Australian Open 2016 Men's Semifinals: Murray vs. Raonic Preview, Prediction
Andy Murray and Milos Raonic carry the banner for countries that are experiencing a tennis renaissance. The best of Great Britain and Canada will clash in the semifinals of the 2016 Australian Open.
Murray earned his sixth trip to the Australian Open semifinals with a win over No. 8 David Ferrer. Murray is only the fourth British man to reach the semifinals at the Australian Open, according to the Daily Record.
Fellow British No. 1 Johanna Konta will play in the women's semifinal. Murray's brother Jamie is in the men's doubles semifinals, and another Brit, Gordon Reid, is also in the wheelchair semis.
Raonic beat Frenchman Gael Monfils 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4. He is the first Canadian man to reach the semifinals at the Australian Open. In 2014, the Canadian Eugenie Bouchard reached the semifinals in Melbourne.
Forget about long rallies. This match will be about holding serve. The guy who blinks gets broken. It's also a battle between a two-time Grand Slam champion in Murray against a guy who is trying to break through in Raonic.
The Canadian hopes to elevate his status from rising contender to Grand Slam champion. He told the Associated Press (via the Los Angeles Times) that his fourth-round win over Stan Wawrinka represented a huge step in that process: “I think it was more you have these guys, these Grand Slam champions, guys that have been playing great, and to beat one of them for the first time at a Slam, doesn't matter if that was on Court 15 or whichever court, it has a very concrete sort of message to the work I'm putting in and how I'm going about things.”
Can the cool, calm Canadian best the fiery British brute? The following looks at the matchup, examines the keys to victory for each player and offers a prediction.
Who Has the Historical Edge?
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Murray and Raonic are three-all in head-to-head competition. Two of those matches were walkovers. So they've actually beaten each other twice. Murray has won the last two.
They met just once in 2015, in the quarterfinals at the Madrid Masters. Murray won the clay-court match in straight sets.
Murray at the Australian Open
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Murray's semifinals four-set win over Ferrer wasn't a particularly clean match. He committed eight double faults and 64 unforced errors to just 49 winners. But behind a strong return game, Murray was able to dismiss Ferrer 6-3, 6-7 (5), 6-3, 6-3.
In the fourth round, Murray played a solid match in a straight sets win over Bernard Tomic. With 18 aces to just one double fault and 43 winners to 22 unforced errors, Murray was able to hold off the talented young Australian.
Throughout the tournament Murray has relied on his big first serve. He's winning nearly 80 percent of his first-serve points.
Raonic at the Australian Open
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Raonic was able to hold off a rather subdued Gael Monfils in the quarterfinals.
In business-like fashion, Raonic kept his emotions in check and never allowed Monfils to gain any lasting momentum.
The Canadian's big win came in the fourth round against the hard-hitting Wawrinka. Raonic jumped out to a two-set lead over Wawrinka, before the 2014 Australian Open champion fought back to force a fifth set. The comeback showed Raonic has what it takes to survive the grind required to topple a Slam champion.
Raonic is winning more than 80 percent of his first-serve points. He's struggled with unforced errors, but he's been able to get by because of the dominant serve.
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Biggest X-Factors
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The serve is always key. But in this match, it's crucial.
Both men have massive first serves. But Raonic is launching rockets. Against Monfils, the Canadian averaged nearly 130 mph on first serves. His second serve was nearly 107 mph.
Murray hit a serve at nearly 135 mph against Ferrer. He can hit first serves almost as hard as Raonic can. However, the average speed of Murray's second serve can dip under 90 mph. That's like putting the ball on a tee for the big-hitting Raonic.
Another big X-factor will be the power of the counterpunch. With both men able to serve lights out, defending well is pivotal.
Murray Will Win Australian Open Semifinal If...
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Murray has to avoid careless unforced errors. Against Raonic, a break point might as well be a set point. If Raonic gets tight and his first-serve percentage drops, Murray must go for it on returns.
He also has to mix it up on his serve. He can't let Raonic get dialed in on placement. Monfils, who served well in that match, got a bit predictable at times, and Raonic made him pay.
Murray has to test Raonic's movement. Despite his improved fitness, Raonic is still a big guy who is relatively slow around the court. By moving Raonic around, Murray can exploit his court-coverage advantage and wear the big guy out.
Raonic Will Win Australian Open Semifinal If...
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Raonic needs to continue his masterful serving. He must take a few chances on the second serve as he did against Monfils.
He also has to bring that big body to the net and force Murray to take chances down the line. Raonic managed to put away 31 points at the net against Monfils. If he can cut off Murray at the net, Raonic should hold serve comfortably.
Prediction
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Raonic's win over Roger Federer in Brisbane gave the Canadian the belief he could knock off the top players in a big match. He followed that up with the victory over Wawrinka.
No longer just an ace-hitting machine, Ranoic has improved his all-court game. Murray has far more Grand Slam experience; however, Raonic is playing cool, calculated and clean tennis.
The Canadian breaks through and upends Murray in four sets.
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