NFL Draft 2016: Analyzing 1st-Round Mock Projections After Bowl Games

The 2016 NFL draft is interesting for many reasons but perhaps most of all for its outstanding depth.

While early in the process, it doesn't look like there's an absolute can't-miss player who organizations would kill to trade up for in the first round. Really, it doesn't look like a quarterback will come off the board first, either, barring someone giving up a mother lode to the Tennessee Titans.

Those traits make the class and the upcoming path it will travel more interesting than those before it. Much will change, but right after bowl season, here's how things figure to play out based on team need, prospect standing and more.

2016 NFL Mock Draft

Pick	Team	Player	Position	School
1	Tennessee Titans	Laremy Tunsil	OT	Ole Miss
2	Cleveland Browns	Jared Goff	QB	California
3	San Diego Chargers	Ronnie Stanley	OT	Notre Dame
4	Dallas Cowboys	Joey Bosa	DL	Ohio State
5	Jacksonville Jaguars	Jalen Ramsey	CB/S	Florida State
6	Baltimore Ravens	Mackensie Alexander	CB	Clemson
7	San Francisco 49ers	Myles Jack	LB	UCLA
8	Miami Dolphins	Reggie Ragland	LB	Alabama
9	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	DeForest Buckner	DE	Oregon
10	New York Giants	Jaylon Smith	LB	Notre Dame
11	Chicago Bears	Jack Conklin	OT	Michigan State
12	New Orleans Saints	Paxton Lynch	QB	Memphis
13	Philadelphia Eagles	Taylor Decker	OT	Ohio State
14	Oakland Raiders	Vernon Hargreaves III	CB	Florida
15	Los Angeles Rams	Carson Wentz	QB	North Dakota State
16	Detroit Lions	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	Ohio State
17	Atlanta Falcons	Shilique Calhoun	DE	Michigan State
18	Indianapolis Colts	A'Shawn Robinson	DT	Alabama
19	Buffalo Bills	Jarran Reed	DL	Alabama
20	New York Jets	Shaq Lawson	DE	Clemson
21	Washington	Laquon Treadwell	WR	Ole Miss
22	Houston Texans	Robert Nkemdiche	DL	Ole Miss
23	Minnesota Vikings	Michael Thomas	WR	Ohio State
24	Cincinnati Bengals	Emmanuel Ogbah	DE	Oklahoma State
25	Pittsburgh Steelers	Kendall Fuller	CB	Virginia Tech
26	Seattle Seahawks	Noah Spence	DE/LB	Eastern Kentucky
27	Green Bay Packers	Sheldon Rankins	DT	Louisville
28	Kansas City Chiefs	Corey Coleman	WR	Baylor
29	Denver Broncos	Jason Spriggs	OT	Indiana
30	Arizona Cardinals	Leonard Floyd	LB	Georgia
31	Carolina Panthers	Eli Apple	CB	Ohio State

Analyzing Notable Projections

10. New York Giants: Jaylon Smith, LB, Notre Dame

Jaylon Smith's stock will only fall so far after the devastating knee injury he suffered in Notre Dame's bowl game on New Year's Day.

Prospects like Smith don't come around often. That might sound like hyperbole—some sort of crazy exaggeration to keep a reader's interest—but it's the truth. The NFL demands linebackers capable of applying pressure and dropping into coverage well, or they'll be yanked from the field and never be an every-down starter.

NFL.com's Albert Breer reinforced the idea, per a conversation with a college scouting director:

"

One AFC college scouting director projected his floor, without seeing his medicals, to be the Colts' pick at No. 18. "He's fast, athletic, instinctive and versatile," the scouting director said. "He can close quickly against the run and shows very good athletic ability and speed in coverage." When asked for a weakness, the scouting director sarcastically texted, "Knee injury." 

"

Not convinced? Here's a comparison from Bleacher Report's Matt Miller:

If the New York Giants have their way, Smith won't make it to No. 18.

There's a rather large amount of needs in New York, but fixing a defense that ranked 30th by allowing 27.6 points per game on average, not to mention sitting 24th at 121.4 rushing yards allowed, looks like the priority.

And while Smith might not do that right away, learning from Jon Beason while he recovers from knee and ankle injuries isn't such a bad idea. He'll be the defensive centerpiece upon his return.

22. Houston Texans: Robert Nkemdiche, DL, Ole Miss

Robert Nkemdiche's stock isn't dead, either.

Nkemdiche finished his career with a suspension from Ole Miss thanks to an off-field issue, but as the process moves along and teams see both his workouts and potential good interviews, his stock will soar back up.

As it should.

Nkemdiche might remind some of Leonard Williams, last year's No. 6 pick who went to the New York Jets. He's 6'4" and 296 pounds with elite burst off the snap and the moves after the fact to terrorize quarterbacks. Not only that, he started his career on the outside at an end spot before moving inside, making him scheme-versatile.

Many would argue the Houston Texans don't need another interior player. Vince Wilfork's around, and they have Christian Covington, a high-upside reserve.

But recall that Wilfork is 34 years old. This is also the Texans, a Bill O'Brien-led team that takes the best player available over perceived needs—which is why the Texans hit the playoffs this year with Brian Hoyer under center and Jadeveon Clowney merely observing.

At No. 22, Nkemdiche is easily the best player on the board. And who wants to complain about pairing him with J.J. Watt?

(Andrew Luck just raised his hand, by the way.)

25. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kendall Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

It's always a good idea to draft a Fuller. 

This year the focus mostly resides on Virginia Tech corner Kendall Fuller, who has elite size at 6'0" and 196 pounds and made it clear with the Hokies that he can play press coverage well and come up against the run in physical fashion. (He also has three brothers playing in the NFL.)

ESPN's Mel Kiper summed up the latest Fuller quite well, as captured by Mike Barber of the Richmond Times-Dispatch:

Formerly known as a defensive powerhouse, the Steelers could use Fuller's skill set.

Pittsburgh almost became a punchline for its 30th-ranked pass defense this season that allowed 271.9 passing yards per game and placed an unnecessary burden of production on a hobbled Ben Roethlisberger. It even helped players such as Cincinnati backup AJ McCarron look competent. 

Fuller enters the fray right away and helps reinforce a spot boasting William Gay and Cortez Allen (on IR), among others, if not helping out at safety if the coaching staff wants to deploy him there.

And that's why a team takes Fuller in the first round. He's proven, versatile and ready to contribute, not to mention he has the most upside of any player from his family to enter the draft to date.

Stats courtesy of NFL.com and are accurate as of January 22. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.