Ranking 2015-16 MLB Offseason's Biggest Steals, Mistakes Entering February
Some would say that compiling a list of the offseason's biggest steals and mistakes with more than a month to go before spring training begins—and a handful of impact players still available via free agency and trade—is an effort in futility.
After all, teams are sure to make some decisions that will change this list over the next four weeks or so. But there's no time like the present to look back on what's unfolded in the baseball universe over the past three months.
Now this entire exercise is largely subjective—there's no convoluted formula or advanced statistics to aid us in our quest—and there are sure to be some disagreements over which moves were mistakes, which were steals and where they were ranked.
While we're largely focusing on moves that were made, moves that teams didn't make are fair game as well. So don't be surprised if you happen to see a player (or players) appear more than once on this list.
What decisions made the cut? Let's take a look.
No. 5 Steal: Pittsburgh Signs John Jaso
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It might seem odd to call a player who's spent five innings over his seven-year career at first base—and that was signed to be the left-handed part of a platoon at the position—a steal, but the two-year, $8 million deal Pittsburgh gave John Jaso is going to pay big dividends for the Pirates.
Of the 101 left-handed batters who have made at least 1,500 plate appearances against right-handed pitching since 2010, Jaso ranks 21st in wRC+ with a mark of 128, the same as Curtis Granderson and ahead of players like Jacoby Ellsbury (115) and Brandon Crawford (97).
While the 32-year-old doesn't have the requisite power we've come to expect from first basemen—he's hit only 37 home runs in nearly 1,600 at-bats—his left-handed bat not only brings some balance to Pittsburgh's lineup, but his ability to get on base consistently plays into what the Pirates are looking for.
"He's a guy that commands the zone, uses the whole field, works the count, is a high walk-percentage guy and a low strikeout-percentage guy," general manager Neal Huntington told MLB.com's Adam Berry. "He's a very, very good complement to our existing lineup."
As long as he can stay healthy, Jaso stands to become one of this winter's biggest steals.
No. 5 Mistake: The Orioles Re-Sign Chris Davis
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Baltimore relies heavily on the long ball to power its offense, so it's hard to argue with the team's decision to re-sign Chris Davis, the game's most prolific home run hitter over the past four years, to a seven-year, $161 million deal.
But the Orioles had already prepared for life without him, having traded for Mark Trumbo—essentially a poor man's version of Davis—before re-signing the slugger, and now the team finds itself without the resources to bolster other areas of need.
Specifically, they've got no way to replace their ace, Wei-Yin Chen, who took his talents to South Beach on a five-year, $80 million pact with the Miami Marlins. A rotation led by Ubaldo Jimenez and Chris Tillman isn't going to scare anyone, especially the high-powered lineups in the AL East.
Rather than re-sign Davis, the Orioles could have used that money to keep Chen and still have plenty of cash available to add another impact piece, whether it be a corner outfielder or another starting pitcher.
Instead, the Orioles ensure that the core of a .500 team remains intact. That certainly doesn't seem like money well spent.
No. 4 Steal: The Mariners Sign Nori Aoki
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I'm admittedly a bigger fan of Nori Aoki than most, but Seattle managed to not only upgrade its outfield for less than $6 million, but also find the table-setter atop its lineup who has been missing since Ichiro Suzuki's departure in 2012.
"The element of on-base ability and speed to keep our lineup moving with traffic on the basepaths that feed the middle of that lineup has a chance to be pretty good for us," general manager Jerry Dipoto told reporters (via USA Today) at Aoki's introductory news conference.
Aoki, owner of a .287 batting average and .353 on-base percentage over his four-year career in the big leagues, can't help but make a Seattle offense that finished the 2015 season fifth in home runs (198) and 21st in runs (656) significantly more productive.
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No. 4 Mistake: The Nationals Sign Daniel Murphy
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It's hard to buy into the notion that Washington "stole" Daniel Murphy from the New York Mets when the Nationals' division rivals had no intention of re-signing him. And with that narrative, the three-year, $36.5 million deal they gave him loses some of its luster.
Things get even uglier when you dig deeper into his defense at the keystone, something ESPN Stats and Information did shortly after the signing was announced:
"Murphy’s minus-40 defensive runs saved at second base over the last four seasons rank second-worst in baseball (Rickie Weeks is at minus-62). He’ll be a defensive downgrade for the Nationals, who got more defensive runs saved from their second basemen last season (8) than any other team in the National League.
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Sure, Murphy is a consistent producer at the plate, but he's a contact hitter—not a slugger—who strokes doubles, despite the power surge he experienced in the 2015 playoffs, when he homered in six consecutive games and went deep seven times in the first two rounds of the postseason.
His arrival simply doesn't make the Nationals significantly better. And with Wilmer Difo and Trea Turner biding their time in the minors to take over at second base and shortstop, respectively, signing Murphy to a multiyear deal makes even less sense.
Instead, the Nats could have opted to sign someone like David Freese to a one-year deal to play third base, with Anthony Rendon manning the keystone for another season until Difo was ready to take over, at which point he'd slide back to the hot corner.
No. 3 Steal: The Blue Jays Re-Sign Marco Estrada
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Had Marco Estrada waited for the pitching market to materialize, there's little doubt that he'd have been able to land a far more lucrative deal than the two-year, $26 million pact he signed to stay with the Toronto Blue Jays roughly two weeks after free agency began.
Estrada, 32, shocked even the powers-that-be in Toronto with his stellar performance last season, setting new career highs in starts (28), ERA (3.13), WHIP (1.04), wins (13) and innings pitched (181). Tony LaCava, Toronto's interim general manager at the time, told John Chidley-Hill of The Canadian Press (via the Hamilton Spectator):
"I've got to admit, I think that when we got Marco last year we definitely had interest in him, but to say that we thought he'd start the AL Championship Series for us, I think that would've been something none of us would've expected. He came in as a guy who wasn't even in our initial rotation but within a month he did enter the rotation and he never looked back.
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To put Estrada's team-friendly deal in proper perspective, consider this: He'll be earning only $1.5 million more in 2016 than J.A. Happ, who before a July 31 trade to Pittsburgh, the magical wonderland for wayward pitchers, was well on his way to an ERA closer to 5.00 than 4.00 for the fourth time in five years.
It would take a complete implosion in 2016 for Estrada's deal to be anything but a massive steal for the Blue Jays.
No. 3 Mistake: The Angels Trade for Andrelton Simmons
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Shortstop wasn't an area of need in Los Angeles, but that didn't stop the Angels from trading incumbent Erick Aybar—and the team's top two prospects, pitchers Sean Newcomb and Chris Ellis—to Atlanta for Andrelton Simmons.
Sure, the team's defense improves with the arrival of the game's best defensive shortstop, but the 26-year-old offers little offensively—and the Angels had far more pressing needs to fill, whether it be second base, left field or pitching. Ellis or Newcomb could have been used to fill one of those holes.
Or better yet—the Angels could have held on to the duo, who would have not only provided additional depth for this year's rotation, but would have surely been factors in 2017, as the Angels may have to replace both Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson, who can become free agents after the upcoming season.
No. 2 Steal: The White Sox Trade for Todd Frazier
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While MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo was higher on the three prospects the Chicago White Sox sent to the Los Angeles Dodgers than those the Cincinnati Reds got from the Dodgers in the three-team deal that sent Todd Frazier to the Windy City, the fact is that the White Sox gave up very little for the All-Star.
While infielder Micah Johnson, right-handed pitcher Frankie Montas and outfielder Trayce Thompson may have been some of Chicago's best prospects, only Montas was considered a Top 100 prospect by MLB.com—and his future likely lies in the bullpen, not the starting rotation.
Johnson was handed the keys to second base in Chicago last season but failed to capitalize on the opportunity, lasting only 36 games before being replaced by the light-hitting but defensively superior Carlos Sanchez.
Thompson was impressive over 44 games for the White Sox down the stretch, hitting .295 with a .896 OPS, but his 26 percent strikeout rate and .247 batting average over parts of seven minor league seasons point to that performance being more of a fluke than the norm.
You'd expect a team to have to pay a far steeper price for one of the game's premier third basemen, one with a steady glove and power that plays anywhere.
No. 2 Mistake: The Dodgers Walk Away from Aroldis Chapman
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It's completely understandable, from both a moral and public relations perspective, why the Los Angeles Dodgers decided to walk away from an agreed-upon deal (at the time) for Cincinnati's Aroldis Chapman.
"(We) just weren't comfortable making the move," Dodgers general manager Farhan Zaidi told the Los Angeles Times' Bill Shaikin.
Again, that's a completely reasonable and understandable response to a potential trade for a player facing allegations of domestic violence.
But from a baseball perspective—and only from a baseball perspective—it was a huge mistake.
It remains unknown exactly what the Dodgers were prepared to give Cincinnati in exchange for the flamethrowing reliever. Sources told ESPN's Jim Bowden that two prospects, neither of which was pitching prospect Julio Urias, would have headed to the Reds.
While the addition of Chapman might not have sat well with the team's All-Star closer Kenley Jansen, it unquestionably would have made the Dodgers bullpen substantially better. Instead, the Dodgers are still (presumably) looking to bolster their relief corps, given the team's shaky rotation after Clayton Kershaw.
With the pressure on Los Angeles to deliver a championship—and division foes Arizona and San Francisco having made significant improvements—not making this move could prove to be far more costly for the Dodgers than the public relations mess it may have caused.
No. 1 Steal: The Yankees Trade for Aroldis Chapman
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Unlike other teams, the New York Yankees were comfortable with the findings their own internal investigation into the domestic violence allegations against Aroldis Chapman to go ahead and pull the trigger on a deal. General manager Brian Cashman told MLB.com's Bryan Hoch:
"We've done as much due diligence on the subject at hand as we possibly can, and we've completed the transaction based on a lot of that due diligence. Given the circumstances that currently exist, I think the price point on acquisition has been modified. We felt this was an opportunity for us to add a big arm to our bullpen, even though there are some things that are unresolved and we will respect that process as it plays out.
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While it remains to be seen whether Major League Baseball will punish Chapman, he was not arrested, and only last week, prosecutors decided not to file criminal charges against him.
Even if Chapman does wind up having to serve a suspension, the Yankees bullpen is well-equipped to handle his absence, with Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller more than capable of holding things down in the ninth inning.
But with him in the mix, the Yankees have the makings of the most dominant late-inning trio that baseball has ever seen. For as Hoch notes, not only is Chapman a force, he's done something that no other pitcher—not even the great Mariano Rivera—was able to accomplish:
"Chapman is the only pitcher in Major League history with four seasons of at least 30 saves and 100 strikeouts, having done so in each of the past four years. Only Eric Gagne (2002-04) and Billy Wagner (1999, 2003, '10) have had as many as three such seasons in their careers.
Over six Major League seasons, Chapman has gone 19-20 with 146 saves, a 2.17 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 324 relief appearances. Since 2010, he leads all Major League relievers with 15.40 strikeouts per nine innings, and his 546 strikeouts ranks second only to Craig Kimbrel (563).
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When you consider that none of the four prospects the Yankees sent to Cincinnati in the deal is a major part of the team's immediate future—and may not have factored into the team's long-term thinking at all—this deal looks all-the-more lopsided in the Bronx Bombers' favor.
No. 1 Mistake: The Diamondbacks Trade for for Shelby Miller
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"Comically high" was how ESPN's Keith Law described the price Arizona paid to obtain Shelby Miller from Atlanta, and that was one of the more gentle reactions the baseball universe had to this December trade.
In exchange for Miller, who is a solid midrotation arm, the Braves obtained underrated outfielder Ender Inciarte, Aaron Blair, a pitching prospect that Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus ranked in their top 50 heading into last season, and shortstop Dansby Swanson, the first overall pick in the 2015 draft.
Nobody disputes that Miller represents a significant upgrade over some of the team's internal options to fill out its rotation, but as ESPN's David Schoenfield wrote, the D-Backs may have taken a significant step back elsewhere:
"Look at it this way: If Miller is a 3-WAR pitcher, maybe that's a three-win upgrade over Arizona's internal options; but Tomas may be -- generously -- a three-win downgrade from Inciarte (thanks to bad defense at third base in 2015, he was worth minus-1.3 WAR). Of course, it's possible that Miller is better than that and that the D-backs sold high on Inciarte and that Tomas hits 25 home runs and learns to draw walks. Maybe.
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What makes the deal look even worse is that there were a plethora of free agent starters still available for the taking, a list that included Johnny Cueto, Yovani Gallardo, Scott Kazmir, Mike Leake and Kenta Maeda, among others.
Spending additional cash (and in some cases, surrendering another draft pick) after signing Zack Greinke may not have been ideal for Arizona, but the cost would have been far less than what the team paid for a solid-but-unspectacular starter—and the team's short- and long-term futures would look even brighter.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
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