How Can Andy Murray Beat Novak Djokovic, Who Is a Better Version of Himself?

Andy Murray was born one week before Novak Djokovic. The beta launch of the ultimate tennis player, Murray arrived first, but Djokovic is the better version.

Murray and Djokovic play similar styles of tennis. Two baseliners with superb defensive skills, the familiar foes face off Sunday in the finals of the 2016 Australian Open.

They've competed against each other since they were teens. As pros, Djokovic is 21-9 against Murray. 

Prior to a quarterfinals meeting at the 2014 U.S. Open, Murray told USA Today's Douglas Robson, "I would say we play a fairly similar style, and I think that's why a lot of the matches have been long games, long rallies, long points, because we do a lot of the same things well." 

Last year, Sports Illustrated analyzed ATP World Tour statistics for a U.S. Open preview. The data revealed that Djokovic and Murray were "two of kind."  They had equally effective return games and court coverage. They both won 56 percent of their second-serve returns.

The biggest difference was the second serve. Djokovic had been winning 60 percent of his first-serve points. Murray only won 53 percent. Djokovic's average second-serve speed was 96 mph. Murray's was 86 mph. 

A 10 mph advantage on second serve is like that Apple upgrade that made first-generation iPhones obsolete.

Murray's second serve is such a liability that Daily Mail writer Mike Dickson blasted the British No. 1 after his loss to Djokovic in the 2015 Australian Open final.

Dickson wrote that "Djokovic won 62 percent of his second serves to Murray’s 34 percent, but it was 15 mph faster. More startlingly, the 83 mph average of the Murray second delivery in the final was 10 mph slower than Serena Williams and 12 mph slower than Maria Sharapova managed in the women’s final."

The second serve is the most glaring difference. However, Djokovic edges Murray in so many other areas that the totality of the minor improvements creates a big gap in their overall games. 

It's the tiny tweaks Djokovic makes that produce monumental results. Let's say Murray stretches to make a play on a ball served out wide. He gets there, but his return lands in the middle of the net. On the same type of serve, Djokovic stretches and slides to make a play. He gets there and hits a clean cross-court winner. 

Murray is one of the better athletes on tour. He works hard at working out. Djokovic is a fitness specimen who reportedly drinks mineral water with a half a dozen vitamins and sometimes sleeps in a hyperbaric chamber, according to ESPN the Magazine's Eli Saslow, who wrote an article that asked "Has Novak Djokovic Become the Fittest Athlete Ever?" 

Djokovic told Saslow, "In our sport now, there can be no room for weakness. You look for small advantages. Every shot has to be a weapon."

That's the opponent Murray is going up against Sunday, a player who has sought to improve every stroke, movement and tactic. Yet Murray's going to have to figure out how to beat this ultimate tennis playing machine. 

As the Guardian's Kevin Mitchell wrote, it's a daunting task:

"

If there is a tennis equivalent of hell, it surely is being dragged back to the scene of serial pain inflicted by a rival who is not only a week younger but roughly $50m richer, eight grand slam titles better off and regarded by every sane critic as the best player in the world now and for the foreseeable future.

"

Murray last defeated Djokovic at the 2015 Rogers Cup. In an interview after his win over Djokovic, Murray told reporters (via ASAP Sports transcripts): "I feel like I fought for every point. I feel like I competed better from more points during the match." 

After nearly squandering a two-set lead against Djokovic at the 2012 U.S. Open, Murray managed to hold on to win his first Grand Slam title. 

Clive Brunskill/Getty Images

The difference that day? Ivan Lendl, Murray's coach at the time, told the Associated Press (via ESPN.com) that it came down to desire. "At some point, it's going to come down to who wants it more or how badly do you want it...I don't want to say Novak didn't want it. But it's: How bad do you want it? What price are you going to pay and how can you execute under extreme pressure?" 

A better second serve, higher fitness level and a thirstier heart may be the only things separating Murray from Djokovic. Unlike serves, speed and agility—all quantifiable—hunger is measured by the depth of deprivation.  

Perhaps achieving less has left Murray hungrier than Djokovic. Or maybe winning more makes Djokovic greedier than Murray.  

If Murray hopes to defeat the ultimate tennis player, he'll have to win with intangibles: drive, heart and hunger. Those emotional and mental plugins can override any bugs Murray has in his game.