Ranking MLB's 1-2 Starting Pitcher Combos as Spring Training Approaches
Great starting pitching wins championships, and more than a few times over the years, a team has rode a pair of aces to a World Series title.
Generally a starting rotation is judged by the collective abilities of all five guys, and oftentimes the sixth and seventh guy up, as depth is paramount over the course of a 162-game season.
But what if we were to judge teams based only on the two starters fronting their respective staffs?
Ahead we've done just that, ranking all 30 MLB teams by the two pitchers who are projected to begin the season in the top two spots in the rotation.
Note: The fact that we're basing this off projected Opening Day rosters is important to note for at least one team, as players expected to start the year on the disabled list were not considered here.
Nos. 30-26
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30. Colorado Rockies
With a 48-16 record and 4.16 ERA in 88 career starts at Coors Field, Jorge De La Rosa is one of the few pitchers who has managed to find consistent success at altitude.
Chad Bettis quietly enjoyed a breakout season of sorts in 2015 after pitching to a 9.12 ERA in 21 appearances out of the bullpen the previous season. He wouldn't be a No. 2 starter anywhere else, but he's capable of being a solid starter.
29. Philadelphia Phillies
Aaron Nola pitched well in 13 starts as a rookie, but a couple of shaky outings in September where he allowed a combined 12 earned runs in nine innings of work inflated his ERA. In his other 11 starts, he was 6-1 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.078 WHIP, and he'll now step into the role of staff ace.
Jeremy Hellickson was added, along with Charlie Morton, to eat innings and hopefully provide a potential trade chip if he can improve on his 2015 performance. He's never matched his Rookie of the Year performance, but he can be a solid innings eater.
28. Atlanta Braves
After going 14-13 with a 2.89 ERA and making the All-Star team in 2014, Julio Teheran took a big step back this past season. Provided he can bounce back, there's a good chance he'll be the next Braves player on the move come July.
A number of pitchers could seize the No. 2 starter job, but Matt Wisler looks like the best of the bunch at this point. The 23-year-old was the key piece acquired from the San Diego Padres in the Craig Kimbrel deal.
27. Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers have a wealth of young starting pitching but no clear-cut ace to lead their staff going forward. Jimmy Nelson pitched well in his first full season in the league last year and looks like the prohibitive favorite to earn the Opening Day nod.
Wily Peralta looked like the team's best young arm heading into the 2015 season, but he struggled. Taylor Jungmann opened eyes with a strong rookie performance, so he slides into the No. 2 spot in his sophomore season.
26. Cincinnati Reds
His numbers didn't jump off the page by any means, but right-hander Anthony DeSclafani quietly had a rock-solid rookie season for the Cincinnati Reds last year. He's best suited as a middle-of-the-rotation workhorse, but he's likely earned the role of staff ace.
That's a role he may not have for long if Raisel Iglesias can build off a strong debut. The Cuban defector posted a 3.13 ERA, 0.896 WHIP and 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings over his final nine starts while holding opponents to a .178 average—and he could be in for a breakout season.
Nos. 25-21
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25. Minnesota Twins
A mediocre starting rotation was the biggest downfall of a surprisingly competitive Minnesota Twins team last year, and they'll be counting on the same stable of arms once again in 2016.
Phil Hughes failed to match his big 2014 season but was still a solid starter with fantastic command. Kyle Gibson continued his emergence as a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter with some upside, and he should earn the No. 2 starter spot over Ervin Santana.
24. Baltimore Orioles
Chris Tillman has earned the Opening Day start each of the past two seasons, and despite a disappointing 2015 season, he'll likely front a weak rotation once again. He's a No. 3 starter on a good staff but the de facto ace here.
It was a tale of two halves for Ubaldo Jimenez, who went 7-4 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.281 WHIP before the All-Star break and then 5-6 with a 5.63 ERA and 1.465 WHIP in the second half. Which pitcher will show up in 2016?
23. Kansas City
The 2015 season did not produce the breakout performance the Kansas City Royals were hoping for from 24-year-old Yordano Ventura as he assumed the role of staff ace in place of the departed James Shields. He did round into form down the stretch, closing out the year at 7-1 with a 2.38 ERA over his final 11 starts.
The two-year, $20 million deal the team gave Edinson Volquez proved to be one of a handful of solid additions the Royals made last winter. He followed up a strong regular season by posting a 3.77 ERA in five postseason starts.
22. Toronto Blue Jays
With David Price gone and no front-line starter added to replace him, the responsibility of leading the rotation for a Toronto Blue Jays team with legitimate World Series aspirations will fall to Marcus Stroman.
The 24-year-old has electric stuff, and as long as he can keep his emotions in check, there's no reason he can't be one of the breakout stars of 2016.
Meanwhile, the decision to trade for R.A. Dickey was a regrettable one for the Blue Jays due to the talent they gave up. But he's averaged 218 innings in his three seasons with the team and brought some stability to the rotation, if nothing else.
21. Los Angeles Angels
Garrett Richards missed the start of the 2015 season recovering from knee surgery, but by the end of the year, he was once again the team's best starter. With a normal offseason of rest, he'll look to push back toward his 2014 form when he went 13-4 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.038 WHIP.
Veteran Jered Weaver is not the pitcher he once was, and he's coming off a mediocre 2015 season. But he's just a year removed from going 18-9 with a 3.59 ERA. Young left-hander Andrew Heaney could seize the No. 2 starter spot with a step forward, but for now it still belongs to Weaver.
Nos. 20-16
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20. Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers could challenge for a spot in the top five in these rankings once Yu Darvish returns from Tommy John surgery, as he'll team with deadline addition Cole Hamels to give the team a pair of legitimate aces.
However, with Darvish not expected to be ready for Opening Day, we have to rank them based on Derek Holland being their No. 2 starter—and that obviously costs them more than a few spots.
Holland is capable of being a solid starter, but he's had trouble staying on the field in recent years, and he struggled in limited action last season while missing significant time with shoulder issues.
19. Oakland Athletics
The presence of Sonny Gray as a bona fide ace atop vaults the Oakland Athletics into the top 20 in these rankings, but the rest of their rotation behind the 26-year-old star is a significant question mark.
Either Jesse Hahn or veteran free-agent signing Rich Hill will be asked to step into the role of No. 2 starter that was filled by Scott Kazmir before he was traded at the deadline last year.
The 26-year-old Hahn isn't flashy, but in what amounts to a season's worth of starts over the past two years, he's gone 13-10 with a 3.23 ERA, 1.188 WHIP and 134 strikeouts in 170 innings.
18. New York Yankees
The New York Yankees one-two punch of Masahiro Tanaka and Luis Severino has a chance to be top-10 caliber, but there are undeniable question marks.
The health of Tanaka as he continues to pitch through a partially torn UCL and the progression of the 21-year-old Severino as he enters his first full season are far from sure things.
Tanaka was not nearly as sharp this past season compared to his rookie performance, while Severino will need to take a big step forward to counter what appear to be some clear regression red flags.
17. Boston Red Sox
The most glaring hole for the Boston Red Sox last season was their lack of a true ace atop the rotation, and they addressed that need with the addition of David Price on a seven-year, $217 million deal this winter.
Meanwhile, Rick Porcello struggled early in his first season with the Red Sox but rebounded to post a 3.53 ERA and 1.290 WHIP after the All-Star break.
If Porcello can duplicate that performance over a full season, Clay Buchholz can stay healthy and young left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez can take a step forward, the Red Sox rotation could have more than a few viable No. 2 starter options.
16. Miami Marlins
Jose Fernandez did not make his 2015 debut until July 2 as he rehabbed from Tommy John surgery, but once he did, he quickly regained his elite form.
The 23-year-old has yet to lose a game at home, going 17-0 with a 1.40 ERA in 26 career starts at Marlins Park, and another offseason removed from surgery, he should be a legitimate Cy Young candidate.
Backing him in the rotation will be left-hander Wei-Yin Chen, who was signed to a five-year, $80 million deal after a good run in Baltimore. Moving to a pitcher's park should benefit him, though he held his own in cozy Camden Yards.
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Nos. 15-11
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15. San Diego Padres
The San Diego Padres have been listening to offers on their starting pitchers since the trade deadline last year, and they have drawn significant interest on Tyson Ross, James Shields and Andrew Cashner, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports. They've yet to find a deal to their liking, though.
Ross will once again front the staff, as he's quietly emerged as one of the best pitchers in the National League. Over the past two seasons, he's gone 23-26 with a 3.03 ERA, 1.259 WHIP and 9.4 K/9.
Shields was a big investment on a four-year, $75 million deal near the end of last offseason, and while he didn't have his best season in 2015, he did reach the 200-inning mark for the ninth consecutive year.
14. Houston Astros
Entering the 2014 season, Dallas Keuchel (9-18, 5.20 ERA) and Collin McHugh (0-8, 8.94 ERA) were pretty far off the radar as far as impact or even passable starting pitchers are concerned.
Since then, Keuchel (32-17, 2.69 ERA) has emerged as a bona fide ace, while McHugh (30-16, 3.39 ERA) has given the Astros a solid starter to complement him atop the rotation.
Another step forward from Lance McCullers, and he could step into the No. 2 starter role. But for now the one-two punch of Keuchel and McHugh will be counted on to help the team contend once again.
13. Los Angeles Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke would have been an easy choice for the top spot in these rankings last year, but with Greinke on to Arizona and no front-line starter added to replace him, they fall outside the top 10.
The additions of Scott Kazmir and Kenta Maeda, a full season of Alex Wood and a healthy Hyun-jin Ryu gives the Dodgers far more depth than they had last year. But none of those pitchers comes close to Greinke in that No. 2 starter role.
Kershaw had a season that was somewhat overlooked last year alongside brilliant performances from Greinke and Jake Arrieta on the NL side of things, but it would have won him Cy Young honors most years.
12. Seattle Mariners
King Felix hit a few bumps in the road last year, struggling in June (2-3, 5.51 ERA) and August (3-2, 6.60 ERA), but when he was at his best, he was again arguably the best pitcher in the American League.
Rejoining him atop the rotation is Hisashi Iwakuma, who appeared ready to join the Los Angeles Dodgers in free agency before issues with his physical caused that deal to fall apart. He wound up back in Seattle on a one-year, $12 million deal with a pair of option years.
Iwakuma has gone 47-25 with a 3.17 ERA in four seasons with the Mariners, but ideally young right-hander Taijuan Walker would supplant him in the No. 2 starter role in the very near future.
11. Detroit Tigers
| Justin Verlander | 20 | 5-8 | 3.38 | 3.49 | 1.088 | 32/113 | 133.1 | 2.2 |
| J. Zimmermann | 33 | 13-10 | 3.66 | 3.75 | 1.205 | 39/164 | 201.2 | 3.5 |
Justin Verlander has not been a truly dominant starter for a full season since 2012, but he showed flashes down the stretch last year when he went 4-3 with a 2.30 ERA and 0.938 WHIP over his final 10 starts.
He'll now be joined by free-agent addition Jordan Zimmermann, who was signed to a five-year, $110 million deal early in the offseason.
Zimmermann was often overshadowed by teammates in Washington, but he's quietly gone 66-43 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.135 WHIP over the past five seasons. Throw in a healthy Anibal Sanchez, and the Tigers rotation has a chance to be a real weapon.
Nos. 10-6
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10. Tampa Bay Rays
Chris Archer signed a six-year, $25.5 million extension prior to the 2014 season that could wind up being an eight-year, $45.5 million deal if his two options years are exercised.
After a breakout performance this past season, that's arguably the best contract of any pitcher in baseball. It's also a huge boon for a small-market Tampa Bay Rays team that has struggled to keep star talent.
Matt Moore, Drew Smyly and Alex Cobb are all capable of pitching like No. 2 starters if they're healthy and clicking, but for now that role belongs to Jake Odorizzi, who could be in line for a breakout season of his own after a strong showing in 2015
9. St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals relied on the young duo of Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha last season with Adam Wainwright missing significant time, and it's really a flip of the coin as to who should be considered the No. 2 starter between those two guys.
Martinez had the better numbers last year and has the higher ceiling going forward, but he also shut down before the end of the regular season with a shoulder strain, so that will be something to keep an eye on.
As for Wainwright, the 34-year-old missed the bulk of 2015 with a freak Achilles injury but returned strong down the stretch, and there's no reason to think he doesn't have at least a few front-line seasons left in the tank.
8. Chicago White Sox
Arguably the most underrated duo in all of baseball, left-handers Chris Sale and Jose Quintana have been two consistent bright spots for an otherwise disappointing Chicago White Sox team the past several seasons.
Sale saw his ERA spike from 2.17 to 3.41 last season, but that was largely a result of pitching in front of one of the league's worst defensive teams, as his 2.73 FIP was actually tops in the American League.
Meanwhile, Quintana has now put together three straight seasons with at least 200 innings pitched, an ERA under 2.60 and a WHIP under 1.300. His 12.9 WAR during that span ranks fifth among all left-handed starters.
7. Arizona Diamondbacks
When the offseason began, the Arizona Diamondbacks would have found themselves near the bottom of these rankings with the duo of Patrick Corbin and Rubby De La Rosa slated to front the rotation.
That was before they signed Zack Greinke away from a pair of division rivals with a six-year, $206.5 million deal and then gave up a ton to acquire Shelby Miller in a trade with the Atlanta Braves.
Still just 25 years old, Miller is capable of taking another step forward, and if he does, the Diamondbacks could climb their way into the top five in these rankings. For now, they fall just short.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
After teasing his front-line potential his first two seasons in the league, Gerrit Cole officially emerged as one of the game's truly elite starters last season.
The 25-year-old was particularly good against the Cubs (4 GS, 2-1, 2.13 ERA) and Cardinals (4 GS, 3-1, 2.39 ERA), and performance against division rivals is something that can't be overstated when you're talking about the value of an ace.
Francisco Liriano was re-signed on a three-year, $39 million deal last offseason that now looks like an absolute steal considering how the pitching market has evolved. He's not quite a second ace, but he's as good as any No. 2 starter around.
5. Chicago Cubs
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2015 Stats
Overview
After a solid first half that left him as one of the bigger All-Star snubs, Jake Arrieta pitched out of his mind in the second half, going 12-1 with a 0.75 ERA in 15 starts.
That's the best second half by a starting pitcher in baseball history, and he somehow took things to another level down the stretch when he went 8-0 with a 0.27 ERA and 0.552 WHIP in his final nine starts.
To put that another way, he allowed a grand total of 30 hits and two earned runs over his final 67 innings of work. Those aren't just video game numbers, those are video game numbers put up by someone who is really, really good at video games.
Then there's Jon Lester, the $155 million man who was expected to lead the Chicago Cubs staff last year.
On the surface, his season was a disappointing one due to the huge expectations heaped on him at the beginning of the year. However, his 2.92 FIP was good for eighth in the National League, and he reached the 200-inning mark for the seventh time in the past eight years.
The left-hander was 7-4 with a 3.04 ERA in 14 starts after the All-Star break, and he also took things up a notch down the stretch when he went 3-2 with a 2.36 ERA in six September starts.
4. San Francisco Giants
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2015 Stats
Overview
The San Francisco Giants began the offseason in desperate need of some quality starting pitching depth to slot behind Madison Bumgarner, who is undoubtedly one of the best pitchers in the game.
Somehow still only 26 years old, Bumgarner led the league in complete games (four) and threw two shutouts while eclipsing the 200-inning mark for the fifth consecutive year.
Any speculation that he could struggle after logging so many innings during the 2014 postseason was quickly put to rest, and when the dust settled, he finished sixth in NL Cy Young voting.
At this point, there's no reason to think he won't put together another season with 200-plus innings, an ERA under 3.00 and a WHIP under 1.100 while striking out 200-plus batters. Those are elite numbers, and there's no doubt Bumgarner is an elite starter.
Joining him will be the free-agent duo of Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, who give the Giants a chance to boast one of the best rotations in baseball—if they can pitch to their potential.
Cueto struggled down the stretch after joining the Kansas City Royals at the trade deadline but rebounded with a pair of brilliant postseason starts, including a complete game two-hitter in Game 2 of the World Series.
There are some questions about his long-term health when looking at his six-year, $130 million deal, but as long as he stays on the field, he should give the Giants a deadly one-two punch.
3. Washington Nationals
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2015 Stats
Overview
One year later, that seven-year, $210 million deal the Washington Nationals gave to Max Scherzer doesn't seem nearly as ridiculous when you watch Zack Greinke land a six-year, $206.5 million deal.
The 31-year-old was brilliant over the first two months of the year, going 6-3 with a 1.51 ERA before leveling off a bit. But overall it was another great season for the 2013 AL Cy Young winner.
His 276 strikeouts were overshadowed by the 301 racked up by Clayton Kershaw, and coupled with just 34 walks, he led the NL with an 8.12 K/BB ratio.
Then there's Stephen Strasburg, who remains an enigma of sorts.
He struggled mightily to begin the year, pitching to a 5.16 ERA over his first 13 starts, before landing on the disabled list on July 4 with an oblique injury.
The 27-year-old returned with a dominant start on Aug. 8 when he allowed just three hits and one run while striking out 12 over seven innings, and he was a different pitcher the rest of the way.
Over his final 10 starts, he went 6-2 with a 1.90 ERA, 0.754 WHIP and 12.5 K/9.
This may be a bullish ranking of the Nationals duo considering what a question mark Strasburg is, but with the right-hander heading into a contract year, that Cy Young-caliber performance may finally be upon us.
2. Cleveland Indians
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2015 Stats
Overview
Fans of traditional counting stats would be quick to call Corey Kluber a bust this past season after he went from winning AL Cy Young honors to leading the American League with 16 losses.
However, a closer look at the numbers shows that Kluber was dominant once again and the clear ace of a terrific Cleveland Indians rotation.
His 2.97 FIP and 4.2 WAR were both sixth in the AL, and his 245 strikeouts were third. He tallied double-digit strikeouts eight different times, including an 18-strikeout gem against the St. Louis Cardinals in May when he allowed just one hit over eight innings.
The 29-year-old signed a five-year, $38.5 million extension with a pair of option years last offseason, and he'll once again be asked to anchor the Indians staff.
Kluber won't be shouldering the load by himself, though, as the emergence of Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar gives the team three legitimate front-line arms.
Carrasco, who was acquired all the way back in 2009 as part of the return package from the Philadelphia Phillies for Cliff Lee, built off a strong second half in 2014 to establish himself as one of the best starters in the American League.
Over a nine-start span from July 30 through his second-to-last start of the season, Carrasco went 4-3 with a 1.88 ERA, 0.754 WHIP and 11.3 K/9.
He may not be able to put up those kind of numbers over a full season, but he's capable of another step up from his final 2015 line.
1. New York Mets
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2015 Stats
Overview
The crazy thing about the New York Mets taking the top spot in these rankings is that it wouldn't be at all surprising to see Noah Syndergaard wind up outperforming both Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom this coming season.
The big right-hander went 9-7 with a 3.24 ERA, 1.047 WHIP and 166 strikeouts in 150 innings as a rookie, and if he takes another step forward, he could quickly emerge as one of the best pitchers in the National League.
For now, we'll still take the duo of Harvey and deGrom over any other one-two punch around, as those two are both legitimate ace-caliber starters.
Questions about how well Harvey would perform in his first season back from Tommy John surgery were quickly put to rest as he again settled in as a dominant starter.
That being said, he still wasn't quite as overpowering as he was pre-injury, and another year removed from the operation, he could be even better in 2016.
As for deGrom, his Rookie of the Year performance in 2014 came as something of a surprise, but he proved it was by no means a fluke as he followed it up with a seventh-place finish in NL Cy Young voting.
He then followed up his terrific regular season with three brilliant starts in the playoffs before a shaky outing in Game 2 of the World Series.
Add a full season of Steven Matz, the ageless wonder Bartolo Colon and a midseason return by Zack Wheeler, and the Mets starting pitching is scary good.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted.
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