Buying and Selling 2016 Hype for Bowl Season's Breakout Stars
Bowl season exists in its own space in the college football universe. It's where the wild and the weird come out to play, with plenty of surprise performances becoming the norm.
Sometimes, players who break out in the postseason can carry that momentum on to the next season. Ohio State Buckeyes running Ezekiel Elliott and Georgia Bulldogs safety Dominick Sanders were prime examples in 2015, as they took the next step after huge bowl game performances to end 2014.
In the 2015 postseason, we saw the player Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee dubbed "Alabama's unicorn" have a MVP performance out of nowhere in the national championship game. Elsewhere, several playmakers such as the Louisville Cardinals' future star quarterback put up dizzying stat lines after spending parts of the season lower on the depth chart.
As we look ahead to next season, let's buy or sell the 2016 stock for 10 breakout players from the most recent slate of bowl games. Keep in mind that these players are the lesser-known ones who had monster days, not the established stars such as Clemson Tigers quarterback Deshaun Watson or LSU Tigers running back Leonard Fournette.
Which breakout players do you think will improve on their big bowl performances this fall, and which ones do you think just peaked in the postseason? Give us your thoughts in the comments below.
Alabama TE O.J. Howard
1 of 10
Pre-Bowl Stats (13 games)
30 receptions for 335 yards and zero TDs
Bowl Stats (two games)
Eight receptions for 267 yards and two TDs
Buy or Sell?
Perhaps the first 40 games of O.J. Howard's career were a long con by the Alabama Crimson Tide coaching staff. The former 5-star tight end had his first monster game in college football at the perfect time—the national title game, when he had five catches for 208 yards and two touchdowns. He also had 59 yards in the CFP semifinal against the Michigan State Spartans.
"O.J., quite honestly, should have been more involved all year long," Alabama coach Nick Saban said, per Heather Dinich of ESPN.com. "Sometimes he was open and we didn't get him the ball, but I think the last two games have been breakout games for him in terms of what he's capable of and what he can do."
So will Howard go back to the football version of witness protection in 2016 after announcing he would stay in school? Don't bet on it.
Alabama will return its top two receivers in Calvin Ridley and ArDarius Stewart, and their talents should open up more opportunities for Howard down the middle. Offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin will find ways for his new starting quarterback, whoever he may be, to get the ball to Howard after what he showed in the final two games of the season.
Verdict: Buy
Baylor RB Johnny Jefferson
2 of 10
Pre-Bowl Stats (10 games)
113 carries for 701 yards and five TDs
Bowl Stats (one game)
23 carries for 299 yards and three TDs
Buy or Sell?
In the Russell Athletic Bowl on Dec. 29, running back Johnny Jefferson led the way for a banged-up Baylor Bears offense that looked like, according to Jason Kirk of SB Nation, "1895 proto-manball." Five different players took snaps for the Bears in their 49-38 win over the North Carolina Tar Heels as top running back Shock Linwood, No. 1 wide receiver Corey Coleman and quarterbacks Jarrett Stidham and Seth Russell were injured.
That opened the door for Jefferson to gash a North Carolina defense that, while much improved in its first year under defensive coordinator Gene Chizik, allowed at least 200 rushing yards to eight of its previous 13 opponents. With Linwood down, Jefferson got to spearhead a run-heavy attack that went for 645 yards on the Tar Heels.
But it's hard to imagine Jefferson will get more chances to crack the 200-yard mark in 2016. Linwood, who improved on his rushing stats across the board in 2015, should be the No. 1 running back for the third straight year. Baylor will also return backups Devin Chafin and Terence Williams, who both ran for more than 550 yards last season.
Jefferson was in the right place at the right time against a North Carolina team that struggled against the run. He won't be the starter in an explosive running back rotation that goes four deep, so it might be 2017 before we get to see this rising junior ravage a defense like this again.
Verdict: Sell
Clemson WR Hunter Renfrow
3 of 10
Pre-Bowl Stats (13 games)
22 receptions for 345 yards and two TDs
Bowl Stats (two games)
11 receptions for 147 yards and three TDs
Buy or Sell?
O.J. Howard wasn't the only breakout receiving weapon in the College Football Playoff. Clemson countered with wide receiver Hunter Renfrow, a former walk-on who was awarded a scholarship prior to the start of the 2015 season.
Outside of one big game against the NC State Wolfpack, Renfrow stayed mostly quiet in his redshirt freshman season. But with fellow freshman Deon Cain suspended for the title game, Renfrow followed up a 59-yard effort against the Oklahoma Sooners with seven catches for 88 yards and two scores against Alabama.
Even though the speedy and sure-handed Renfrow helped the Tigers take the Tide down to the wire, the reality is that he is in the middle of a loaded wide receiver group at Clemson. Artavis Scott (901 yards in 2015) and Cain (582 yards) will be back for 2016, along with No. 1 wideout Mike Williams, who had 1,030 yards in 2014 but missed virtually the entire 2015 season with injury.
As great of a success story as Renfrow is, it's hard to imagine him becoming a consistent playmaker for the Clemson offense without seeing where he falls in the depth chart among the above trio and former blue-chippers Germone Hopper, Ray-Ray McCloud and Trevion Thompson.
Verdict: Sell
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Florida State DB Derwin James
4 of 10
Pre-Bowl Stats (13 games)
77 tackles (7.5 for loss) and 3.5 sacks
Bowl Stats (two games)
14 tackles (two for loss) and one sack
Buy or Sell?
Most college football fans should have already known who Florida State Seminoles defensive back Derwin James was before he lined up in the Chick-fil-A Bowl against the Houston Cougars. But in case they didn't, the New Year's Eve opener was a showcase of the freshman's elite talents, even though it came in a loss.
James set new career highs in virtually every defensive category, as he was all over the field against quarterback Greg Ward Jr. and the uptempo Houston offense. He had nine solo tackles and made a few plays in the Cougars backfield, and he's focused on stepping his game up even more as a sophomore.
"I’m looking to come out next year and make more plays, to put us in a better position," James said, per Tom D'Angelo of the Palm Beach Post. "I made a lot of plays but I left a lot of plays out there too. That just comes with experience."
With another offseason of preparation, James has the potential to be one of the nation's best all-around defensive backs in 2016. His big day at the Georgia Dome was just the beginning.
Verdict: Buy
Indiana RB Devine Redding
5 of 10
Pre-Bowl Stats (12 games)
191 carries for 785 yards and eight TDs
Bowl Stats (one game)
35 carries for 227 yards and one TD
Buy or Sell?
Like Johnny Jefferson at Baylor, running back Devine Redding was thrown into a starting role late in the 2015 season for the high-powered Indiana Hoosiers offense. Redding followed up back-to-back 100-yard performances by breaking the 200-yard mark for the first time in his career in an overtime loss to the Duke Blue Devils.
Now Redding can take over the Hoosiers' No. 1 running back job for good, as 2015 starter Jordan Howard declared early for the NFL draft. Redding and Howard each ran for 1,000 yards, replacing the 2014 production of 2,000-yard rusher Tevin Coleman, who also left school early.
Redding should get plenty of work in 2016 as the feature back for the Big Ten's top offense, which returns three starters along the offensive line—most notably senior All-American guard Dan Feeney.
The Ohio native showed why he has the potential to approach the heights of Coleman's masterful 2014 season in the Dec. 26 Pinstripe Bowl. He's a durable back with good speed, and he'll be one to watch for sure this fall.
Verdict: Buy
Louisville QB Lamar Jackson
6 of 10
Pre-Bowl Stats (12 games)
123-of-221 passing for 1,613 yards, 10 TDs and eight INTs; 141 carries for 734 yards and nine TDs
Bowl Stats (one game)
12-of-26 passing for 227 yards, two TDs and zero INTs; 22 carries for 226 yards and two TDs
Buy or Sell?
Quarterback Lamar Jackson's up-and-down freshman campaign at Louisville ended with perhaps the biggest uptick possible. He posted a 200-200 game in the Music City Bowl on Dec. 30 against what had been a solid Texas A&M Aggies defense, becoming only the third player to ever do that in bowl history, according to SB Nation.
"He's a lot faster than you think (compared to just watching him on film)," Texas A&M defensive line coach Terry Price said, per Bruce Feldman of Fox Sports. "He's tall and a pretty big guy, but he really has big-time top-end speed and he can make you miss in a heartbeat."
The great news for Louisville is that Jackson could be doing this for at least two more seasons. In 2016, he'll be aided by the return of nearly every starter on the entire offense. The Cardinals only have to replace center Tobijah Hughley.
Jackson came on strong at the end of the season as the offensive line in front of him gained confidence. With all of his receivers back and a stronger front five, Jackson has the opportunity to light up plenty of defenses in 2016.
Verdict: Buy
SDSU DE Kyle Kelley
7 of 10
Pre-Bowl Stats (13 games)
15 tackles (5.5 for loss) and four sacks
Bowl Stats (one game)
Nine tackles (3.5 for loss) and 3.5 sacks
Buy or Sell?
One of the most dominant defensive performances of all bowl season came from a rather unlikely source—San Diego State Aztecs defensive end Kyle Kelley. He was fourth on the team in sacks heading into the Hawaii Bowl on Dec. 24 against the Cincinnati Bearcats, but he left paradise as the second-best with 3.5 in a 42-7 victory.
The former JUCO transfer had taken down the opposing quarterback multiple times just once, when the Aztecs routed a UNLV Rebels team that ranked 106th nationally in sacks allowed per game. Cincinnati, on the other hand, ranked a respectable 59th in that category.
In 2016, SDSU has a strong chance to repeat as Mountain West champion, as the Aztecs return Kelly and seven other starters on a defense that forced the second-most turnovers of any team in college football last season. With fellow end Jon Sanchez departing, the pressure will be on Kelley to step his game up like he did against Cincinnati.
The Aztecs should be able to create a ton of havoc this fall with linebacker Calvin Munson and defensive tackle Alex Barrett leading the way. Kelley has the pass-rushing tools to have a tremendous year after carving up the Cincinnati offense down in Hawaii.
Verdict: Buy
Washington RB Myles Gaskin
8 of 10
Pre-Bowl Stats (12 games)
201 carries for 1,121 yards and 10 TDs
Bowl Stats (one game)
26 carries for 181 yards and four TDs
Buy or Sell?
Washington Huskies running back Myles Gaskin was already attracting some more eyeballs in the Pacific Northwest before the Heart of Dallas Bowl on Dec. 26, and his four-touchdown day against the Southern Miss Golden Eagles was the pinnacle of a strong finish to his freshman campaign.
Gaskin averaged nearly seven yards per carry against the Golden Eagles and scored multiple touchdowns for the first time against an FBS defense. The 5'9'', 192-pound freshman showcased every skill a coach would want to see in a young running back during his monster day.
"Gaskin broke off an 86-yard touchdown run on the first play of the ensuing drive that was all speed," Kevin Gemmell of ESPN.com wrote. "If that long score showed his wheels, Gaskin's final touchdown, from 13 yards out, showed his shiftiness and power as he broke a pair of tackles and barreled into the end zone."
Gaskin will be one of nine starters returning on the Washington offense in 2016, with four of those players returning along the offensive line. His backfield chemistry with fellow rising sophomore quarterback Jake Browning will be important, and he's got all the tools to become a national star this fall.
Verdict: Buy
West Virginia QB Skyler Howard
9 of 10
Pre-Bowl Stats (12 games)
193-of-352 passing for 2,613 yards, 21 TDs and 12 INTs
Bowl Stats (one game)
28-of-51 passing for 532 yards, five TDs and two INTs
Buy or Sell?
West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Skyler Howard had his fair share of critics during the 2015 season, but he was able to quiet them for at least an evening in the Cactus Bowl on Jan. 2. He threw for more yards than any other quarterback in a 43-42 win over the Arizona State Sun Devils, scoring five touchdowns in the process.
"It’s about time it fell together," Howard said, per Mike Casazza of the Charleston Gazette-Mail. "Our goal throughout the season was to get better each week on offense, keep improving each week. It finally started clicking."
But how much of Howard's big day came because of the defense he was facing? Arizona State finished the season with the worst pass defense in college football, allowing 400 passing yards in five different games and 500 yards in its last two. Even with that porous secondary, Howard fell below the 60 percent mark in completion percentage for the ninth time in 13 games and still threw two picks.
Maybe Howard will be able to turn the corner with the confidence gained from the 532-yard night against Arizona State, as West Virginia returns a ton of skill talent. But it's way too early to buy his stock after a massive rebound game against an abysmal pass defense.
Verdict: Sell
Wisconsin LB Jack Cichy
10 of 10
Pre-Bowl Stats (12 games)
51 tackles (five for loss) and two sacks
Bowl Stats (one game)
Nine tackles (three for loss) and three sacks
Buy or Sell?
It took one series for Wisconsin Badgers linebacker Jack Cichy to become a fixture on many of the All-Bowl teams of the season. Cichy sacked USC Trojans quarterback Cody Kessler on three straight plays and later forced an interception in what would be a close 23-21 Wisconsin win in the Dec. 30 Holiday Bowl.
If Cichy played the entire game—he missed the first half due to a targeting penalty he committed against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at the end of the regular season—he could have had an otherworldly stat line.
Could Cichy produce similar performances in 2016 for the Badgers? It's possible, but he's projected to be behind a pair of returning starters at inside linebacker this fall in rising sophomores T.J. Edwards and Chris Orr. He'll also have to battle for playing time for a new defensive coordinator, too, as former Badgers defensive leader Dave Aranda is now at LSU.
Cichy was able to exploit a USC offensive line that was vulnerable to pressure down the middle, as Jason Galloway of the Wisconsin State Journal noted. Without a guaranteed starting job right now, key reserve Cichy is a reluctant sell for 2016.
Verdict: Sell
All stats courtesy of CFBStats.com unless otherwise noted.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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