Why Cardale Jones Shouldn't Be the Forgotten Quarterback of the 2016 Class

Three starts, three wins, a national championship and a flirtation with the NFL draft; from Dec. 6 2014 through Jan. 12 2015, Ohio State quarterback Cardale Jones became the most enigmatic NFL draft prospect in the country.

Between his dominating victory over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game and his eventual announcement that he’d be returning to school, NFL evaluators and media members wrestled with Jones’ NFL draft value.

After an erratic seven-game start to the 2015 season and a midseason benching, the 6’5, 250-pound passer slipped from Cam Newton comparisons to off-the-radar of those covering the draft. While Jared Goff, Paxton Lynch and Carson Wentz have risen, Jones has faded into “Day 3 consideration” talk.

But quarterbacks like Cardale Jones don’t come around often. His positive attitude, arm talent, athleticism and remarkable upside don’t lend themselves to being pushed aside. And despite recent project passers like Jones slipping to Day 3 (Logan Thomas and Brett Hundley), he is a different, misunderstood NFL draft prospect.

Arm Talent vs. Overconfidence

Ohio State vs. Virginia Tech

Jones offers elite arm strength, and he knows it. He’s willing to take chances downfield, finish throws with defenders on him and make 20-plus-yard throws. His arm strength allows him to be late on throws and attempt vertical passes despite not being set, a skill set that excites NFL teams because he can get away with mistakes and turn checkdowns into downfield opportunities.

For example, his off-balance rollout throw against Virginia Tech is a pass that few, if any quarterbacks in college (or the NFL) can make. It’s the type of highlight that has the head coach holding his breath until the referee’s arms signal touchdown.

But that “arm talent overconfidence” is also what gets him into trouble.

Ohio State vs. North Illinois

Some quarterbacks take chances downfield or on the perimeter not only because they have confidence in their arm strength, but also because they trust in their anticipation and reads on defensive alignments. Jones doesn’t fit the “educated gunslinger” mold that Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck and Joe Flacco use their arm strength for.

Jones is simply overconfident in his arm, especially in his velocity control. One of his biggest areas of concern is that he doesn’t yet have a feel for the throws he can make and the ones that he should play with more control and safeness.

Jones can make every throw, but that doesn’t mean he should try. Jones tries to complete passes across the field with poor footwork and limited anticipation of defensive alignments, leading to obvious mistakes.

In many ways, Cardale Jones is similar to a young, erratic NBA player working to determine when to take a shot, and when to run his team’s offense and play under control. In Jones’ case, his big plays and big-time throws weren’t enough to overcome his bouts of poor placement and indecisiveness, and he began to stifle the Ohio State offense enough that they opted for the far more efficient J.T. Barrett. 

The main concern of Jones’s interception totals (five in his first five games of 2015 before Barrett began earning more snaps in relief) is that they stem from not anticipating coverages. Thanks to the Ohio State offense and the weapons at his disposal, Jones has the luxury of routinely having one-on-one matchups and wide-open throwing lanes to show off his arm strength.

When he’s forced to adjust in the pocket and keep his eyes downfield, Jones doesn’t have the refinement needed for NFL evaluators to be confident in a successful NFL transition. As is the case with many Urban Meyer-coached quarterbacks (and ones in similar offenses), Jones seems slow to adjust off his first read and is asked to use his running ability rather than keep his eyes downfield.

Lack of Starting Experience Spurs Optimism

Despite those concerns, one key part of Jones’ scouting report can’t be underappreciated: he’s made just 10 starts in his college career. While a lack of starting experience is a detriment for many quarterback passers, I believe it actually supports Jones’ top-100 draft potential.

Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

Jones’ anticipation and overconfidence concerns don’t appear to be uncorrectable. He merely needs time to work through growing pains with multiple, consistent and confidence-instilling starts. Jones never got that at Ohio State. He entered 2015 not as the unquestioned starter, but with an obvious leash on his job; Meyer even said as much five games into Jones' college starting career. 

As we’ve seen repeatedly at the NFL level, confidence and patience are miracle drugs when trying to get the best version of a team’s starting quarterback. Inflated expectations and a short leash do the exact opposite.

Without making excuses for Jones, it’s apparent that his growth was stunted as the Ohio State quarterback. Between Meyer’s knack for poorly developing NFL quarterbacks to the handling of his collection of top passers, Jones has suffered through one of the most unique quarterback situations in recent college football history.

Underdeveloped vs. Raw

There’s a difference between being underdeveloped as a prospect and being raw. For some NFL draft prospects, a lack of growth despite coaching and starting experience lends itself to a fear that a prospect might never reach the ceiling his athleticism indicates. That’s especially concerning for a prospect like Baylor defensive end Shawn Oakman, who’s seen ample snaps throughout his college career and has seemingly regressed as a prospect.

But Jones is the epitome of raw. His quarterbacking issues are indecisiveness and overconfidence in his arm talent, two things that most quarterbacks work through early in their careers. But Jones hasn’t had the opportunity to do so. His three starts in the team’s national championship run didn’t allow him to let loose as a growing passer, and his 2015 experience didn’t allow him to work through his issues without fear of losing his starting job.

For Jones, his development is the NFL’s job now. While teams should generally lean away from drafting “project passers” early, Jones is still worth selecting highly. His rare arm talent, body type, athleticism and mental makeup could still allow him to spot start in case of a dire need due to injury. 

But more importantly, it's his promise of potential growth that is worth going head over heels for. Few quarterbacks enter the NFL ranks with Jones’ talent level, and he’s truly an untapped resource oozing with potential. Had he landed in a situation like Cam Newton’s Auburn team, Jones might have emerged as the shoo-in for the top overall pick. 

Now, he’ll be available for a mere second- or third-round pick. It’s just a matter of which team is willing to give him the confidence and patience that Urban Meyer never did. And that team won’t be sorry they did.