Conference Rankings Based on Final Four Potential in 2015-16 Season

Last season we could refer to teams like Kentucky, Duke and Wisconsin as Final Four contenders, and hardly anyone would bat an eye.

This year? Well...

The 2015-16 season has been wide-open, with no dominant teams separating themselves from the field. This should make for an entertaining NCAA tournament in which any number of teams could compete for a national title or a spot in the Final Four, but good luck making an accurate guess as to who those teams are right now.

It's a little easier to predict which conferences are likely to be represented at the Final Four in Houston. We've gone ahead and taken a stab at this, comparing the overall strength of a league's best teams against others to see which ones have the most potential.

10. West Coast

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Standard-bearer Gonzaga is having an off year—the product of inexperienced guard play and the loss of center Przemek Karnowski to a back injury. Yet the Bulldogs are still the best bet from the West Coast to make a run to the Final Four if they can get someone from the backcourt to complement forwards Domantas Sabonis and Kyle Wiltjer.

St. Mary's and BYU are the other West Coast Conference teams that have a shot at beating out Gonzaga for the WCC automatic bid, but neither has what it takes to be able to put together a March run.

9. American

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We already know the American's best team won't be able to get the league its second Final Four appearance, since SMU is ineligible for the postseason due to NCAA sanctions. The Mustangs would have been the league's best hope to go deep, but three other teams have the potential if any of them can put it all together for a few weeks.

Cincinnati has won six of seven, its most consistent stretch since the beginning of the season, and that's moved it to 7-3 and tied with Temple for second place in the league. The Bearcats' only loss in that run was at Temple, which has swept the season series but has also lost at East Carolina.

Temple's last six conference games have been decided by nine points or fewer, including what ended up being SMU's first loss of the season last month.

And then there's Connecticut, which is at 6-3 in the conference after Thursday's win at Memphis but hasn't posted an impressive win since beating Texas on the road in December.

8. Missouri Valley

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Wichita State is the only team in the Missouri Valley that can really be considered for the Final Four, but it alone makes a strong case. Coach Gregg Marshall and senior guards Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet have been there before, and the current team is playing as well as any team in the country.

However, the Shockers' chances to make a run will likely come down to how the tournament selection committee seeds them, which could prove tricky based on how their season has unfolded.

VanVleet missed several games earlier in the year due to injury, leading to a 2-4 start and a 5-5 mark in mid-December. Since he's returned, Wichita has been nearly unstoppable, but it lacks the kid of marquee wins that would warrant a high seed.

"Mock brackets currently have Wichita State anywhere from a No. 6 seed to a No. 12, which reflects the challenge of figuring out what to do with the Shockers," Yahoo Sports' Jeff Eisenberg wrote. "Do you reward them for running roughshod over the Valley? Do you penalize them for a lack of marquee wins? Or do you try to find some happy medium?"

7. Atlantic 10

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Shaka Smart isn't coaching VCU anymore, but the Rams team he left behind is starting to get on the kind of roll it did when he was still there. The Rams are one of three teams from the Atlantic 10 who could make a run to Houston, but unlike the others, it wouldn't be as surprising.

VCU has won 12 in a row, 10 by double digits, and it's the only team in the A-10 that has yet to lose in conference play. The Rams have a win at St. Joseph's, arguably the league's biggest surprise at 7-2, and they finish the season at 8-1 Dayton in a game that figures to decide the regular-season title.

Dayton is looking better than last year's NCAA tournament team, to the point it shouldn't end up in the First Four again. And St. Joseph's, though it's coming off a home loss to St. Bonaventure, has arguably the league's best all-around player in junior forward DeAndre Bembry.

6. Pac-12

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A strong performance in the preseason had the Pac-12 getting rave reviews for its depth, to the point that many wondered if the league could land nine or 10 teams in the NCAA tournament. It could still get seven or eight, but most of those don't seem capable of doing much more than getting an invitation.

Aside from Oregon, which has emerged from the crowded standings to lead with an 8-2 conference record, it's hard to see anyone else from the league being able to make a push beyond the Sweet 16 at best.

The Ducks have what it takes, though, having won five in a row including at Arizona to snap the Wildcats' 49-game home win streak.

"During a wide-open season that lacks dominant teams, the Ducks aren't just an upstart, they look like a legitimate contender," Ricky O'Donnell of SB Nation wrote.

Arizona has made two consecutive Elite Eights but lacks the horses it rode for those previous runs. Getting freshman Allonzo Trier back from a hand injury could help, but it may not enough be to get to the third weekend.

From the rest of the pack, Utah might have the best opportunity to go deep.

5. SEC

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Kentucky's inconsistent play this season has left the SEC wide open for someone else to take the top spot. Texas A&M looked to be the team to do this, but consecutive road losses in the league have dropped the Aggies into a tie with LSU at 7-2. It's also lessened the conference's overall profile and might again make Kentucky the best bet to reach the Final Four.

The Wildcats have lost three times in the league, six times overall, and are a shell of the team that went unbeaten until the national semifinals a season ago. No one is trying to say this year's version is anywhere near as good, but it's still good enough to make a run if John Calipari can find the right formula and have it stick.

The same goes for Billy Kennedy and Texas A&M, assuming his team can play as well away from home as it does in College Station.

LSU has the talent to be one of the last four teams standing, and is more than just Ben Simmons, but it's yet to turn that into a string of wins.

4. Big East

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Villanova remains the class of the Big East, though the overall strength of the teams chasing right behind it is much better than the previous two seasons. That bodes well for the league's chances to make the Final Four, since 'Nova hasn't had the greatest postseason track record.

Several different teams have taken turns looking like strong contenders to make a run, but they also have all had their flaws. Providence and Xavier have shown the most staying power, though Providence's hopes lie in the ability of Ben Bentil and Rodney Bullock to ensure Kris Dunn isn't forced to play hero.

Xavier had a slip at home against Georgetown a few weeks ago, but otherwise it's been the most consistent team in the conference outside of Villanova. The Musketeers' 31-point loss at Villanova deserves a mulligan after Edmond Sumner was hurt early in the game, and their rematch comes on Feb. 24.

This Villanova team might be better built for the postseason than the ones that squandered strong seeds the last two years by falling on the first weekend. If so, the Wildcats will be able to thank the improved competition they've faced in the league for making them better prepared.

3. Big Ten

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The Big Ten has had at least one team make the Final Four each of the previous four tournaments (including two in 2015) and six times in the last seven years. There are some new teams at or near the top of the standings than in years past, but that shouldn't affect the league's overall chances to get to Houston.

Consider Iowa first and foremost among the Big Ten's contenders, even with last week's loss at Maryland. The Hawkeyes have been a force since reassessing themselves following a poor showing at the AdvoCare Invitational in Orlando, Florida, and a season sweep of both Michigan State and Purdue proves this.

Maryland has some offensive issues to work out in order to be a serious player in the NCAA tournament, as does Purdue, but we can count out neither at this point. The same goes for Indiana, which has the toughest part of its schedule still to come but because of that offense can't be discounted.

And then there's Michigan State, which should be grandfathered onto all Final Four contender lists as long as Tom Izzo is around. No coach figures out how to navigate March Madness as well as he does, and this could be his most talented team.

2. ACC

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Before losing at Louisville on Monday, North Carolina was garnering the most buzz for Final Four consideration of any team other than Oklahoma. And that was with senior Marcus Paige mired in one of the worst offensive slumps of his career.

But that's the beauty of the Tar Heels—that they haven't been reliant on one player (or even two) and have weathered injuries and performance issues. Now, they're heading into the meat of the ACC schedule, though, so the jury remains out on whether UNC is truly capable of its first Final Four bid since 2009.

Whoever comes out of the ACC should be considered a strong contender, since 12 of the league's 15 schools are among the top 63 teams in the KenPom.com rankings. All of them won't get into the NCAA tournament, but those that do will be battle-tested and thus in a position to use that experience to their advantage.

The best bets outside of North Carolina, Virginia and even Duke, despite its struggles. If Amile Jefferson returns from injury and can be effective, a team that has had to make do with six players suddenly getting a seventh could be ready to go on a tear.

Louisville would be right up there as well, but Friday's news that the school had self-imposed a postseason ban (amid an NCAA investigation) takes the Cardinals out of the equation.

1. Big 12

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The Big 12 has established itself as the best league in the country for the second year in a row. The difference this time around is the teams at the top of the conference are clearly better than those at the bottom half and thus are more capable of going on a run.

In 2014-15, the Big 12 got seven of its 10 teams into the NCAA tournament, but only two made it to the Sweet 16. Upset losses by Baylor and Iowa State contributed to the overall March performance, but even those that made the second weekend (Kansas and Oklahoma) had major flaws.

This season, the flaws still exist but aren't as glaring for the teams at the top. And more importantly, at least one team (Oklahoma) is showing it's capable of maintaining its top gear for an extended run.

Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas and West Virginia have also all been strong, though to a lesser extent, and thus are just as capable of being knocked out on the first weekend than making the third.

The Big 12 hasn't had a team in the Final Four since 2012, but the drought has a great shot at ending in two months.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.