Super Bowl Ads 2016: Analyzing Value and Cost of Top Commercials

The Super Bowl's popularity comes through three avenues. First, football attracts a crowd like no other sport in this country. Second, Super Bowl Sunday is treated like a national holiday in which friends and family get together for a party. And third, the commercials give people who aren't fans of the game something to focus on. 

The popularity of the game helps inform the commercials, particularly on the business side. Television viewership among younger demographics is in decline, with Stephen Battaglio of the Los Angeles Times providing the statistical evidence:

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There's been an 11.8% decline in TV viewing of any kind — broadcast, cable or DVR — among men in the 18- to 34-year-old age group. Viewers between 18 and 24 had an even steeper 16% drop, while women in the same range slipped 8.8%. By comparison, regular TV usage among viewers in the 55-plus age group grew 2.2%.

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Young demographics are what all advertisers want to appeal to. If you've ever read any television ratings story, which I have because it's something that fascinates me for reasons not entirely explainable, there will be at least two sets of numbers listed: total viewers and 18-49 viewers. 

The Super Bowl is the one television event guaranteed to appeal to all four quadrants of the marketing demographic every year. 

Year	Total Viewers	18-49 Rating	Final Result
Super Bowl 45 (Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers)	111 million	39.9	Packers, 31-25
Super Bowl 46 (New York Giants vs. New England Patriots)	111.3 million	40.5	Giants, 21-17
Super Bowl 47 (Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers)	108.69 million	39.7	Ravens, 34-31
Super Bowl 48 (Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos)	111.5 million	39.3	Seahawks, 43-8
Super Bowl 49 (New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks)	114.5 million	47.5	Patriots, 28-24

Putting those numbers in perspective, according to Alex Weprin of Capital New York, four of the last five Super Bowls have set ratings records. 

Illustrating the game's power, Seattle's 43-8 blowout of Denver two years ago was at the time the most watched Super Bowl in history. Fans don't even turn off their television when the game's outcome is easily determined. 

This year, CBS is going to cash in on the Super Bowl. According to Lindsay Kramer of Syracuse.com, advertisers will spend $5 million for a 30-second spot.

Kramer also noted that's a steep increase from what was being spent just one year ago: "Last year, 30 seconds worth of commercial time in the game ran $4.5 million. The $500,000 price hike from 2014 to 2015 and then from 2015 to this season are the largest year-to-year dollar amount increases in the history of the Super Bowl."

There is some dispute about the actual value of running an ad during the Super Bowl, with Forrester principal analyst Jim Nail telling Michelle Castillo of CNBC.com resources like that could be better spread out elsewhere.

"I've always questioned how valuable it is compared to what you can do with that other $5 million on other kinds of television programs," Nail told Castillo. 

Those sentiments were echoed in Castillo's report by chief creative strategist and partner for creative media agency Noble People, Todd Alchin:

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If you said to a marketing director or CEO, 'We're going to talk to your customers this year for exactly half a minute. Then we're going to do nothing until maybe next year,' you're betting a lot that everything fires perfectly in that 30 seconds. It's not a sound strategy. Marketing needs more repetition and longevity than that. Perhaps it's akin to considering a marriage only on the wedding day.

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Nail did note that there is special value to the Super Bowl because "ads have become as integral to the program as the game." He also mentioned it's the one prime-time night of the year in which everyone in the country is actually paying attention to the ads. 

Two years ago, in an article for Forbes, Siltanen & Partner advertising chief creative officer Rob Siltanen wrote the Super Bowl is as close to a sure thing as there is:

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And, for good marketers with smart and creative ad agencies, the Super Bowl is one the safest bets I’ve ever seen. What other venue better assures that people are going to watch your commercial or talk about your brand more than being on the Super Bowl? What other venue says you’re a first-rate, big-time, trustworthy brand more than the Super Bowl? What other place allows you to catch the eyes of 108 million men and women with one fell swoop?

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Advertising is many things. It's about showcasing a brand, making that brand unique and special to the people watching and finding a way to get those people to change brands on a product they are naturally predisposed to buy. 

For instance, one of the big spots for this year's Super Bowl features Seth Rogen and Amy Schumer in a mock political campaign for Bud Light:

The people who made the commercial are clearly plugged into popular celebrities with young appeal. Schumer is about as red-hot as a star can get with a critically acclaimed television show and a hit movie under her belt. 

According to an August 2015 article by the Daily Meal, Bud Light is the sixth best-selling beer. The best way to improve that number is by finding a way to get people to change their buying patterns, which isn't easy to do. 

People have a natural tendency to follow the same patterns day after day, week after week, year after year. Think of what you did this morning and what order you brushed your teeth, took a shower and ate breakfast. Chances are good it was the same way you did it yesterday and will do it tomorrow. 

Yet, if a company can bank on the popularity of celebrities, especially for the younger generation, and provide some fun insight about why its product is the best, its $5 million investment during the Super Bowl will pay itself off in no time.