2016 NBA Draft Prospects Blowing Expectations Out of the Water
Every year we see NCAA players unexpectedly evolve into exciting NBA prospects.
It happened last season with freshmen D'Angelo Russell, Trey Lyles and Devin Booker—three lottery picks who entered their first college seasons off the 2015 draft radar. Cameron Payne practically came out of nowhere before soaring up boards during conference play.
We've already seen a handful of prospects make similar surprise leaps this season, including two seniors competing for National Player of the Year honors.
I'd even peg one of the following five prospects as potentially the biggest one-and-done sleeper in the country.
Had you asked NBA evaluators about these particular prospects just a few months ago, you wouldn't have heard praise as surefire first-round talents. Now, each one of these players may have a shot at cracking the 2016 lottery.
Buddy Hield (Oklahoma, SG, Senior)
Projection Entering the Year: Late first to second round
Current Projection: Lottery
Hield chose to return as a senior after a productive but unconvincing junior season.
"From what I got from the committee [NBA Undergraduate Advisory Committee], I need to improve my ball-handling and how to create a shot," Hield told the Tulsa World's Patrick Prince at the time he announced his decision to return. "It's kind of embarrassing for me because I'm always in the gym, but I never really work on my ball-handling. I always work on my shooting."
Hield apparently took the feedback seriously. He's sharpened both his handle and shot creation and taken his shooting to a whole other level. He has gone from a fringe top-30 option to one of the most NBA-ready prospects in the country, according to a handful of scouts I polled.
Hield recently erupted for his eighth 30-point game of the season against LSU on Saturday and is now averaging 26.2 points on the year. He is having arguably the most impressive shooting campaign in recent memory, as he's on pace to become the only college player since 1995 to average at least four made threes, shoot 50 percent from deep and make 90 percent of his free throws (minimum two games).
His future identity and overall value will no doubt be tied to his jumper. He runs off screens and frees himself up without the ball exceptionally well. Still, 27.7 percent of his threes are unassisted, which highlights his ability to pull up and make shots off his own dribble.
He's become a bigger threat to get to the basket off change of direction, getting to the line 1.6 more times per game and averaging a career-high 2.5 assists.
Hield has managed to become a more complete player while sharpening his strengths, and it will pay major dividends in June. He could be one of the top 10 players drafted—most likely to a team unimpressed with the available 19-year-old projects.
Malik Beasley (Florida State, SG, Freshman)
Projection Entering the Year: Undrafted
Current Projection: Late lottery to late-first round
Entering the season, you didn't hear Beasley's name mentioned with the other projected one-and-done first-round prospects. The bigger, stronger Dwayne Bacon originally looked like the Florida State freshman for scouts to watch. And though Bacon has been impressive, there may actually be more to like about Beasley, who's emerged as the team's leading scorer and one of the most steady teenagers in the country.
He's finished with at least 15 points in 17 of the Seminoles' first 22 games.
At 6'5", Beasley compensates for average 2-guard size with explosive athleticism, which shows up in the open floor and on line drives to the rack.
He's also making 1.7 threes per game at a solid 40.7 percent clip. His 62.9 percent true shooting percentage ranks top-five among freshman guards playing at least 25 minutes per game—and that's after having already faced Iowa, North Carolina, Miami, Virginia and Louisville.
He's actually threatening to join Kyrie Irving and James Harden as the only freshmen (since 1995) to finish a season with a 63 percent true shooting percentage, 40 percent three-point mark and at least 17 points per game.
Beasley still must adjust when the pace slows down, but we've seen flashes of floaters, runners and pull-ups. And though he isn't the most polished one-one-one player, he's consistently found ways to score within the flow of Florida State's offense.
Unless he hits the freshman wall, I'm expecting Beasley to start cruising up draft boards over the next few months.
Timothe Luwawu (France, SG/SF, 1995)
Projection Entering the Year: Late first to second round
Current Projection: Late lottery to mid-first round
Luwawu had actually entered his name in last year's draft before pulling out prior to the deadline. "If the workouts are successful and I have the chance to being picked I will leave my name in the draft," he told French newspaper Nice Matine (via Sportando.com). "Otherwise I will withdraw my name to return next season."
Apparently, Luwawu didn't receive the feedback he'd hoped for.
He'll get it this summer. The 20-year-old Frenchman has officially broken out in the Adriatic League, averaging 15.2 points and 2.9 assists after notching just 7.1 points the previous season in France's second division. And he's fresh off a strong performance (18 points, seven rebounds, four assists, two steals) against Euroleague squad Cedevita with representatives from five NBA teams on hand, according to KK Mega Leks' Twitter account.
Luwawu's ball skills have been catching up to his physical tools and athleticism. A much-improved jumper has been the most notable development—he's hit 49 threes in 22 games on 37.7 percent shooting from deep. Though still streaky, he's certainly strengthened his case as a potential three-and-D wing.
Otherwise, he's flashed some fairly intriguing versatility, between his slashing, shooting, transition game and potential to guard multiple positions. Luwawu now seems like a strong first-round bet and a candidate to find the back end of the lottery.
Denzel Valentine (Michigan State, SG, Senior)
Projection Entering the Year: Second round to undrafted
Current Projection: Mid-first round
Valentine was a key member of Michigan State's 2015 Final Four run, but it never translated to NBA buzz. Many had a hard time getting over his mild explosiveness and quickness.
But improved scoring, playmaking and one of the sweetest shooting strokes in college hoops has helped diminish much of the concern.
As a pro, Valentine won't play point guard, but his 6'5", 220-pound size and versatility should ultimately work well at the 2-guard position. He's making 3.3 threes per game at a 43.2 percent clip after sinking 102 triples a year ago. Valentine has a quick release shooting off screens or curls and has shown he can step into pull-ups, having knocked down 44 percent of his two-point jumpers this season.
With the ball in hand, Valentine can navigate and probe. He's not a traditional ball-handler, but he ranks fifth in the nation with a tremendous 41.5 percent assist percentage. And he's shown excellent vision and facilitating instincts off the dribble.
It's not crazy to think Valentine, who'll turn 23 in November, could attract attention from mid-first-round teams looking to bring in a shot-maker for the 2016-17 season. Though he might not offer considerable upside, the NBA-ready label may hold extra value during what might be a relatively weaker 2016 field.
Wade Baldwin IV (Vanderbilt, PG, Sophomore)
Projection Entering the Year: Second round
Current Projection: Late lottery to late-first round
Baldwin didn't quite crack the draft radar as a freshman, averaging just 12.9 points and 6.1 assists per 40 minutes with Vanderbilt. He's all over it in 2016, however, as he's doing a better job showcasing his immaculate physical profile: 6'3", 194 pounds and a spectacular 6'10" wingspan.
You could argue defense is his most appealing strength. He's tough to blow by or comfortably pass around thanks to a strong frame, quick feet and incredible length.
After making 43.9 percent of his threes a year ago, he's hit 26 of first 56 (46.4 percent) attempts as a sophomore. And though his assist numbers aren't overly impressive, Baldwin is a savvy passer, whether he's whipping the ball crosscourt, leading his post man with an entry lob, finding the roll man off a screen or hitting a backdoor cutter.
Baldwin's offensive potential shines most in the open floor and the drive-and-slash game. He slices through gaps and gets to the free-throw line 8.4 times per 40 minutes.
There are still a number of holes in his game, from finishing at the rim (51.2 percent) to mid-range scoring and decision-making. But Baldwin looks like a guard physically and mentally built to compete at the NBA level. We could be talking about a two-way pro if his skills and feel for the game eventually come around.
All stats courtesy of Sports-Reference.com, Hoop-Math.com or RealGM.com.
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