nucleus of guys and it came together well. We're really proud of what they did. I think we're really focused on this year now. And with a few additions that we made we think we have a really good chance of doing it again this year."
One of those additions is burgeoning closer Ken Giles, a cost-controlled talent acquired from the Philadelphia Phillies.
AL Rookie of the Year Carlos Correa also comes on the cheap, as does leadoff man and three-time All-Star Jose Altuve, who will earn a skimpy $3.5 million next season.
Even ace Dallas Keuchel, who broke a record by inking a $7.25 million deal in his first year of arbitration, is a relative steal. He is the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, after all.
The Astros will have competition in the West from the Texas Rangers, who won the division in 2015, as well as the retooled Seattle Mariners and the aforementioned flawed-yet-dangerous Angels. Heck, even the Oakland A's, MLB's small-market poster child, could slip into the picture.
But Houston looks like the favorite despite spending less on its entire roster than the Dodgers will on their pitching staff alone.
If the Astros can fulfill their promise and make a deep playoff run, they'll be laughing all the way to the bank.
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