Australian Open 2016: Americans with the Best Chance of Reaching Week 2
American tennis is not exactly ready to invade the 2016 Australian Open. As the second round continues, there are a handful of players in both the men’s and women’s bracket, but only a few that could survive a third round and get into the early stages of the second week.
This is not your father’s or grandfather’s American field taking the baton from legendary Open era superstars like John McEnroe, Jimmy Connors, Pete Sampras, Andre Agassi, Chris Evert, Martina Navratilova, Jennifer Capriati and Lindsay Davenport.
Even Venus Williams, arguably the second greatest American tennis star of the past 15 years, already received her pink slip in the first round.
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Are there any Americans who are a lock for week two?
Which others might be able to sneak into the second week for a fourth-round match, before a likely loss and final salute to the Aussie crowd?
Men’s Draw
There are some nice early-round stories with the men, but as Wednesday play continues, a player like Denis Kudla would have to defeat No. 28 seed Andreas Seppi just for a shot at Novak Djokovic in the third round. That might be a one-percent chance of victory if we factor in the Serbian's odds in getting injured.
It’s only slightly easier for young upstart Noah Rubin, who defeated Benoit Paire in three impressive tiebreakers. A pick-em match with Pierre-Hugues Herbert could end things in hours or give him an enormous third-round obstacle in Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. A better chance than Kudla, but not enough for the second week.
Tim Smyczek also has his work cut out by trying to get through Viktor Troicki, who is coming off a title in Sydney. He would then have to upset Milos Raonic or Tommy Robredo. Snowflakes will sweep across the Rod Laver Arena before Smyczek sees the fourth round.
There are three seeded Americans, and they do have varying chances at the fourth round. No. 25 seed Jack Sock is rising as a familiar name outside of his big success with doubles the past two years, and he has a puncher’s chance at getting through two other power players.
The 23-year-old will be favored to defeat the dangerous but inconsistent Lukas Rosol. Then he would need to overcome 2014 Australian Open champion Stan Wawrinka. We think it could be close, so there’s a chance Sock could see the second week, but it’s less than likely.
No. 31 seed Steve Johnson has a better route on paper with trying to defeat clay-court lefty Thomaz Bellucci. Then he would need ice water in his veins to score an emotional win over retiring Aussie Lleyton Hewitt, or more likely having to defeat the king of mid-majors, No. 8 David Ferrer.
The only American man with the odds in his favor is No. 10 John Isner, who will live and die with his massive serve. The 30-year-old has Marcel Granollers for a probable win, but he must then get through the scrappier and aggressively minded Feliciano Lopez. The Spaniard has more game at net and hits a heavy ball. If he can crack Isner’s serve a few times, he could very well win this match.
For American tennis fans, it would be amazing if two men’s player got to the fourth round, but one player might be it. It’s also a strong possibility that the “Stars and Stripes” could all be sent packing before the second week.
Women’s Draw
The women have five surprise players holding on one match at a time, but none of them are likely to cross the upcoming Sunday.
- Lauren Davis is overmatched against superstar No. 5 Maria Sharapova unless the Russian continues to have injury problems.
- Nicole Gibbs would probably not survive Petra Kvitova’s power in the third round, if she even gets there.
- Madison Brengle could defeat Johanna Larsson, but she needs a career day to topple No. 7 seed Angelique Kerber for a possible third-round encounter.
- Vania King is very unlikely to upset No. 3 Garbine Muguruza if this third-round match comes to pass.
- Varvara Lepchenko could beat Lara Arruabarrena, but Alize Cornet would be a huge favorite in the third round.
Who can leap over the third-round wall? We really have two stars who can get it done.
Madison Keys could be the future of American women’s tennis, and she could possibly become one of the biggest stars in her sport. The 20-year-old already has the 2015 Australian Open semifinals on her resume. She boasts a big serve, a lot of baseline power and the hunger to become a top-10 player very soon.
It’s not going to be easy to match last year’s Melbourne run, but there’s still a strong chance she succeeds. Assuming she rips through second-round opponent Yaroslava Shvedova, Keys might have to play a nervy match against fading star Ana Ivanovic, seeded No. 20 but a big enough hitter with a lot of big-match experience.
Then the draw opens up for Keys without No. 2 Simona Halep. She should cruise to the quarterfinals and get another test if No. 9-seed Karolina Pliskova is also on a roll. From there, who knows, but Keys is the kind of dark-horse competitor who is very capable of having her breakout championship now.
Of course the closest thing to a lock in women’s tennis has been No. 1 Serena Williams, who is expected to keep winning majors. Serena certainly has a championship-or-bust mentality, so she’s going to put everything on the line, especially with naysayers who have been on the fence about her chances to win the title.
Serena has Daria Kasatkina for the third round, and she should cruise to the quarterfinals. From there, her work will really start with possible matches against either Belinda Bencic or Maria Sharapova.
The best part of Serena’s run for a title is seeing how much strength she has to match her drive. Can she stay fresh and physically sharp? Will she lock out all distractions and punish her nearest rivals in the latter stages of the second week?
Until other Americans like Keys step up a lot higher, Serena is still the one to watch.
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