Are Premier League Clubs Waiting to Spend in January or Saving for the Summer?
Given the virtual monsoon of rumours after the transfer window closed last summer, one would have expected more action than what has transpired three weeks into January.
As presently constituted, Jonjo Shelvey moving from Swansea City to Newcastle United for £12 million is the biggest Premier League deal, and Norwich City, spending upwards of £22 million, are the window's biggest spenders—that's not exactly what was promised (or "reported," to be more accurate).
"Disappointing" is the word. We get hyped into thinking deals are going to fly off the shelves, and three-quarters into January, mostly nothing—no disrespect to Mr. Shelvey and/or Norwich City supporters.
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Arsene Wenger told reporters regarding the January window, via the Daily Mail's Jack Bezants, in late December: "'I'll be busy, that's for sure. I am already busy and I said already one month ago, we are a bit short to deal with all the competitions we face, especially in midfield. We will be busy, yes.'"
His midfield directive was accurate. The Gunners bought Mohamed Elneny from Switzerland's FC Basel for £5 million, via BBC Sport, but one purchase and "we will be busy" do not exactly mesh.
Considering Arsenal were the only team in Europe's five major leagues who did not buy an outfield player last summer, this move seems a progression towards depth. With Francis Coquelin injured, however, Wenger's hand was rather forced.
None of the other five major clubs in England (Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur) have made any permanent signings for this season, with players entering their first team.
This distinct lack of activity creates two questions and two scenarios.
Why are clubs saving their money? And when are they going to spend it? Those are the two questions.
The scenarios, though, are slightly more nuanced. Either the Premier League's heavyweights are saving their funds until the latter stages of January, nearer the deadline, or they are electing to skip this window altogether and try their luck in the summer.
The latter is a risky proposition; the homestretch is not yet near, but it must be accounted for. Any injury or suspension between now and May, to a crucial member, can cripple a team's chances of completing their seasonal ambition. Not planning forward and buying in areas of need is a gamble most clubs are not willing to make.
One's issue, however, is options are more than scarce in January.
Few clubs are willing to sell cheaply, if at all, so loans of bit-part players are increasingly more prevalent. Finding players on the market who can enter your first team and effect change are few and far between. The summer window is more open, has more time and does not interfere with a campaign's progression as much.
If the latter is true, and teams have their targets but are waiting until the last possible moment to scoop whatever talent they can find, dangers exist there as well. You never know how an outside party will react to a new environment, be it a new dressing room, a new manager and/or a new league.
Some managers and technical directors prefer giving new signings a five-month crash course in new surroundings, like a head-start before the next season, but this doesn't always translate to long-term success.
Premier League clubs have the funds to buy most players, but timing and environment are crucial factors to the success or failure of a transfer.
In stable environments, like Arsenal, a player like Elneny knows his role from the start and can assimilate accordingly. At other places, take Chelsea, for example, without a permanent manager, their board must sign players it thinks will help their next manager—whomever that is—which takes time, possibly too much time to get deals done in 31 days.
Clubs fighting relegation, or feeling in need of a second wind (apparently Norwich, Newcastle and even Bournemouth) have taken to the window with all the money they can find, hoping it will be enough to keep them afloat and in the richest domestic footballing league on Earth.
Clubs with international and/or world-class players growing on trees, though, have a more balanced approach they must take in January. In a season where it looks as if four, possibly five, clubs could somehow win the league, tampering unnecessarily does not appear wise.
One can expect a few deals bigger than £12 million to go through before the deadline, but every pound saved in the winter will have a summer target earmarked.
*Stats via WhoScored.com; transfer fees via Soccerbase where not noted.
