Revisiting Top CFB Players' 2015 NFL Draft Decisions 1 Year Later
With the 2015 college football season officially in the books, the sport's calendar is now transitioning to two important matters—recruiting and the NFL draft.
Departing college players will spend the next several months preparing for the draft and looking to push their stocks even higher in the final few events before the big weekend.
Early draft declarations for underclassmen who are already eligible to go pro have been rampant since the regular season ended, and more and more names—such as Clemson's trio of Shaq Lawson, Kevin Dodd and Mackensie Alexander, per the Independent Mail—are joining the list.
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For some, going pro early is an easy call, with the guaranteed money of a first- or a second-round pick waiting. Others have to gamble on their futures and hope they can do enough to get their stock where it needs to be.
Let's take a look back to this time last year, when plenty of the top players in college football where considering whether to declare for the NFL draft or stay in school.
Who made the right call, and who could've used another year?
No-brainers
The NFL Draft Advisory Board tweaked its grading system for underclassmen prior to last year's draft. Now players deciding whether they want to stay in school or go pro receive either a "first round," "second round," or "stay in school" grade.
"We want the kid to make an informed decision," NFL executive vice president Troy Vincent said in 2014, per Chris Burke of Sports Illustrated. "Use our resources, make an informed decision. Each institution has those resources for every prospect and every head coach. The numbers and the facts speak for themselves."
If the recommended target for declaring underclassmen is to get drafted in the first two rounds, then plenty of them made incredibly informed decisions last year.
Heisman-winning quarterbacks Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota went No. 1 and No. 2 in the 2015 draft, respectively. Both were Day 1 starters for their new teams, and both have legitimate chances to win Rookie of the Year, according to Chris Wesseling of NFL.com.
Five more underclassmen joined Winston and Mariota in the top 10 of the draft—former Florida defensive end Dante Fowler, Alabama wide receiver Amari Cooper, USC defensive lineman Leonard Williams, Miami offensive tackle Ereck Flowers and Georgia running back Todd Gurley.
Gurley was a Pro Bowler and a second-team All-Pro, while Cooper was a four-time Rookie of the Week. On a more somber note, No. 3 overall pick Fowler tore his ACL on the first day of the Jacksonville Jaguars' rookie minicamp and didn't play at all this season.
Other first-round picks include Michigan State cornerback Trae Waynes, Wisconsin running back Melvin Gordon, Missouri defensive end Shane Ray and Washington linebacker Shaq Thompson.
Alabama defensive back Landon Collins and Michigan wide receiver Devin Funchess were among the underclassmen who were solid second-round picks. Arizona State wide receiver Jaelen Strong, Indiana running back Tevin Coleman and Miami running back Duke Johnson were selected in the third round but still received valuable playing time in 2015.
While every year has horror stories about leaving school too early for the NFL draft, most of the big names who forgo their final college seasons make the right call.
Left too soon
According to Dane Brugler of CBS Sports, 24 of the 84 underclassmen who declared early for the 2015 NFL draft did not get drafted at all.
College football fans may recognize some of the names from that list—USC wide receiver George Farmer and TCU safety Chris Hackett are notables—but none of them were top players at the college level.
Two underclassmen who went early, though, received quite a bit of spotlight during their time on campus but fell into the latter rounds.
UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley redshirted before starting two seasons for the Bruins, so he faced the NFL draft question twice during his college career. As Bleacher Report's Dan Hope wrote in November of 2014, Hundley was the "most polarizing quarterback prospect" in the draft:
"A three-year starter with pro potential and a university degree, it makes sense for Hundley to move on to the next stage of his career. That said, some believe Hundley would be better served by returning to school for another season, as he still has not yet developed into an NFL-ready signal-caller.
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While some draft analysts pegged him as a second-day draft pick, others had him sliding even lower. The latter experts won out, as Hundley was drafted in the fifth round at No. 147 overall by the Green Bay Packers.
As Hope mentioned, Hundley already had his degree from UCLA and three years of experience under his belt. The Bruins also had 5-star quarterback prospect Josh Rosen, his eventual replacement, enrolling early for the 2015 season.
Still, sliding to the fifth round was far from ideal for Hundley and his football future. Another year at UCLA or a possible graduate transfer to another school would've given him more time to round out his skill set for NFL teams.
Gerod Holliman could have used more time at Louisville in order to fine-tune his game.
While the Thorpe Award-winning safety tied an all-time record with 14 interceptions in the 2014 season, Holliman did not win over those at the next level.
"He needs to go back to school," an unnamed NFL scout told Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. "He's horrible. He can't make a tackle to save his life. He's got pretty good instincts, but he's not that athletic."
While some analysts weren't as harsh on Holliman as that scout, the former Cardinal fell all the way down to the seventh round and the 239th overall pick. He was cut by the Pittsburgh Steelers before the season began and is now a practice squad member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Perhaps the worst aspect of Holliman's rough first year as a pro is that he was only a redshirt sophomore in 2014. He had two more years of college eligibility left.
But there's an exception to every rule, and Stefon Diggs was just that in 2015.
The former Maryland wide receiver left school early and was selected in the fifth round of the draft—a low spot for a declaring underclassmen.
However, Diggs finished the season better than some first-round selections and made plenty of teams regret passing on him in the draft.
He was second among rookies in yards and touchdown catches despite being inactive for the first four games of the year, according to Jeff Ermann of 247Sports.
Way to stay
Patience is going to pay off—literally—in the future for a good number of draft prospects that opted to stay in school for the 2015 season.
One of the players who saw his stock soar with one more year is Notre Dame defensive tackle Sheldon Day. According to Pete Sampson of Rivals, the Irish defensive lineman received a "stay in school" grade from the Advisory Board, and he listened.
In 2015, Day more than doubled his tackles for loss (7.5 to 15.5) and quadrupled his sack total (one to four) while anchoring an experienced Notre Dame defense.
"He wants to help this football team as a captain, and I think—he came back for a reason," Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly said in November, per JJ Stankevitz of CSN Chicago. "He came back so this would be his best year and help Notre Dame and help himself, and I think he's living up to all those things."
Day has jumped from "stay in school" to the No. 54 overall prospect in the latest big board from Bleacher Report NFL Draft Analyst Matt Miller.
Oklahoma defensive end Charles Tapper did something similar by staying with the Sooners for a College Football Playoff run. He rebounded from a rough 2014 season and is now Miller's No. 73 overall recruit.
The Michigan State duo of defensive end Shilique Calhoun and quarterback Connor Cook had strong seasons for the Big Ten champions. Both were projected to be somewhere around late-first round or second-round picks in 2015, and they kept their stocks strong this fall.
Georgia defensive end Leonard Floyd was a possible first-round pick heading into last year's draft process, but he decided to stay in Athens for one more season. Now, the first-round designation seems like a lock for the edge-rusher.
"You guys [the media] are too low on Leonard Floyd," a scout told Miller in early December. "He's going to be top 10 for us."
Stayed too long
These stories are rare, but they happen every now and then in college football—a player's stock soars ahead of the draft, and their decisions to stay in school don't pan out at all.
One of the biggest examples of this is the most famous name from last year's College Football Playoff.
Ohio State quarterback Cardale Jones only needed three starts to have NFL scouts salivating over his pro potential. He replaced the injured J.T. Barrett and showed a tremendous arm and power-running style during the Buckeyes' national title run.
Jones' future was one of the hottest debates during the first few cold days of 2015, and he decided to stay in Columbus and battle to become the Buckeyes' full-time starter.
The 6'5", 250-pound quarterback wasn't consistent in the first seven weeks of the season, and he was ultimately benched for Barrett. He didn't take a single snap during the final three games of the campaign.
As Miller told Bleacher Report Big Ten Football Lead Writer Ben Axelrod, Jones "would have easily been the third QB drafted" behind Winston and Mariota last year. His stock after the national title game couldn't have been any higher.
Now, Miller doesn't even have him as one of the top 10 quarterbacks in the 2016 class.
"If he interviewed well, I think he's still drafted," Miller told Axelrod. "But he's a project based on potential, and not being able to show that potential makes him a Day 3 [Rounds 4-7] guy."
Another breakout star of the 2014 season, former Auburn wide receiver D'haquille Williams' future turned south in an even bigger way this past year.
A former No. 1 JUCO prospect, Williams was a reception machine at Auburn, grabbing 45 passes in just 10 games for the Tigers. Analysts loved Williams' physical nature and massive catch radius, and he showed signs of possibly being picked in the first few rounds of 2015's draft.
Then the problems started arising for the wideout.
Williams, who was suspended for the Outback Bowl against Wisconsin and missed two games due to injury, made the surprising decision to stay in school. He was later suspended for the first part of fall practice and only had 12 catches for 147 yards in the first five games of the 2015 season.
Auburn dismissed the former star in early October, and reports emerged later that week that he punched multiple people in an altercation at a bar.
Now Williams is expected to be a late-round pick at best in 2016, according to NFL Media draft analyst Lance Zierlein (via NFL.com's Chase Goodbread):
"Tape says he should be drafted inside the first four rounds, maybe the first three, but his character and athleticism are going to probably make him a third-day guy (rounds 4-7). And if the Auburn staff can't support his character when scouts ask about it, he might not even get picked.
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That's a long way to fall for a talented wide receiver that had many buzzing this time last year.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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