MLB Franchises on the Verge of Becoming Perennial Playoff Contenders
There's no mistaking the powers that be in Major League Baseball. The Kansas City Royals, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals have done a lot of winning recently, and now the Chicago Cubs, New York Mets and Houston Astros look ready to follow their fine examples.
Eh, but enough about them. Let's act like we can read the future and pinpoint the teams that are on the verge of breaking into the Annual Playoff Contenders Club.
To do so, we'll disregard teams that made the playoffs in 2015 and zero in on clubs that have enough talent to break through sometime within the next, say, three years. Once they do break through, these teams figure to be sticking around for a while.
By my reckoning, that gives us a list of six teams to to discuss. We'll do that in alphabetical order, starting with...
Arizona Diamondbacks
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The Arizona Diamondbacks quietly looked the part of a rising power throughout 2015, responding to largely indifferent expectations with a halfway-decent 79-83 record.
This was mainly thanks to a young, multi-talented lineup. Led by the amazing A.J. Pollock-Paul Goldschmidt duo and a cast of supporting characters that also included sweet-swinging outfielder David Peralta, the Diamondbacks were one of the best offensive and defensive teams in the National League.
“Our core group of guys really put on a good display of baseball,” Arizona general manager Dave Stewart said earlier this winter, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. “Quite frankly, we think that it’s time to try to take it to the next level.”
To do that, Stewart targeted the one thing the Diamondbacks were missing in 2015: pitching.
Stewart dropped over $200 million to sign ace right-hander Zack Greinke away from the Dodgers. And though they had to sell the farm to get him, the Diamondacks also landed another ace-caliber righty in Shelby Miller. With now-healthy left-hander Patrick Corbin in the No. 3 slot, the Diamondbacks have one of the better starting trios in the league.
Of course, this doesn't mean the Diamondbacks don't have nits to pick heading into 2016.
There's not much depth beneath their star pitchers, and that's where they could end up regretting trading Chase Anderson and two well-regarded prospects, Touki Toussaint and Aaron Blair, in recent months. With Ender Inciarte and Dansby Swanson, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 draft, also gone, the Diamondbacks will need Yasmany Tomas to live up to his potential and for Jean Segura to make good with Arizona's upside play on him.
But who knows? Maybe Tomas and Segura will live up to the club's hopes and dreams. And though the Diamondbacks don't have as many pitching prospects as they once had, Braden Shipley and Archie Bradley are two MLB.com top-100 guys who could break through this year.
And in the longer run, don't underestimate the Diamondbacks' ability to compete with the Dodgers and Giants financially. They showed with the Greinke signing that they aren't afraid to put their new $1.5 billion TV deal to use on the free-agent market, and even that only bumped their projected 2016 payroll up to about $95 million. They should be able to go a bit higher than that.
You can be forgiven if you don't look at Arizona and see a team that's an ironclad contender right now. But at the least, you should see a team that's trending in that direction.
Atlanta Braves
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The Atlanta Braves were pretty terrible in 2015, losing 95 games and failing to do anything well. And if you can stomach a minor spoiler, 2016 will probably be more of the same.
But here's another spoiler: Watch out for the Braves in 2017.
Hopeless though their chances of contending in 2016 may be, the Braves are not without talented pieces at the major league level. Freddie Freeman and Julio Teheran are still around, and the Braves added another solid cornerstone piece when they sent Miller to Arizona for Inciarte.
Elsewhere on Atlanta's major league roster is a whole host of players who were recently top prospects, most notably right-handers Matt Wisler, Mike Foltynewicz and Arodys Vizcaino. And speaking of top prospects, there are many more of those on the way.
As we discussed in depth recently, the Braves have added a crud-ton of young talent in the many trades they've made since last winter. Probably the most notable entry on the list is Swanson, who checked in as MLB.com's No. 8 prospect. The young shortstop should be ready to break through by 2017. The same is true of Blair, a fellow former D-Back, and left-hander Sean Newcomb.
Those are three of the five prospects the Braves have in MLB.com's top 100. Braves general manager John Coppolella makes the argument that he's sitting on the best system in the game.
"I've done prospects stuff for close to the 20 years I've been in the game. I thought [our farm system] was really close with Boston at the start of the offseason," Coppolella said in December, per Fox Sports' Zach Dillard. "Boston traded away four of their prospects. We added two more with Newcomb and Ellis. I might be biased, obviously, but I feel we do."
Now, if the Braves were to choose to build a contender strictly by filtering their prospects into the majors, their rise to contention would probably take some time. But that may not be their plan.
Atlanta does have to worry about drawing a crowd when they move into their new stadium next season, after all. Braves CEO Terry McGuirk told Phil W. Hudson of the Atlanta Business Chronicle in November that the club plans on boosting its payroll once it gets into its new stadium. That could involve not only being active in free agency, but also trading some prospects for established stars.
The Braves may well be in the middle of one of the quickest rebuilds you could imagine.
Boston Red Sox
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If there's an obvious choice on this list, well, here it is. The Boston Red Sox may be entering 2016 fresh off a second straight last-place finish in the AL East, but it's hard to ignore how loaded they are.
That's partially due to an active offseason that netted them ace left-hander David Price and shutdown relievers Craig Kimbrel and Carson Smith. With the three of them in tow, Boston's pitching should be much, much better than it was in 2015.
The Red Sox certainly have more veteran talent beyond those three. David Ortiz is still a dangerous hitter going into his final season. Dustin Pedroia should be good, if he can stay healthy, and the Red Sox have reasons to expect Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez to bounce back from a miserable 2015.
It's Boston's youth, however, that's the biggest reason to get excited.
According to FanGraphs, only the Cubs got more wins above replacement out of 25-and-under position players than the Red Sox did in 2015. That was mainly thanks to Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts, who look like budding superstars. Blake Swihart and Jackie Bradley Jr. also contributed.
“You look back on 2015, our young players are the ones that carried this team, to the extent that they did and we’re going to continue to build around them,” Red Sox skipper John Farrell said recently, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe.
It's not all about the bats. Hard-throwing lefty Eduardo Rodriguez showed a ton of potential in what was only his age-22 season in 2015. Beneath him on Boston's depth chart are fellow lefties Henry Owens and Brian Johnson, who were top-100 prospects going into 2015.
And the Red Sox aren't running out of talented prospects. MLB.com puts four Red Sox prospects not just in its top 100, but in its top 40. The best is Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada, who is described as "Robinson Cano with more speed." He's only 20 years old and could play wherever the Red Sox need him, when he's ready.
As of now, FanGraphs actually has the Red Sox projected as the American League's best team going into 2016. They certainly have the talent to make good on that projection, and their prospect depth and spending power should ensure that the club's rise to power won't be a one-year thing.
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Cleveland Indians
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Granted, the Cleveland Indians are the only team on this list that's experienced its share of success in recent seasons. They went to the playoffs in 2013 and finished over .500 in 2014 and 2015.
They're here, though, because their best days could be ahead of them.
It's easy to look at the AL Central and notice the Royals and Detroit Tigers before noticing the Indians, but FanGraphs actually pegs the Tribe as the best team in the division going into 2016. Certainly, one big advantage they have is their starting pitching trio of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar—the three of whom are also locked up through at least 2020.
"In terms of starting pitching, we're about as healthy as you can get for where we are with our payroll and all of that," Indians manager Terry Francona said recently, per Terry Pluto of the Plain Dealer. "A guy can come into spring training and hurt his elbow or something...you can get pinned back pretty quick. But we're in a good situation."
The Indians have other core pieces in addition to their awesome Kluber-Carrasco-Salazar trio. Jason Kipnis and 2015 AL Rookie of the Year contender Francisco Lindor are one of the league's top double-play combinations. A healthy Michael Brantley would once again be among the game's top hitters, and Yan Gomes is one of the AL's more dependable catchers.
The only weakness that stands out when looking at the Tribe is its outfield depth. But while that'll be tough to fix in 2016, 2017 could be a different story. MLB.com rates Bradley Zimmer and Clint Frazier as two of the game's 30 best prospects and projects that both will be ready by 2017.
Also in Cleveland's farm system is left-hander Brady Aiken, the No. 17 overall pick in the 2015 draft. If he recovers well enough from Tommy John surgery, he may regain the talent that made him the No. 1 overall pick in 2014.
Two more names to keep an eye on are a couple of former first-rounders: left-hander Justus Sheffield and outfielder Tyler Naquin. And should Carlos Santana walk after 2017, first base prospect Bobby Bradley (No. 93 on MLB.com's list) could be ready to take over.
All the young talent the Indians have beneath the major league level should only help them bolster their standing within the AL Central. And with the Tigers getting older and the Royals getting more expensive, it may not be long before they have the division all to themselves.
There is one team that might have something to say about that, though...
Minnesota Twins
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The Minnesota Twins were arguably the most surprising contender of 2015, as they stayed in it to the bitter end en route to a solid 83-79 record.
Admittedly, the Twins may have a hard time doing that again in 2016. FanGraphs' projections have them finishing under .500 and in last place in the AL Central, which looks deeper than it was in 2015.
But sort of like with the Diamondbacks in the NL West, the Twins are a team that will almost certainly be dangerous later if not sooner.
The Twins were a consistent offensive team down the stretch in 2015, and that may have only been a tease of what's to come. Brian Dozier is a solid source of right-handed power, and the Twins have two potentially huge sources of right-handed power in Miguel Sano and Korean import Byung-Ho Park. Eddie Rosario and Eduardo Escobar, meanwhile, are solid two-way players.
And now, it's time for an excellent two-way player to earn his stripes. The Twins have all but handed top prospect Byron Buxton their center field job, and they have every right to have high hopes. He's MLB.com's No. 2 prospect, and MLB.com's Jim Callis says Buxton has a package of tools reminiscent of the best player in the league.
"Veteran scouts said [Mike] Trout had the best combination of tools they had seen in years," writes Callis. "Now they're saying that Buxton has the best combo since Trout."
Buxton may be the biggest, but he's not the only Twins prospect who could make an impact in 2016. Also on the radar are right-hander Jose Berrios and outfielder Max Kepler, who check in at No. 19 and No. 44, respectively, on MLB.com's rankings. After them, the Twins have three more prospects in the top 100.
“We’re very excited about our young talent and what they can provide now and in the future,” Twins general manager Terry Ryan told John Perrotto of USA Today. “I really like the balance of the roster in the fact that we not only have young players but some young veterans, and even our veterans who have been [around] for a while are still at an age where you would expect them to continue to be productive.”
Because the Twins are less of a finished product than the Indians are now, it could take a bit longer for them to rise to the top of the AL Central. But after somewhat of a lengthy rebuild, that possibility is indeed nearly ready to be realized.
Philadelphia Phillies
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The Philadelphia Phillies waited too long to rebuild, and their punishment was three straight seasons of utter ineptitude. Most recently, they lost an MLB-high 99 games in 2015.
But as ugly as 2015 was, at least the Phillies started filtering in some young talent. Odubel Herrera made waves with a strong two-way performance in center field, and third baseman Maikel Franco and right-hander Aaron Nola flashed their potential as well. It's not much, but those three are a start.
Fortunately, there's much more young talent on the way. The Phillies put seven prospects in MLB.com's top 100, with top shortstop J.P. Crawford leading the way at No. 5. He's an all-around talent who has a chance to join MLB's young shortstop revolution as soon as this season.
Right-handers Jake Thompson and Mark Appel are also candidates to arrive in the majors this year, as is outfielder Nick Williams. It's also worth noting that Appel arrived in the Ken Giles trade alongside fellow right-hander Vincent Velasquez, who was a top-100 prospect just last year.
"I'm really pleased," Phillies chairman David Montgomery said this week, per Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. "I think we're in great hands. I really do. My little commercial would be that we're going to have a very interesting 2016. And I think with the work we're doing, the future will turn pretty quickly."
But though the Phillies will attempt to build their new empire on homegrown talent, let's not forget that they also have the goods to be one of MLB's biggest spenders.
The club's payroll has approached $200 million in the past, but now the Phillies have virtually no guaranteed dollars on their books beyond 2017. Between that and the $2.5 billion TV contract they signed not too long ago, they'll soon be in a position to surround their current crop with more established, more expensive stars.
By the time the Phillies do that, they should have the attention of the Mets and Washington Nationals in the NL East.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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