Fact or Fiction on All of MLB Offseason Week 11's Free-Agency, Trade Rumors
It took far longer than anyone expected—nearly three months—but some of baseball's top free agents finally found homes over the past week. Some, like Chris Davis, returned to familiar territory, while others, like Wei-Yin Chen, Ian Kennedy and Justin Upton, will need time to learn the lay of the land in new cities.
Yet even with all that movement, there's still plenty of talent available at nearly every position, whether it be via free agency or trade.
Have those recent free-agent deals guaranteed a windfall for the top unsigned slugger? Can a team really have too much depth at a particular position? Will an All-Star who is still in his prime have his wish granted before Opening Day?
We'll tackle all of that and more in this week's edition of Fact or Fiction.
Fact: Milwaukee Has to Trade Jonathan Lucroy Before Opening Day
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Milwaukee isn't going to get exactly what it wants for Jonathan Lucroy, but the Brewers have little choice but to trade him before the 2016 season gets underway—and probably before we get too far into spring training.
Interested teams have undoubtedly low-balled 30-year-old general manager David Stearns, both due to his inexperience and the fact that Lucroy is coming off a down season that was book-ended by a pair of injuries, including a concussion.
According to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Stearns has rightfully stuck a high asking price on the All-Star catcher, due to his track record of success and team-friendly contract, which pays him less than $10 million total through 2017. But Lucroy's value isn't going to get much higher than it is now, even with a strong start.
"Teams right now want to buy low on Lucroy and acquire him for two full seasons. If the Brewers wait until the deadline, they're only selling one-and-a-half seasons of Lucroy. Teams won't be willing to pay as much," wrote CBS Sports' Mike Axisa.
Not only that, but barring a catastrophic injury, teams are loath to change starting catchers deep into the regular season. While there's no doubt Lucroy could succeed behind the plate for a new team at any point, it takes time for a catcher to learn a pitching staff—and for that staff to become comfortable with him.
There's also significant risk involved with the Brewers keeping Lucroy around. Should he get off to a slow start or suffer another injury, his trade value would be significantly lower. And then there's the fact that he doesn't want to be part of a rebuilding team.
"I want to win and I don't see us winning in the foreseeable future," Lucroy told Haudricourt earlier this week. "I want to go to a World Series. That's what all players want. Rebuilding is not a lot of fun for any veteran guy."
While Lucroy says he'd give it all he has if still wearing a Brewers uniform on Opening Day—and there's no reason to believe he wouldn't—that he's made public his desire to be traded could create some uncomfortable clubhouse dynamics and prove to be a distraction as the season rolls along.
Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports lists Oakland, Texas and Washington as the teams that had engaged the Brewers about a potential deal before walking away due to the asking price. All three clubs—the Rangers especially—have deep enough farm systems for the Brewers to leave satisfied with the deal they make.
Fiction: Colorado Doesn't Have to Trade an Outfielder
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We touched on Colorado's crowded outfield situation last week, but Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich continues to insist that, well, there's nothing to see here.
"I know it's popular to expect a trade, but it's tough to put odds on it right now," Bridich told the Denver Post's Patrick Saunders. "The last thing I want to do is apologize for bringing more talent into this organization. ... Having too much depth is a good thing."
He's not wrong—it's always better to have too many players to fill a position than not enough.
But with five outfielders now on the 25-man roster—Brandon Barnes, Charlie Blackmon, Corey Dickerson, Carlos Gonzalez and the team's newest addition, Gerardo Parra—and all but Barnes used to being in the lineup on a daily basis, a trade seems inevitable.
It won't be Parra, who as a newly signed free agent, isn't yet eligible to be dealt, and, if you believe Bridich, it won't be Gonzalez, whom he describes as a "cornerstone" of the franchise. That leaves Barnes, Blackmon and Dickerson, and Barnes has little in the way of trade value.
Given Colorado's perennial need for pitching and a handful of teams that are still looking for outfield upgrades, either Blackmon or Dickerson will be wearing a different uniform come Opening Day.
Fact: Miami Will Sign Another Veteran Starter
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Miami is still looking to add to its rotation after signing Wei-Yin Chen to a five-year, $80 million deal, and the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson is reporting that the Marlins are casting a rather wide net to find another veteran arm.
Jackson lists a pair of former Cy Young Award winners (Cliff Lee and Tim Lincecum) along with Doug Fister and former All-Star Alfredo Simon as pitchers the team has some level of interest in, though price will play a major part in the decision-making process.
It seems unlikely that Fister, who is seeking a two-year, $22 million deal, per ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick, would fit into the team's budget.
But pitchers like Simon, who is coming off a miserable season with Detroit (31 GS, 5.05 ERA, 1.44 WHIP) in which he made only $5.5 million, and Lincecum, who hasn't been worth his salary in years and is due a significant paycut from the $18 million he made last season, might.
If not them, veteran arms such as Bronson Arroyo, Chris Capuano, Kyle Lohse and Justin Masterson could also be options.
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Fiction: Yoenis Cespedes Will Land a Justin Upton-Like Deal
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Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal reports that Washington has extended an offer to the top free agent still available, Yoenis Cespedes, noting that the deal isn't believed to be as lucrative as the six-year, $132.5 million pact Justin Upton signed with Detroit.
Still, with Upton and Chris Davis (seven years, $161 million) getting paid over the past week, Cespedes is a lock to land his own $100 million deal, right? Wrong.
As one executive told Bleacher Report's Scott Miller, there are simply too many questions surrounding the slugger's makeup for a team to make such a sizable investment.
"There are a lot of yellow flags around him," the executive said. "Not the dark red ones, but caution flags. I don't think he is a star. He's a very good major league talent. But he disappears too often."
While the Nationals have been apt to make questionable decisions in the past (trading for Jonathan Papelbon and signing Rafael Soriano), even they recognize that paying that man his money doesn't mean those flags disappear.
In fact, you can't help but wonder whether an Upton-like deal would find Cespedes getting too comfortable and giving less than maximum effort more often because, hey, he's not playing for a new contract anymore.
There's no doubt that Cespedes will be paid well this winter. It's just not going to be on the level that his counterparts at the top of the free-agent class were.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
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