Australian Open 2016 Men's Semifinals: Federer vs. Djokovic Preview, Prediction
Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer will meet for the 45th time when they clash in the semifinals of the 2016 Australian Open.
Both won their quarterfinals matches in straight sets. Djokovic defeated Kei Nishikori, while Federer blew by Tomas Berdych.
That sets up the blockbuster semifinal most people expected to see as soon as the draw was revealed. Djokovic has been dominant. Federer remains relentless. They've met in the finals in the last two Grand Slams.
No disrespect to the other members of the Big Four—Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal—but Djokovic vs. Federer has become the premier rivalry of the moment. It represents arguably the greatest player of all time and his effort to keep today's most dominant star from taking a bite out of his legacy.
It marks Federer's 12th semifinal appearance and 80th victory at the Australian Open. But the most important number for the Swiss is 18. Winner of 17 Grand Slam titles, Federer last hoisted a winning trophy at a major in 2012 at Wimbledon.
After his win over Berdych, Federer spoke with reporters about his pursuit of that elusive additional Slam title.
"It's part of the reason why I guess I'm still playing," he said. "I feel like I'm competitive at the top. I can beat all the guys on tour. It's nice now that in the last three Slams that I've been as consistent as I have been."
He'll have to be more than consistent if he wants to boot Djokovic from his comfy seat as champion of the Australian Open.
Who Has the Historical Edge?
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They've split the head-to-head at 22 each.
Djokovic has won five of the last seven. More importantly, he's won their last three meetings at a major tournament.
They are 4-4 in their last eight meetings on hard courts.
After defeating Djokovic in an early round-robin match at the ATP World Tour Finals in November, Federer spoke to reporters about how difficult an opponent the world No. 1 is: "He wasn't as good as in the first set. But I feel, honestly, with the way he's played this season, you still have to put him away. It's not an easy thing to do."
It won't get any easier in Melbourne, where Djokovic has won four of the last five Australian Opens.
Federer at the Australian Open
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Except for the third-round match against Grigor Dimitrov, Federer has yet to drop a set at this year's Australian Open.
Federer breezed past Berdych in the quarterfinals, 7-6 (4), 6-2, 6-4. Behind spectacular serving, the 17-time Grand Slam winner proved on point against the veteran Berdych.
"I think he's still on a pretty high level, playing great tennis. ... He's just proving how great a player he is, how difficult at this time it is to play him. To face Roger in the quarters, it's quite difficult," Berdych told reporters in the post-match interview.
Alexandr Dolgopolov presented a tricky challenge in the second round, but Federer had no trouble eliminating the Ukrainian, 6-3, 7-5, 6-1. The Swiss hit 25 aces and won 88 percent of his first serves.
After the win, Federer considered this a tough early test, per the ATP official website: "I'm very pleased with this win. I think it's a tough second round. In my opinion, he's better than a lot of the guys who are ranked ahead of him."
Djokovic at the Australian Open
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The fourth-round match against No. 14 Gilles Simon proved to be the most difficult for Djokovic.
For reasons unknown, the world No. 1 decided to try his hand at improving his drop shot. It was disastrous. In fact, it was so bad that one fan yelled to him after the match, "No more drop shots."
Although Djokovic defeated Simon 6-3, 6-7 (1), 6-4, 4-6, 6-3, the grueling five-setter served as a wake-up call.
He'd make no such mistakes against Kei Nishikori in the quarterfinals. Behind nearly flawless tennis, Djokovic cruised by his fleet-footed opponent, yielding just two breaks.
The tie also showed that Djokovic's unforced-error issue against Simon was no anomaly. It was the second straight match in which the Serb had more unforced errors than winners.
Djokovic's percentage of first-serve points won has been on a steady decline since his first-round match. He's fallen from a tournament-best 89 percent to just 65 percent against Nishikori, per the official Australian Open website.
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The Biggest X-Factors
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Federer's nerves are a big X-factor. It may seem odd that on-court jitters would be a factor with a guy who has won more than 1,000 career matches. However, against Djokovic, the jitters have crept into the Swiss' game in the past.
The most notable was the 2010 U.S. Open when Federer served at match point. Djokovic rifled a forehand winner past his opponent and changed the momentum. Federer never recovered. He made 65 unforced errors in that match.
The following year, Djokovic beat Federer in the U.S. Open again. Stunned by Djokovic's repeat performance, Federer tried to make sense of his inability to close the Serbian out. Per the Guardian, he said: "It's awkward having to explain this loss because I feel like I should be doing the other press conference."
Another X-factor will be how Djokovic manages his unforced errors. Against Simon in the fourth round, he committed an uncharacteristic 100 unforced errors. He had only 27 against Nishikori.
Federer Will Win Australian Open Semifinal If...
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Federer has to remain committed yet cautious when it comes to his aggressive style. Charging toward the net usually yields positive results. However, against Djokovic, the world No. 3 must pick the right moments and avoid getting beat on passing shots.
He must also win more than 80 percent of his first serves. Serving well helps Federer ease into a rhythm. It steadies his nerves and puts pressure on the returner.
Federer won more than 80 percent of his first serves in all but one match. That was the third round, the only time he dropped a set.
The serve is also key to keeping points short. Federer can't afford to get into long rallies with his supremely fit opponent.
Of course, Federer could benefit from Djokovic's losing concentration. If that opportunity presents itself, the 34-year-old must pounce, get a lead and maintain it.
Djokovic Will Win Australian Open Semifinal If...
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Djokovic has to keep pressure on Federer's serve. He also must hit deep returns to make his opponent think twice about attacking the net.
Although Djokovic is agile and athletic, he must avoid relying on his fitness to outlast Federer. Instead, the world No. 1 must play aggressive too and force the Swiss to respect the return game.
Djokovic is clearly in Federer's head, and he need only rest there comfortably to reach the final.
Prediction
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Although the head-to-head is even, Djokovic has the advantage over Federer. He's younger, faster and more explosive. He's riding a three-match winning streak against the world No. 3 in Grand Slams.
With their last two meetings in majors as a reminder, Djokovic can play knowing that even if he drops a set or gets behind, he can storm back against Federer.
During their match at the ATP Finals in London, Federer displayed the type of tactics it takes for him to defeat Djokovic. But that was a best-of-three encounter. In Melbourne, where Djokovic rules Rod Laver Arena, Federer must top the Serb in a best of five.
That's not going to happen. Djokovic wins in four sets.
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