MLB Divisional Power Rankings After Wave of Offseason Movement
The offseason isn't over. Just ask Yovani Gallardo, Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler and the small boatload of other free agents still drifting on the open market.
The biggest names, however, have fallen off the board along with a lot of the smaller ones. And, concurrently, the balance of power has shifted across both leagues.
David Price went to Beantown. Zack Greinke jumped from one National League West contender to another. Chris Davis and Yoenis Cespedes stayed put. Jason Heyward packed his bags for Chicago. Justin Upton cruised into the Motor City. And so on.
With less than three weeks before pitchers and catchers report, where do things stand? Let's take stock with some updated divisional power rankings. Meaning, we're ranking the six divisions in ascending order of clout.
We'll include the projected standings for each team in each division, courtesy of FanGraphs, but other factors—including competitive balance, star wattage and a dollop of gut feeling—will be considered as well.
The next few weeks could change the picture slightly. But as we impatiently await the start of actual baseball, here's the shape of the MLB landscape, division by division.
No. 6: American League West
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Projected Standings
Houston Astros (86-76)
Seattle Mariners (84-78)
Texas Rangers (82-80)
Los Angeles Angels (81-81)
Oakland A's (79-83)
Notes
There's a difference between balance and mediocrity, and right now, the AL West is trending toward the latter.
The upstart Houston Astros return mostly intact after winning a wild-card slot and pushing the eventual champion Kansas City Royals to five games in the American League Division Series. In fact, they added a young stud closer in Ken Giles. And despite the loss of lefty Scott Kazmir, AL Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel still fronts the rotation.
The Texas Rangers, division champs last year, also may lose a key rotation piece in Gallardo, though they should be getting Yu Darvish back from Tommy John surgery.
The Seattle Mariners have had an active offseason under general manager Jerry Dipoto as they look to improve upon their dud of a 2015 season. And, indeed, they're projected for an eight-win bump after adding ancillary pieces like Nori Aoki and Wade Miley.
The Oakland A's revamped a bullpen that ranked 28th in baseball with a 4.63 ERA last season, but they still look like a .500 team at best.
Speaking of which, the Los Angeles Angels—who traded for slick-fielding shortstop Andrelton Simmons but haven't gotten lineup protection for Mike Trout—are projected to finish a perfectly mediocre 81-81.
Mostly, the AL West has been an afterthought this winter, with all five clubs seemingly content to tinker around the edges of their rosters and avoid major expenditures. That's not a terrible strategy in a division where 85 wins could get it done, but it doesn't inspire much excitement.
No. 5: National League East
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Projected Standings
Washington Nationals (88-74)
New York Mets (86-76)
Miami Marlins (81-81)
Atlanta Braves (67-95)
Philadelphia Phillies (66-96)
Notes
This is a two-horse race between the New York Mets and Washington Nationals.
The NL champion Mets return with arguably baseball's best, deepest starting rotation and a lineup that will now boast Cespedes for a full season.
The Nats have a new second baseman in former Met Daniel Murphy, though they've lost other key pieces, including righty Jordan Zimmermann and center fielder Denard Span.
Most essentially, they have a new skipper in Dusty Baker, who will try to reverse the toxic atmosphere that poisoned the Washington clubhouse and culminated in an ugly dugout altercation between closer Jonathan Papelbon and NL MVP Bryce Harper.
The Miami Marlins have had a confusing winter (surprise, surprise). First, trade talk swirled around budding ace Jose Fernandez and outfielder Marcell Ozuna. Then, the Fish inked left-hander Wei-Yin Chen, suggesting they're going for it. Whether baseball's most dysfunctional franchise will get there is another matter, though the pairing of hitting coach Barry Bonds and basher Giancarlo Stanton should be worth the price of admission.
At the bottom of the heap, the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies are in full rebuild mode and could each plausibly lose 100 games.
No. 4: American League Central
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Projected Standings
Cleveland Indians (84-78)
Detroit Tigers (82-80)
Chicago White Sox (81-81)
Kansas City Royals (79-83)
Minnesota Twins (78-84)
Notes
You could make the same balance/mediocrity argument with the AL Central that we just made with the AL West. One key difference? FanGraphs' projection is grossly underestimating the Kansas City Royals.
Yes, Kansas City lost Ben Zobrist and Johnny Cueto, last season's trade-deadline cavalry. But by retaining Alex Gordon and inking reliever Joakim Soria, the Royals kept the core of their recent success—a high-contact offense, strong defense and a shutdown bullpen—intact.
They could use another starter, sure, and could still add one from the remaining options. But even if they stand pat, it says here the reigning champs will be an October force again in 2016.
After that, it's a cluster of possible challengers. The Cleveland Indians are shaky on offense but pitching-rich. The Detroit Tigers have added an ace-level arm in Zimmermann and an impact bat in Upton. The Chicago White Sox acquired slugging third baseman Todd Frazier to boost their lineup. And the young Minnesota Twins will look to build on last season's ahead-of-schedule breakout.
If the Royals actually regress to the projection, this becomes baseball's most mediocre, up-for-grabs division. If they don't, it's one clear front-runner followed by a gaggle of flawed-yet-intriguing contenders.
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No. 3: National League West
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Projected Standings
Los Angeles Dodgers (90-72)
San Francisco Giants (86-76)
Arizona Diamondbacks (79-83)
Colorado Rockies (74-88)
San Diego Padres (74-88)
Notes
The Los Angeles Dodgers lost Greinke but added Kazmir and Japanese import Kenta Maeda to a rotation anchored by Clayton Kershaw. There are some questions on offense, particularly in the crowded outfield, but overall, the three-time defending NL West champs remain the nominal division favorite.
The rival San Francisco Giants will be nipping at their heels after signing Jeff Samardzija and Cueto to augment their starting five and adding Span in the outfield.
The Arizona Diamondbacks, meanwhile, are hoping to make it a lively three-team scrum after luring Greinke to the desert and acquiring Shelby Miller to support an offense featuring Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock.
The San Diego Padres, last winter's big mover and shaker, made their biggest headlines by shipping out closer Craig Kimbrel. The Colorado Rockies, likewise, could soon shed key pieces, including outfielder Carlos Gonzalez.
No. 2: National League Central
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Projected Standings
Chicago Cubs (94-68)
St. Louis Cardinals (84-78)
Pittsburgh Pirates (83-79)
Cincinnati Reds (73-89)
Milwaukee Brewers (71-91)
Notes
Like a cup of coffee, the NL Central features great stuff on top and dregs on the bottom.
The Chicago Cubs are the darlings of the offseason after adding five-tool outfielder Jason Heyward, veteran right-hander John Lackey and jack-of-all-trades Zobrist to an already-loaded young roster.
The St. Louis Cardinals lost Heyward to their longtime foil, but they added Mike Leake to the rotation. And, simply put, they're the Cardinals, a club that's put together eight straight winning seasons and shows no signs of abating.
Heyward, recall, said the Cardinals' aging core was part of the reason he chose to defect to Chicago. To which St. Louis skipper Mike Matheny replied, per Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch: "I don’t think we have anything to apologize for in having a group like a [Matt] Holliday, a [Yadier] Molina, [an Adam] Wainwright. Those are the kinds of guys everybody wants on a club."
So there's your main narrative: the Cards versus the Cubbies. But don't forget the Pittsburgh Pirates, winners of three consecutive wild-card slots. The Bucs lost A.J. Burnett to retirement but added left-hander Jon Niese and one-time Pirate Ryan Vogelsong as rotation insurance. And they've still got a solid lineup built around perennial MVP candidate Andrew McCutchen.
As for the dregs, the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers are among the ranks of the rebuilding. And, thanks to the unbalanced schedule, they should offer plenty of opportunities for the top three squads to feast. Don't be surprised to see at least three 90-win teams and possibly a 100-win team come out of the Central again.
No. 1: American League East
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Projected Standings
Boston Red Sox (91-71)
New York Yankees (86-76)
Toronto Blue Jays (84-78)
Tampa Bay Rays (82-80)
Baltimore Orioles (77-85)
Notes
Here's where competitive balance tips the scale.
The remade Boston Red Sox now have Kimbrel and Price paired with an offense that finished among the top 10 in runs, batting average and slugging percentage. Add rising stars like Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts, and you've got the makings of another worst-to-first revival.
Then again, that proclamation itself could be bad news for Boston, as Tim Britton of the Providence Journal outlined:
"Indeed, as much as any other team in the league, Boston has been befuddled by the gap between offseason projections and on-field performance. The Red Sox were supposed to be a 100-win behemoth in 2011; they missed the playoffs. They were supposed to contend in 2012; they finished in last. They were supposed to be out of it in 2013; they won the World Series. They were supposed to be in the thick of the American League East each of the last two seasons; they finished last each time.
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Who might bump Boston from its projected pedestal? Start with the defending division champion Toronto Blue Jays, who lost Price but still own the most potent offense in baseball.
Or how about the New York Yankees, who haven't cut any cartoonish checks but have added second baseman Starlin Castro and flame-throwing closer Aroldis Chapman via trade.
Don't count out the small-budget Tampa Bay Rays, either, with their superlative starting pitching. And while the Baltimore Orioles have questions in the rotation after losing Chen to Miami, they brought back slugger Chris Davis to pair with budding superstar Manny Machado.
Any team in the AL East could contend for a playoff spot or even the division crown, and no one would bat an eye. Each club has flaws (who doesn't?), but from here, this is baseball's deepest division.
Of course, that could all go up in a puff of smoke, as Red Sox owner John Henry elucidated.
"You have to feel good about this season. In all honesty, I felt good about last season," Henry said, per Britton. "If there's one thing we've learned in the last few years, especially in the American League and probably both leagues, it's getting more and more difficult to predict anything."
On that note, is it spring yet?
All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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