Fact or Fiction on All of MLB Offseason Week 12's Free-Agency, Trade Rumors

With just about three weeks to go before pitchers and catchers begin reporting to spring training, the baseball season draws ever closer. Yet a number of notable free agents remain unsigned, which—you'd think—would lead to a flurry of activity in the days ahead.

Yet the rumor mill has remained silent in regard to many of those players. Whether it's because teams are at their payroll limits or choosing to hold onto some disposable income for later, when injuries could require them to make a substantial addition, there's not much cash available for those free agents.

Could one of those free agents wind up taking a small-market deal with a small-market club? Does a contender value a catcher as highly as it does a front-of-the-rotation arm? Can a team find a taker for a high-priced veteran who is past his prime?

We'll tackle all of that and more in this week's edition of Fact or Fiction.

Fact: Dexter Fowler Will Stay in Chicago

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

Dexter Fowler won't have to get familiar with a new city in 2016; it's just a question of which Chicago field—U.S. Cellular or Wrigley—he'll call home.

While one executive pegs a return to the Cubs as the most likely outcome for Fowler, according to CBS Chicago's Bruce Levine, the White Sox are also known to have interest in the 30-year-old outfielder, who would give both clubs another top-of-the-order bat to plug into their respective lineups.

Fowler isn't a perfect fit with either club, as both would have to shuffle their outfield configurations to clear a spot for him. The Cubs, having signed Jason Heyward to effectively replace Fowler in center field, would have to trade Jorge Soler or shift him to a reserve role; neither is an ideal scenario.

It's a bit easier for the White Sox, who could slide Adam Eaton over to right field, replacing the ineffective Avisail Garcia, but the team would have to surrender the compensatory draft pick it received when Jeff Samardzija signed with San Francisco. The Cubs would not have to surrender a pick.

Levine suggests a two-year deal with an opt-out (i.e. a player option) for the second year, with an annual average value only slightly higher than the $9.5 million Fowler made in 2015, would work for both teams and the player—and he's probably not too far off.

With only a few teams still in the market for a starting outfielder—and even fewer with the payroll room to add a player who is earning more than $10 million—Fowler's market is limited. It makes sense for him to stay in familiar territory—for another year at least—and test the free-agent waters once again next winter.

Fiction: Pittsburgh Will Sign Francisco Cervelli to an Extension

Fred Vuich/Associated Press

A free agent after the upcoming season, Francisco Cervelli would like to stay in Pittsburgh—but only if the Pirates are willing to pay him like Francisco Liriano.

That's what sources tell Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, who reports Cervelli is looking for a three-year, $39 million extension, the same deal that Liriano inked with the club before the 2015 season began.

“We like Cervelli a lot and would welcome the chance to have him remain a Pirate in the event we are able to find a contract that makes sense for both the player and club," general manager Neal Huntington told Sawchik when asked about the potential for an extension.

But—and there's always a but—Cervelli isn't the team's only option behind the plate moving forward, as Huntington went on to note. “We are also fortunate to have two quality catching prospects that are near major league-ready in case we are not able to reach common financial ground.”

Those two prospects—Reese McGuire and Elias Diaz—are among the 10-best catching prospects in baseball, according to MLB.com's Mike Rosenbaum, coming in at No. 4 and No. 6, respectively. With veteran Chris Stewart under team control through 2018, the Pirates have other options.

A three-year, $39 million deal may not be a major expenditure for some teams, but it's a big deal for Pittsburgh. The Pirates don't have to spend big on a catcher in the foreseeable future—and they won't, allowing Cervelli to depart as a free agent after the season.

Fact: Ian Desmond Could Wind Up in Tampa Bay

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

As Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times recently wrote, the two major hurdles standing in the way of Ian Desmond becoming a member of the Tampa Bay Rays—the terms of his contract and the draft pick the Rays would surrender by signing him—are significant.

But they're not impossible to clear, though both Desmond and the Rays would have to be willing to move out of their comfort zones to make it happen.

Desmond would have bet on himself being able to rebound from a disappointing 2015, signing a one-year deal for far less than the $15.8 million qualifying offer he turned down from Washington. Let's say something in the $7-$8 million range.

That might not be such a stretch for Desmond, who, according to Topkin, would love to play at Tropicana Field, which sits less than an hour away from his hometown of Sarasota—and with Rays outfielder Steven Souza Jr., one of his closest friends. And it's not as if other teams are scrambling to sign him.

As for the Rays, not only would they have to be comfortable adding that kind of salary to the payroll but also surrendering the 13th overall pick in the 2016 draft. So long as Desmond would agree to reject a qualifying offer from the Rays, the team would recoup that lost pick next year.

Considering the potential impact Desmond would have, that's a price the Rays could be willing to pay. A heart of the order with Desmond, Logan Forsythe and Evan Longoria would do some damage, and he'd push Brad Miller into a super-utility role, strengthening the team's bench in the process.

Fiction: Arizona Will Find a Taker for Aaron Hill

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

MLB Network's Jon Heyman tweeted that Arizona has been trying to trade veteran infielder Aaron Hill, adding that the crop of still-available free agents—a list that includes Ian Desmond, Howie Kendrick and Jimmy Rollins—makes finding a willing trade partner difficult.

So does the fact that Hill is due significant money ($12 million) and, quite frankly, hasn't aged well, hitting a combined .238 with a .648 OPS and 75 wRC+ over the past two seasons. While the 33-year-old is capable of playing second base and third base, his defense at both positions is below average, which is another issue.

Sure, the Diamondbacks could pick up a significant portion of his remaining salary and/or package him with a prospect to facilitate a deal, but even then, they're not going to get anything substantial in return.

Hill, who signed a three-year, $35 million contract extension in 2013, is going to play out his deal as a part-time player (and as a roadblock for younger talent, such as Brandon Drury) with the D-Backs.

Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).

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