NFL MVP 2016: Award Candidates, Odds and Predictions

Before the 2015-16 NFL season comes to a complete close with Super Bowl 50 on Sunday, the league has a bit of business to take care of in handing out individual awards from the regular season.

The NFL Honors ceremony is set for Saturday at 9 p.m. ET on CBS. From humanitarian honors to rookie sensations to the best play of the season, there is much for the league to celebrate by singling out individuals for their efforts.

Chief among these accolades is the Most Valuable Player Award, which goes to the league's brightest star who meant the most to his team's season. 

OddsShark did a rundown of the top contenders and their odds on Dec. 19, three weeks before the end of the regular season. 

Player, Pos., Team	Odds	Author Ranking
Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers	-500	1
Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots	+350	4
Carson Palmer, QB, Arizona Cardinals	+1200	2
Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks	+1200	3

Other players who deserve a mention but likely didn't get as much attention from award-voters are Pittsburgh's Antonio Brown—136 receptions and 1,834 yards while maintaining some punt return duties—and Houston's J.J. Watt, who led the league with 17.5 sacks and is more disruptive than any other defensive player in the league.

Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins also deserves recognition for putting up a stellar season while catching passes from four mostly unremarkable quarterbacks.

As for the quarterbacks listed in the table above, Russell Wilson actually might have a better MVP case than Tom Brady, as he kept up his strong play through the final three weeks of the season to cap a seven-game stretch in which he threw for 21 touchdowns and just one interception. 

Ronald C. Modra/Sports Imagery/Getty Images

Wilson also has an edge over the other two as a dynamic rusher. He kept defenses off-balance with his scrambling ability and torched some strong defenses—including Palmer's Cardinals in the final week of the regular season—without being able to depend on either Marshawn Lynch or Thomas Rawls at times due to injury. 

Brady, 38, is only one year younger than Peyton Manning, but unlike his legendary counterpart, he's shown no signs of hitting a wall in his later years. He threw for 36 touchdowns and seven interceptions in the regular season and didn't let his performance suffer dramatically when the likes of Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola missed games due to injury. 

However, Palmer might edge him out as the better aging pocket passer, and that's not just due to Brady's fatigue.

Palmer threw for 4,671 yards, 35 touchdowns and 11 interceptions during the regular season, expertly marshaling a talented group of pass-catchers that includes Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown. He did all this at 36 years old and coming off a devastating ACL injury at the end of the 2014-15 season.

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Palmer maintained in January that fear never entered his mind when returning to the gridiron for his spectacular season.

“Not fears. Anticipation and expectation, but no fear whatsoever,” Palmer said, per USA Today's Nancy Armour. “You can fear a lot of stuff, but at the end of the day, you have to put the work in, and go out and execute when it is time to execute to get back there.”

His play was good enough that Pro Football Focus chose him as their season MVP.

What might hurt him in the broader MVP voting is that, at least compared to Brady and Wilson during the final quarter of the season, he always had a great rushing attack to fall back on. From Chris Johnson to David Johnson, the Cardinals were never in need of a threatening running back. The rookie Johnson also served as a fine receiving outlet for Palmer.

Palmer's poor performance in Week 17 against Seattle might also have left a sour taste for voters who admired his consistency over the course of the season.

Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

In any case, the arguments for the above three quarterbacks pale in comparison to the ones that can be made for Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton.

Newton kept up his stellar play through the final stretch of the regular season, capping it with 293 passing yards and four touchdowns against Tampa Bay in Week 17. He electrified the NFL with his ability to both run and pass the football with aplomb, as well as his exuberance, leadership and savvy play.

While his completion percentage remained relatively low at 59.8 percent, Newton did show a knack for making clutch throws, perhaps boasting the best bullet pass in the league this season.

While Palmer is very much a sentimental choice for some, CBS Sports' John Breech noted that Newton wasn't all that far off from Palmer as a passer and was even better in one telling statistic: 

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If you want to try and define an MVP in the passing era with one stat, touchdown percentage is a good one to pick. The singular goal of an NFL game is to score more points than your opponent, so if your quarterback is throwing touchdowns at a higher rate than anyone else, you're at an inherent advantage.

Since 2010, every quarterback who won MVP has ranked either first or second in touchdown percentage. Palmer finished the season ranked third (6.5 percent), behind Newton and Russell Wilson (7.0 percent).

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Plus, accruing 45 total touchdowns (35 passing, 10 rushing) in the regular season and stretching the boundaries of what is possible at the quarterback position are more than enough for Newton to hang on to his favorite status.

This is Newton's award to lose, and it's doubtful enough voters will conjure up reasons to decide otherwise. Save for possibly Palmer, any other choice is likely to generate controversy. Newton is the once and future king of the league, and this is the season to recognize him as such.