2016 NBA Draft Prospects: Breaking Down the Pro Future of Stephen Zimmerman
Stephen Zimmerman will be entering the NBA in the perfect era for his skill set.
Back in the day, NBA teams were searching for back-to-the-basket post players who they could dump the ball down to and have that guy get them buckets. Some teams are still searching for that, but there's less of a premium on post-up scorers in today's NBA, which has become more of a guard's game.
| Age | 19 (Born Sept. 9, 1996) |
| Team | UNLV |
| Height | 7'0" |
| Weight | 240 |
Zimmerman is a good fit in the league because he's at his best operating as a screener in the pick-and-roll or pick-and-pop, and he has a good enough jump shot to spread the floor. Defensively, he fits the prototype of what most teams are searching for out of their center.
"It's so en vogue, you have to have a rim protector and be able to guard in space and move around and guard three guys in every possession," an NBA scout told Bleacher Report. "Zimmerman can do all of that stuff."
So a big man who can shoot, kill it in the pick-and-roll, block shots and guard multiple positions—that sure sounds like a lottery pick, doesn't it?
Zimmerman could end up going there, but as you'll see in this scouting report, Zimmerman's numbers as a freshman and a lack of strength could cause some hesitation for a lottery team to pull the trigger.
Relevant Stats
| 11.1 | 9.2 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 48.3 | 62.5 |
For a freshman, Zimmerman's scoring numbers are solid, and he's put up better numbers in conference play (12.9 points and 11.1 rebounds per game), but that production doesn't exactly scream one-and-done lottery pick. The fact he's improved throughout the year is encouraging.
It's important to look beyond the stats when evaluating Zimmerman. Other than shot blocking and rebounding, the numbers don't paint the picture on why he's valuable.
Strengths
"He's 7'0" tall and has a lot of talent," a second NBA scout said. "He's very coordinated for a player his size. High skill level. Shoots. He can pass. He can face up a little bit. He hasn't perfected any of these things, but you see the foundation for a highly skilled player."
This is why Zimmerman is viewed as a first-round prospect and potential lottery pick despite the fact that his numbers as a freshman aren't going to blow anyone away.
As the scout said, you see the foundation for a highly skilled player, and he could be someone who impresses in workouts because of his skill.
The ability to play out of the pick-and-roll is what Zimmerman does best right now. He has a good sense of when to slip early to the basket, hold his screen and then roll or pop out into open space. Put him with the right guard and he's dangerous. He can make catches in traffic and gather quickly to score.
What's most promising for his next-level projections is his ability to catch and shoot from 15-17 feet. That's where Zimmerman is most comfortable right now. He likes operating in space and is consistent at knocking down open looks from the mid-range. He's the best shooter out of the college center prospects, and while he hasn't shot the three often (5-of-14 this season), he should be able to expand his range over time.
Zimmerman's passing ability is one aspect of his game that is easy to overlook at this point, likely because the assist numbers (0.8 per game) aren't there, but he has good vision, especially out of the mid-post area.
Where he's comfortable on the offensive end is similar to his defensive abilities. He's solid guarding against ball screens and does a good job helping to contain the ball. As a shot-blocker at the rim, he has good timing and is willing to challenge drivers.
Weaknesses
Almost every one of Zimmerman's weaknesses have to do with a lack of strength.
On the defensive end, a stronger player can dictate where he wants to go and bury Zimmerman in the post. He's a good rebounder, but his lack of strength can be a problem on the boards as well. When he played against San Diego State, who has older big men that have developed their bodies, the Aztec bigs were able to knock Zimmerman out of the way when they wanted to get to a rebound in his area.
This is also a problem for Zimmerman when he's trying to score from the blocks. He's never been comfortable operating with his back to the basket, although he's progressed this season. He has a nice running lefty hook in the lane, and he can score when he gets good position and gets to the move he wants to make. The issue is getting there.
| 1. A.J. Hammons, Purdue | 87.7 |
| 2. Kennedy Meeks, UNC | 80.4 |
| 3. Kaleb Tarczewski, Arizona | 72.5 |
| 4.Diamond Stone, Maryland | 72.2 |
| 5. Domantas Sabonis, Gonzaga | 71.6 |
| 6. Damian Jones, Vandy | 71.4 |
| 7. Chinanu Onuaku, Louisville | 69.6 |
| 8. Jakob Poeltl, Utah | 68.2 |
| 9. Prince Ibeh, Texas | 67.4 |
| 9. Skal Labissiere, UK | 67.4 |
| 11. Stephen Zimmerman, UNLV | 59.8 |
A physical defender can prevent Zimmerman from getting into his move. He's also left-hand and right-shoulder dominant. He's started to develop some counters in the post—he's shown off a nice up-and-under—but when a defender takes away his right shoulder, he might as well pass it back out.
His struggles in this area of the floor are illustrated by his shooting percentages around the rim. He has shot 59.8 percent at the rim, according to Hoop-Math.com, which is lower than any of top center prospects projected to go in the draft (see chart).
Zimmerman has tried to compensate for his lack of strength by getting the ball about 15 feet out from the basket and trying to use his quickness to get around defenders. This is where a lot of his turnovers originate, as he's losing the ball when he puts it on the floor.
"He hasn't figured out just because you can dribble doesn't mean you should," the second scout said. "He's got to learn when to call on what skill and not make things more complicated than they have to be. A lot of this will be solved if he just gets stronger. Then he can get the ball, say, 'I'm going to do what I do and you'll have to stop it.' And then when guys stop it, he can start to go to his counter move and his other skills."
NBA Player Comparisons
The two names who came up with Zimmerman were Raef LaFrentz and Omer Asik.
The LaFrentz comp makes a lot of sense. Both are lefties who can shoot, and LaFrentz is a good example of a guy who was a good mid-range shooter in college and developed his range in the NBA.
LaFrentz made only 13 threes in four years at Kansas. In his second year in the NBA, he made 60 threes, and he has made more than 100 threes in a season twice. LaFrentz was also a good shot-blocker, especially early in his career before knee problems slowed him down. He averaged 2.5 blocks per game over his first four seasons and was actually a better shot-blocker in the NBA than he was at Kansas, where his best season he averaged 1.5 blocks per game.
This gives some hope that Zimmerman could become a better shot-blocker than he is now. Athletically, he's similar to a young LaFrentz.
The Asik comp comes with an asterisk.
"He kind of reminds me of Asik with more offense," the first scout said. "It's going to take him a while and he's got to add bulk, but he can be a serviceable defensive presence and protect the basket, run in transition every time and build from that. He definitely has more potential and upside as an offensive player."
Best-Case Scenario
The ideal scenario for Zimmerman is that all of the skills he has now continue to improve and he becomes one of the best shooting centers in the league with the ability to score on the occasional post-up, but it's going to take time for him to get there.
"He's a player you're drafting on potential because he doesn't do anything great yet, and it's going to take a while for his body to mature," the second scout said. "He's going to have to be committed to getting in the weight room and eating the right foods and you're going to have to wait on him to do that. It's not going to happen overnight."
If Zimmerman does get stronger and learns how to hold his position, he has the measurables and skills to become a starter in the league. He could be a double-double threat, and if paired with a playmaking guard in the pick-and-roll, Zimmerman could be a very important piece in the right kind of offense. The good news is it's easier to develop a guy's body and add strength than it is to turn a nonshooter into a shooter, especially at the center position.
Worst-Case Scenario
He doesn't develop his body enough to get on the floor.
"He'll be able to post up, but you want him to continue to develop his post game," the second scout said. "You want him to continue to develop his right hand, but if he doesn't get stronger, who cares? He's not going to be able to get the ideal position to go to that tool box if he doesn't get stronger."
This is the determination NBA teams will have to make: Do they believe Zimmerman will put in the work to get strong enough to match up with NBA bigs?
March Impact
While scouts put varying degrees of importance on a player's performance in the NCAA tournament, with the eyes of the nation on March Madness, playing well or poorly in the most important games of the season can certainly sway one's opinions. Some players like the UConn Huskies' Shabazz Napier have used the tournament as a springboard to rise up draft boards in recent years.
Unless the Runnin' Rebels win the Mountain West conference tournament, they're not making the NCAA tournament.
They could end up playing in the NIT, and that would be good for Zimmerman. He seems to get better with every game, so the deeper he plays into March, the more he will likely show scouts.
Prediction
Last year, Myles Turner went 11th in draft despite not having great numbers in his one year at Texas—he averaged 10.1 points and 6.5 rebounds per game. The Indiana Pacers took a chance on Turner because he was a shot-blocker with a jump shot, and so far, that is looking like a smart pick.
Zimmerman could sneak into the late lottery for similar reasons. He's not as good a shot-blocker as Turner and isn't as long either—Turner has a 7'4" wingspan and 9'3" standing reach, compared to 7'3" and 9'1" for Zimmerman, per DraftExpress.com—but Zimmerman has similar potential as a shooter.
It's going to take a team willing to make that leap of faith with him, and I'm not sure he's quite as intriguing as Turner was last year. I also get the sense from scouts that there are more skeptics with Zimmerman than there were with Turner. That said, this is a weaker draft class, and it wouldn't be hard for a team to talk itself into reaching for Zimmerman.
He'll likely end up going in the 15-20 range if he declares this year. It could take until his third year in the league before the payoff comes, but if he gets stronger, there's a lot to like about what Zimmerman can bring to the table.
C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.
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