Odds for the 2016 NCAA Tournament No. 1 Seeds: Handicapping the Field

It's fun to argue about AP polls and who would be the No. 1 seeds if the season ended today, but here we're placing odds on whether highly ranked teams such as Oklahoma, North Carolina and Villanova will actually be on the top line on Selection Sunday.

Unlike mock brackets that merely consider what has happened thus far, we're also looking ahead to what could/should happen over the next few weeks to project who the No. 1 seeds will ultimately be on Selection Sunday. Thus, this isn't simply a ranking of the 10 best resumes in the country but rather what might be the 10 best resumes in mid-March.

With that in mind, is Oklahoma already a stone-cold lock for a No. 1 seed? If the Sooners aren't at 100 percent, where are they? And would you believe that Oregon is one of the teams most legitimately in the running for a No. 1 seed?

Odds on the following slides are fictitious, but they're carefully calculated. They add up to 381.8 out of a maximum 400 percent, meaning that a bet on the field has odds of 9-2 (18.2 percent).

Ratings percentage index (RPI) and strength of schedule (SOS) as calculated by ESPN and KenPom.com (KP) ratings were used in conjunction with the eye test to determine the most deserving teams. Past performance comprised roughly 75 percent of the thought process, but remaining schedule was also a strong contributing factor.

Honorable Mentions

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Gaudy Record, Poor Nonconference SOS

Miami, Michigan State, Purdue

In the past five years, there has not been a No. 1 seed with a nonconference strength of schedule that ranked outside the top 100. In fact, the only team during that stretch to earn a No. 1 seed while ranked outside the top 88 in NCSOS was Kentucky (100) in 2012, and though these are good teams, they most certainly are not 2012 Kentucky.

These ranks will fluctuate slightly between now and the end of the season, but Miami (111), Purdue (113) and Michigan State (117) faced nonconference schedules that aren't quite on par with what is expected from a No. 1 seed.

Big 12's Third-Best Candidate

West Virginia

If a team is going to get a No. 1 seed with a horrible nonconference SOS, it's West Virginia (172), because the Mountaineers have not lost to a team outside the RPI Top 25 and still have a metric ton of opportunities remaining in Big 12 play.

I certainly don't foresee this happening, but if they were to run the table from this point forward, we're talking about a four-loss team with roughly 17 RPI Top 100 wins and a sweep of the Big 12 regular season and conference tournament titles. That's a No. 1 seed resume all day, every day.

The Dark Horse

Dayton

Because we just fussed over the NCSOS of other teams from major conferences, let's do the same with Dayton, which ranks fourth in the nation in that category.

Atlantic 10 play will do the Flyers no favors, and the early January loss to La Salle is by far the worst one suffered by any team under consideration for a No. 1 seed. However, their blind resume (RPI: 13, SOS: 40, NCSOS: 4, 1-1 vs. RPI Top 25, 4-1 vs. RPI Top 50, 10-2 vs. RPI Top 100) stacks up well with others in our top 10.

It's not particularly likely, but if there is a non-major to follow in the footsteps of Gonzaga in 2013 and Wichita State in 2014, it has to be Dayton.

The Extremely Dark Horse

Duke

With Oklahoma the only team even remotely locked into a No. 1 seed right now, a lot of teams could realistically end up on the top line if they don't lose another game, but this is the most high-profile one to consider.

As the resume currently stands, Duke is a No. 7 seed, at best. And based on how the Blue Devils have played over the past few weeks, only a simpleton would assume they're about to win a dozen games in a row.

Should they pull it off, though, it would include a season sweep of both North Carolina and Louisville, a home win over Virginia and whatever comes their way in the ACC tournament—probably two more RPI Top 25 victories. They do have six losses but nothing worse than a road loss to Clemson—and, really, who doesn't have one of those in ACC play?

The more likely scenario is that they lose at least three of their five remaining marquee games to place themselves squarely on the bubble, but a No. 1 seed is still within the realm of mathematical possibility.

10. Texas A&M Aggies

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By the Numbers: 18-3; RPI: 12; KP: 8; SOS: 63

Three Best Wins: 72-62 vs. Iowa State; 80-61 vs. Baylor; 84-73 vs. Texas

Losses: 67-54 @ Arizona State; 74-67 vs. Syracuse; 74-71 @ Arkansas

Odds of No. 1 Seed: 6-1 (14.3 percent chance)

I love Texas A&M's chances of making a deep run in the tournament, but I'm not enamored with the possibility of that run beginning against a No. 16 seed.

Two of the Aggies' losses were to teams that already have a double-digit number in the loss column, and the third came against a Syracuse team that may or may not sneak into the NCAA tournament. None of the losses is particularly awful, but they're certainly ugly compared to the much more forgivable losses suffered by the likes of Oklahoma, Iowa, Xavier, Villanova and Maryland.

The bigger problem, however, is the limited quantity of marquee wins and the inability to get many more.

Thus far, all the Aggies have really done is win home games against Big 12 teams, and if beating Iowa State, Baylor, Texas and Kansas State is enough for a No. 1 seed, wouldn't those spots go to Oklahoma and Kansas before they go to Texas A&M?

And as far as future returns are concerned, the Aggies do not play road games against Kentucky, Florida or South Carolina, meaning their best possible road win will come against either Alabama or LSU, which isn't saying much.

On the bright side, this means Texas A&M has a reasonable shot at winning all of its remaining games. And even though the schedule isn't particularly daunting, 31-3 against this slate with only one loss since the first week of December would likely be enough for a spot on the top line.

But anything less than that probably wouldn't do the trick. While a loss to Kentucky or Vanderbilt would be forgivable, the Aggies need every quality win they can get.

9. Maryland Terrapins

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By the Numbers: 19-3; RPI: 7; KP: 9; SOS: 36

Three Best Wins: 74-68 vs. Iowa; 76-66 vs. Connecticut; 63-60 @ Wisconsin

Losses: 70-67 @ Michigan; 74-65 @ Michigan State; 89-81 @ North Carolina

Odds of No. 1 Seed: 11-2 (15.4 percent chance)

Every other team in our top 10 has at least four RPI Top 50 wins.

Maryland?

Just one.

Despite being ranked No. 4 in the nation in this week's AP Top 25, that's precisely why the Terrapins only have an outside shot at a No. 1 seed.

The good news is the rest of the computer numbers look good, and they don't have anything resembling an ugly loss. Thus, if they can pick up a good number of RPI Top 50 wins down the stretch, they should be right there in the mix with one of the best resumes in the country.

However, even in the Big Ten, Maryland doesn't have many more opportunities. The Terps will get Purdue and Michigan at home as well as Indiana and Purdue on the road, but that's it until the latter stages of the Big Ten tournament.

With games remaining against Nebraska, Illinois, Minnesota and D-II Bowie State—are you serious, Maryland?—the Terrapins could run the table from this point forward and still only end up with around six RPI Top 50 wins.

But if they win both the Big Ten regular season and conference tournament titles, they have to be a No. 1 seed, right?

Like Texas A&M, Maryland's margin for error is pretty much nil, but this team has enough talent to not lose another game until next season.

8. Villanova Wildcats

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By the Numbers: 18-3; RPI: 2; KP: 3; SOS: 6

Three Best Wins: 95-64 vs. Xavier; 72-71 @ Seton Hall; 86-72 @ Saint Joseph's

Losses: 82-76 vs. Providence; 86-75 @ Virginia; 78-55 vs. Oklahoma

Odds of No. 1 Seed: 9-2 (18.2 percent chance)

By far, the biggest thing working in Villanova's favor is a lack of bad losses. One would hope the Wildcats could have won the home game against Providence, but the Friars are in the RPI Top 25, and Virginia and Oklahoma are both comfortably in the RPI Top 10. Certainly, no harm done there.

However, Villanova is just 1-3 versus RPI Top 25 and 4-3 versus RPI Top 50 with only two more chances during the regular season (at Providence, at Xavier) to add to that list.

And who's to say that Seton Hall (RPI: 44) will still be in that group come Selection Sunday?

Villanova's pair of wins over the Pirates looks good right now, but with two games against Georgetown and one against Butler in the next two weeks, that could change in a hurry. If Seton Hall drops to 51 or worse and the Wildcats split those games against Providence and Xavier, they would enter the Big East tournament with a 3-4 record versus RPI Top 50, which is definitely not No. 1 seed material.

Granted, Villanova's one marquee win was darn phenomenal—a 31-point win over Xavier on New Year's Eve—but unless/until the Wildcats win at least one of those two remaining road challenges, that win sure looks lonely. Even worse, it comes with the asterisk of Xavier losing Edmond Sumner to a scary injury just two minutes into the game.

Add it all up and Villanova cannot afford to lose another game if it wants a No. 1 seed. Though a road loss to the Friars or Musketeers would be forgivable, the Wildcats need those wins to prove that they can beat quality opponents on the road. And a loss anywhere else on the schedule would go down as a bad one, thus killing the biggest thing working in their favor.

A 12-1 finish with a loss at Xavier followed by a rubber match win over Xavier in the Big East championship game might do the trick—particularly if Seton Hall can stay in the RPI Top 50—but that's probably the only scenario involving at least one more loss that results in a second straight No. 1 seed for Villanova.

7. Oregon Ducks

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By the Numbers: 18-4; RPI: 3; KP: 16; SOS: 4

Three Best Wins: 83-75 @ Arizona; 74-67 vs. Baylor; 73-67 vs. Valparaiso

Losses: 74-72 @ Boise State; 80-69 vs. UNLV; 70-57 @ Oregon State; 91-87 @ Colorado

Odds of No. 1 Seed: 4-1 (20 percent chance)

Oregon's computer resume is fantastic. In the top five in both RPI and SOS with three RPI Top 25 wins and 12 RPI Top 100 wins, one could realistically make the case for the Ducks to be on the No. 1 seed line right now.

However, all four of their losses were less than ideal, and I can't help but get a whiff of 2013 New Mexico from this resume.

If you'll recall, that was the year that the Lobos were the headliner for an abnormally strong Mountain West Conference. The nine-team MWC sent five teams to the NCAA tournament, thanks in large part to eight of those nine teams posting a nonconference RPI rank of 70 or better.

Even though most people never felt like any of those teams had much of a shot at reaching the Final Four, they just kept passing quality wins around in a circle until New Mexico entered Selection Sunday ranked second in the nation in both RPI and SOS.

Sounds a lot like this year's Pac-12, doesn't it?

New Mexico merely ended up with a No. 3 seed, but two major differences should work in Oregon's favor.

The first is the obvious major conference factor. Even though it hasn't produced a Final Four team since 2008, the Pac-12 has a drastically better reputation than the MWC. At any rate, if the Ducks can win the Pac-12 by a two-game margin, it would carry much more weight than New Mexico's two-game cushion in the MWC three years ago.

Second, all 12 Pac-12 teams have a nonconference RPI rank of 65 or better, and Washington State is the only one that currently has an RPI rank outside of the top 70. Oregon could realistically have at least 20 RPI Top 100 wins by the time Selection Sunday arrives.

The Ducks do still have road games remaining against California, Stanford, UCLA and USC, but challenges are better than cupcakes when trying to stake a claim to a No. 1 seed. If Oregon can finish the regular season with seven wins in nine games before proceeding to win the Pac-12 tournament, it should be firmly in the mix for a spot on the top line.

6. North Carolina Tar Heels

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By the Numbers: 19-3; RPI: 9; KP: 4; SOS: 55

Three Best Wins: 89-81 vs. Maryland; 84-73 @ Syracuse; 106-90 @ Florida State

Losses: 71-67 @ Northern Iowa; 84-82 @ Texas; 71-65 @ Louisville

Odds of No. 1 Seed: 5-2 (28.6 percent chance)

In the interest of full disclosure, even if they had beaten Louisville, the Tar Heels would have only been No. 5 on our list. Though they were almost unanimously a Top Two team among AP voters on Monday afternoon, that was mostly a product of the fact that they haven't lost in seven weeks.

They have a nice tournament resume (19-3 overall, 11-2 vs. RPI Top 100, projected ACC champ), but their case for a No. 1 seed isn't all that strong.

Aside from a home win over Maryland two months ago, North Carolina is winless against the RPI Top 35, and that lone marquee win over the Terrapins is pretty much erased by the awful loss to Northern Iowa. The Tar Heels have a nonconference strength of schedule rank of 78 and lost both of the true road games they played during that portion of the season.

The past is the past, though, and the near future is where North Carolina can really stake its claim to a spot on the top line.

If the Tar Heels truly are one of the five best teams in the country, they should be able to win their next five games (at Notre Dame, at Boston College, vs. Pitt, vs. Duke, vs. Miami) to buttress their case for a No. 1 seed. Though they're a bit light in quality wins at the moment, they could have a total of eight RPI Top 50 wins less than three weeks from now.

However, the big game comes on Feb. 27 at Virginia, because the Cavaliers already have eight RPI Top 50 wins and a better overall resume, despite sitting two games behind the Tar Heels in the ACC standings.

Even if it doesn't decide who wins the conference, that game could be something of a tiebreaker for a No. 1 seed, provided UNC is still in the running for one by the time the game begins.

5. Kansas Jayhawks

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By the Numbers: 16-4; RPI: 4; KP: 15; SOS: 5

Three Best Wins: 109-106 vs. Oklahoma; 90-84 vs. Kentucky; 102-74 vs. Baylor

Losses: 86-67 @ Oklahoma State; 74-63 @ West Virginia; 85-72 @ Iowa State; 79-73 vs. Michigan State

Odds of No. 1 Seed: 3-2 (40 percent chance)

The past few weeks have not been great for Kansas' shot at a No. 1 seed.

In early January, the Jayhawks were the team to beat. They were 14-1 with quality wins over Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, UCLA, San Diego State and Oregon State and merely a neutral-court loss to another team that was looking likely for a spot on the top line (Michigan State).

Since then, though, they're 3-3. All three losses came by a double-digit margin, and they were trailing at home in the second half in two of the three wins.

Fortunately, RPI couldn't care less about margin of defeat or how rocky the road to victory was, but that does explain the sizable difference between their RPI and KP ranks.

It has been a tale of two seasons for Kansas, but the net result is four RPI Top 25 wins, 10 RPI Top 100 wins and only one loss (at Oklahoma State) that isn't completely understandable. And though the Jayhawks have already played three of the four toughest games the Big 12 has to offer them (at Iowa State, at West Virginia, vs. Oklahoma), there are still plenty of opportunities remaining for more quality wins.

It's a bit unlikely that they'll win the rematch at Oklahoma, but every other game left on the schedule is winnable. If they can go 8-2 from this point forward (with one loss at Oklahoma and the other at Baylor or Texas), the Jayhawks would be in great position for a NCAA tournament No. 1 seed at the outset of the Big 12 tournament.

It might not quite be enough to extend their streak of 11 consecutive Big 12 regular-season titles—do you really think Oklahoma is going to lose three more conference games?—but if any conference is going to put two teams on the top line, it's easy to like the Big 12's chances of doing it.

4. Virginia Cavaliers

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By the Numbers: 17-4; RPI: 6; KP: 5; SOS: 24

Three Best Wins: 86-75 vs. Villanova; 63-47 @ Louisville; 70-54 vs. West Virginia

Losses: 70-68 @ Virginia Tech; 73-68 @ George Washington; 68-64 @ Georgia Tech; 69-62 @ Florida State

Odds of No. 1 Seed: 5-4 (44.4 percent chance)

The loss to Virginia Tech was brutal.

The loss to George Washington hasn't exactly gotten better with the Colonials subsequently dropping games to DePaul and Saint Louis.

Frankly, none of Virginia's losses is all that forgivable. If falling at Florida State is a team's worst loss, OK. Tough road losses in conference sometimes happen. But that's Virginia's fourth-worst loss of the season. In most years, a couple of No. 1 seeds don't even lose four games, let alone four games this bad.

And yet, the Cavaliers are one of the safest bets to end up on the top line.

That's because they are No. 1 in the nation in RPI Top 25 wins (four), RPI Top 50 wins (eight) and RPI Top 100 wins (12).

Saturday's (dominant) win at Louisville was critical, as it was Virginia's first true road win over a team in the RPI Top 75. Now that the Cavaliers have that monkey off their back, they should feel more comfortable in upcoming road games against Pitt, Duke and Miami. They also still have high-profile home games against North Carolina and Louisville in the final 10 days of the regular season.

If they can go 3-2 in those games and win the other four considerably less challenging games left on their slate, they would enter the ACC tournament with an 11-3 record versus RPI Top 50 and roughly 17 RPI Top 100 wins. Considering they got a No. 1 seed two years ago with a 5-4 record versus RPI Top 50 and only 13 RPI Top 100 wins, that sounds pretty good.

However, Virginia only had one ugly loss in 2013-14, and it won both the ACC regular-season and conference tournament titles. Thus, the Cavaliers would need to do at least a little bit of damage in the ACC tournament in order to enhance the argument for a No. 1 seed.

But the bottom line is they can probably afford to lose at least two more games and still be in great shape. No one else that we've encountered thus far on the list can say that.

3. Iowa Hawkeyes

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By the Numbers: 17-4; RPI: 8; KP: 2; SOS: 7

Three Best Wins: 83-70 @ Michigan State; 70-63 @ Purdue; 76-59 vs. Michigan State

Losses: 82-77 vs. Dayton; 68-62 vs. Notre Dame; 83-82 @ Iowa State; 74-68 @ Maryland

Odds of No. 1 Seed: 1-1 (50 percent chance)

Iowa has a unique resume. It's 0-3 against teams in the RPI Top 20 and 7-4 against teams in the RPI Top 40 and has not played another game against a team in the RPI Top 100.

The season sweeps of Michigan State and Purdue are fantastic. And because the Hawkeyes have already played all of their games against those two teams and Maryland, their remaining schedule is probably the weakest of any team under consideration for a No. 1 seed.

As long as they don't get swept by the Hoosiers, the Hawkeyes will likely finish in sole possession of first place in the Big Ten standings. There have been nine undisputed Big Ten champions in the past 11 years, resulting in five No. 1 seeds, three No. 2 seeds and one No. 3 seed. So, that bodes well for Iowa, especially in a season devoid of elite teams.

The big question here is the nonconference strength of schedule, which currently ranks 80th in the nation. Iowa went just 2-3 versus the RPI Top 100 during the nonconference portion of the season. And as far as those two wins are concerned, one came against Wichita State while it was without Fred VanVleet, and the other was a home game against Florida State that required overtime.

Again, the sweeps of Michigan State and Purdue are great, but what did Iowa really do before that four-week hot streak? And what can it possibly do with its weak remaining schedule to further bolster what it has done thus far?

If they win every remaining regular-season game—which they should—the Hawkeyes will absolutely be a No. 1 seed. But given how long it took for most of the nation to buy into this team as a legit contender, it might only take one misstep down the stretch to put that No. 1 seed in jeopardy—especially if Iowa also fails to win the Big Ten tournament.

2. Xavier Musketeers

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By the Numbers: 19-2; RPI: 5; KP: 11; SOS: 39

Three Best Wins: 75-68 @ Providence; 87-77 vs. USC; 86-70 @ Michigan

Losses: 81-72 vs. Georgetown; 95-64 @ Villanova

Odds of No. 1 Seed: 2-3 (60 percent chance)

Xavier has all of the pieces that we look for in a No. 1 seed: Top 10 RPI rank, no bad losses, minimal number of losses, multiple RPI Top 25 wins (three) and a hefty amount of RPI Top 100 wins (10).

The Musketeers don't have a particularly great strength of schedule, though I'm not sure why. They went 5-0 away from home against RPI Top 100 teams during the nonconference portion of the season, including destroying Dayton in the Advocare Invitational championship game and stomping Michigan on its home court.

Really, the only "bad" thing that Xavier did this season was lose a home game to Georgetown, but the Hoyas have rebounded nicely from their horrendous nonconference losses and just might be able to sneak into the NCAA tournament.

If they're able to get that assist from their Big East foe, the Musketeers would be in great shape for a spot on the top line, provided, of course, that they can avoid falling apart down the stretch.

As far as KenPom is concerned, Xavier should be favored in each of its remaining nine games. However, five of those games (at Creighton, at Butler, at Georgetown, vs. Villanova, at Seton Hall) are only slightly better than coin flips with win probabilities in the 51-60 percent range.

Fortunately, the Musketeers have some wiggle room. Even if they lose to desperate-for-a-marquee-win Butler and lose the rematch against Villanova before winning the Big East tournament, that would put them at 30-4 with around 10 RPI Top 50 wins and roughly 20 RPI Top 125 wins.

If you don't think that's enough for a No. 1 seed this season, I implore you to find four better resumes on Selection Sunday.

1. Oklahoma Sooners

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By the Numbers: 19-2; RPI: 1; KP: 1; SOS: 12

Three Best Wins: 78-55 vs. Villanova; 82-72 @ Baylor; 87-83 vs. Iowa State

Losses: 82-77 @ Iowa State; 109-106 @ Kansas

Odds of No. 1 Seed: 1-10 (90.9 percent chance)

Oklahoma isn't nearly as good as Kentucky was last year, but the Sooners might be even further ahead of the pack right now than the Wildcats were midway through conference play in 2015.

Around this time last year, Virginia was still undefeated, Gonzaga was playing its best basketball in school history, and Duke and Wisconsin weren't far behind as title favorites who stumbled a little bit early in conference play. Even though Kentucky was undefeated and almost unanimously considered the favorite for the national championship, four teams were hot on its tail.

Can you name four teams that you can possibly see finishing ahead of Oklahoma this year?

What little argument there was for North Carolina certainly went down the drain with Monday's loss to Louisville. Perhaps one of the Big East teams (Villanova or Xavier) can put together a gaudy enough win total to compete with the Sooners, but it's unlikely they would have the necessary quality wins to stack up in the computer resumes.

Virginia and Kansas probably have the best chances, but the former still has five difficult games before the ACC tournament even begins, and the latter would have to actually win at Oklahoma next weekend to have a legitimate argument.

With nine regular-season games remaining, the Sooners aren't a lock for a No. 1 seed. One bad week could make things dicey, let alone one bad month with a couple of injuries.

But so long as they stay healthy, it's difficult to see that happening.

Their two losses are just about the two most forgivable losses in the country—as evidenced by the fact that they didn't drop a single spot in the AP Top 25 after either one occurred. Outside of the road game against West Virginia and maybe the road game against Texas, the Sooners should be the overwhelming favorite to win each of their remaining regular-season games.

KenPom currently projects Oklahoma to win the Big 12—easily the nation's best conference—by a two-game margin. Should that happen, the Sooners could probably lose their first game in the Big 12 tournament and still be in the conversation for the No. 1 overall seed.

Computer ratings current through start of play on Tuesday, February 2. Win-loss records current through start of play on Wednesday, February 3.

Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.