Australian Open 2016 Women's Final: Williams vs. Kerber Preview and Prediction
And then there were two at the 2016 Australian Open.
To the surprise of virtually no one, Serena Williams will play for the Melbourne title a seventh time, her 26th overall appearance in a Grand Slam singles championship. Her opponent? First-time major finalist Angelique Kerber.
No pressure, Kerber—you're only facing one of the greatest champions in the sport's history.
On paper, Williams has the clear edge. But Kerber has played high-quality tennis all tournament, winning her last 14 sets. The lefty's game is clicking, and she's put unrelenting pressure on servers with her deadly return game.
So does the German have a chance to pull off an upset?
Here is a breakdown of how each woman reached this point and what to expect in the year's first Grand Slam final. After two weeks of sizzling play, it's all come down to this moment.
Williams at the 2016 Australian Open
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Even after missing several months at the end of last year and withdrawing from the Hopman Cup to open this season, Williams hasn't missed a beat.
In what could've been a trap matchup in the first round against tricky Camila Giorgi, Williams passed that test with flying colors, earning a tough 6-4, 7-5 win. The following five rounds went even smoother for the six-time champion.
She dispatched Su-Wei Hsieh, Daria Kasatkina and Margarita Gasparyan in the middle stages, barely breaking a sweat as she cruised through each of those opponents.
Williams booked a quarterfinal clash with archenemy Maria Sharapova, and she couldn't resist the urge to dish out an 18th straight defeat to the Russian. Like so many of their previous meetings, this one ended in a Williams route.
Agnieszka Radwanska had plenty of momentum heading into their semifinal showdown, but Williams came out firing on all cylinders, taking the first set 6-0. In a little over an hour, she sent Radwanska home packing.
Kerber at the 2016 Australian Open
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In reaching a maiden Grand Slam final, Kerber is on the best run of her career.
The third time was the charm for her after all, with her 7-5, 6-2 win over Johanna Konta, giving the German her first victory in three major semifinal appearances. From the beginning of that match, she was all over Konta's serve and made her pay for costly unforced errors.
Throughout this past fortnight, Kerber has played clean tennis, limiting her own mistakes while capitalizing on on other's misfortunes. That consistency coaxed errors out of aggressive players like Victoria Azarenka, whom Kerber denied in the quarterfinals.
Her other wins came against Misaki Doi, Alexandra Dulgheru, Madison Brengle and Annika Beck. Only Doi managed to take a set off Kerber—and that came in the first round. Since then, Kerber has been full steam ahead.
Who Has the Historical Edge?
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Are you sitting down? Because Williams has a decisive head-to-head advantage against another top-10 player.
OK, that's not exactly a shocker. The world No. 1 controls essentially everyone she comes into contact with over an extended series. Williams is just that good; even other highly ranked foes are under her thumb.
In her series with Kerber, Williams is 5-1, with the sole loss coming in Cincinnati during 2012. In those five wins, she's rolled through Kerber in straight sets.
Their most recent meeting came in the 2014 Bank of the West final. Williams won that match 7-6 (1), 6-3, gaining strength as the match progressed.
So clearly, Kerber is already facing an uphill battle.
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Biggest X-Factors?
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Williams' record in Grand Slam finals is absurdly good. In 25 appearances, she's 21-4. Let that sink in.
Not only has she reached this stage so many times, but Williams also has way more often than not saved her best for these matches. In fact, the world No. 1 is 8-0 in major finals the last four seasons.
Staggering numbers. And that's the mighty task facing first-time finalist Kerber: finding a way to stop that imposing train from winning another championship.
There will be an intimidation factor when Williams steps on the court; she knows how to handle the situation, and her presence alone can strike doubt into Kerber.
The German's best tool right now is her return game. She's broken serve at least five times every match–a trend she'll hope continues once more.
Williams Will Win If...
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If Williams imposes her force like we've seen so many countless times, this title will belong to the defending champion.
Only being passive could doom Williams, but don't expect to see her be anything but aggressive. She'll take the fight directly to Kerber, with her powerful shots being the deciding factor.
We've never really seen a player in women's tennis history with as refined an offensive arsenal as Williams. Her groundstrokes are sublime and potent, but the serve is where she draws energy.
Though Kerber is a great returner, Williams can negate that strength with aces and keeping a high percentage of first serves in play. By limiting the looks Kerber gets on her second serve, Williams can reach the finish line.
Kerber Will Win If...
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As mentioned, Kerber's best weapon right now is her ability to break serve.
She's broken opponents a whopping 33 times so far in the tournament. For a player who doesn't possess a lethal serve herself, that ability to make others pay on that shot has been her recipe for success.
But doing so against Williams will be much more difficult. Kerber likely won't see as many break-point opportunities, so it's critical for her to make the most of the few available.
During rallies, Kerber can't try to overpower Williams; that's a losing proposition. She needs to be consistent and mix up her approach to keep the top seed from settling into a comfort zone. Here's where her lefty shots could throw Williams off, at least initially.
Other intangible elements could carry Kerber to victory. The biggest one? How she handles the pressure of her first Grand Slam final. If she can keep her cool, Kerber will give herself a chance to land the upset.
Prediction
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All tournament long, a sense of destiny has loomed over this event like a cloud. The forecast? A seventh Australian Open title for Williams.
Just three Grand Slam wins away from tying Margaret Court's record, Williams' motivation entering this season was clearly high. She's playing with a sense of purpose, trying to rewrite the history books. And after all these years, we should know better than to pick against a determined Williams.
Sure, Kerber has played some phenomenal tennis to reach her first major final. But her reward is a cruel twist of fate as she's running headfirst into a buzzsaw.
Maybe she can win a set if the reigning champion isn't at her absolute best. Even in that scenario, it's almost impossible not to envision Williams with the title in her hands.
Prediction: Williams in straight sets
All statistics are courtesy of WTATennis.com unless otherwise noted.
Joe Kennard is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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