Fact or Fiction on All of MLB Offseason Week 10's Free-Agency, Trade Rumors
Thanks to the folks over at MLB.com's Cut 4, we know that it's a fact that Miguel Cabrera of the Detroit Tigers had better odds of breaking Joe DiMaggio's 56-game hitting streak—and that the Mets' Bartolo Colon had better odds of hitting an inside-the-park home run—than any of us had of winning Wednesday's $1.6 billion Powerball jackpot.
It would be great if the rumor mill would follow suit and provide us with fancy graphics and odds for the speculation making the rounds to become fact. But such a fictional innovation remains nothing more than a dream.
That's where we come in, as we try to make sense of all the week's chatter.
Has a free agent's arrival guaranteed the departure of the face of a franchise? Will a contender sell low on the trade market to free up some cash? Could two of the biggest bats still available in free agency be to blame for going unsigned?
We'll tackle all of that and more in this week's edition of Fact or Fiction.
Fact: Colorado Is Going to Trade an Outfielder
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After Colorado signed free agent Gerardo Parra to a three-year, $27 million deal, it became inevitable that the offseason-long speculation surrounding the immediate future of Charlie Blackmon, Corey Dickerson and Carlos Gonzalez is going to result in a trade.
Even with the likes of Yoenis Cespedes, Chris Davis, Dexter Fowler and Justin Upton still available via free agency, there's no shortage of interest in the Rockies' trio. Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal tweets that Detroit has interest in one of the three, something his colleague Jon Morosi says holds true for Baltimore as well.
The Los Angeles Angels, meanwhile, seem to be focused on Blackmon to fill their hole in left field, according to the Orange County Register's Jeff Fletcher, who adds that the money due Gonzalez ($37 million through 2017) is too rich for the team's liking.
And there are sure to be other teams in need of another bat (Tampa Bay) or looking to fill a void created by a free agent defection (St. Louis) that, at the very least, will give Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich a call to see what he wants in exchange.
Fiction: Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Upton Will Get the Deals They Seek
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At the beginning of the offseason, a six-year, $150 million deal for Yoenis Cespdes or Justin Upton didn't sound outrageous, especially for Upton, who will be entering his age-28 season in 2016. But the pair remains unsigned two weeks into 2016, and it's becoming clear why.
Team Cespedes is looking for a six-year, $150 million pact, hears Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe, while an official of one team that has spoken to Upton's agent tells Bleacher Report's Danny Knobler that he's looking for a "long, long" contract, pointing to the asking price as too high for the current market.
Neither can look to the Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers or New York Yankees to drive up his price, as none of the financial behemoths is in the market for a high-priced outfielder. And none of the teams that needs a corner outfielder seem overly anxious to make such a significant investment—especially when there are options available via trade—like the trio in Colorado that we looked at earlier.
That's not to say there's a lack of interest in their services, however—at least when it comes to Cespedes.
Cafardo hears that Cespedes' Opening Day 2015 team, the Detroit Tigers, have some interest in a reunion, while MLB Network's Jon Heyman tweets that the New York Mets, his latest team, haven't completely shut the door on a return, albeit on a short-term deal. The Atlanta Braves are also on the periphery.
Upton's name has popped up in the rumor mill sporadically this winter, and it's safe to assume that those with interest in Cespedes would also look at Upton.
But the two sluggers are either going to have to lower their expectations—or bet on themselves with a one-year deal, testing the market again next winter when there may not be as many available options—before either one knows where he will be spending spring training.
Fact: Ian Desmond Will Wind Up in San Diego
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While Padres general manager A.J. Preller wouldn't name names, sources tell The San Diego Union-Tribune's Dennis Lin that free agents Ian Desmond and Alexei Ramirez are the two players San Diego is seriously considering to fill their void at shortstop in 2016.
But really, the Padres made their decision over a week ago—and Desmond is their choice.
"Preller is said to be an admirer of Desmond, not only because he fits the preferred profile (athletic, high upside, standout tools) but also because inside a clubhouse, few are as respected as the three-time Silver Slugger," Lin wrote last week.
That last part is significant, considering the relative youth on San Diego's roster. After Matt Kemp and James Shields, there's little in the way of veteran leadership. Also, Desmond could handle a position switch down the road, whether it be to third base or the outfield.
“We’ve gotten to a spot where we’ve looked at a lot of options through trades and free agency,” Preller told Lin earlier this week. “Things could come to a head in the next few days to a week.”
Signing Desmond won't be nearly as splashy a move as those that Preller made last winter, but it could ultimately be one of his better decisions, especially if he's able to rediscover his pre-2015 form that made him one of the game's premier shortstops.
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Fiction: The Cubs Can Land Rays' Arms Without Including Baez or Soler
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ESPN's Jim Bowden is the latest to report that Chicago and Tampa Bay have been discussing potential trade scenarios for much of the offseason. But the lack of progression is due to the Cubs' reluctance to deal Javier Baez, Jorge Soler or anyone else on their major league roster.
While the Rays' financial limitations force them to constantly reshuffle their roster, none of the players Chicago is believed to have interest in—relievers Brad Boxberger and Jake McGee and starters Alex Cobb and Jake Odorizzi—command an exorbitant salary in 2016.
Tampa Bay doesn't have to trade any of them. And with the Rays angling to contend in 2016, the Cubs need to make it worth their while. Including Baez or Soler would go a long way toward accomplishing that. A package built around prospects such as Albert Almora or Billy McKinney would not.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
Hit me up on Twitter to talk the Hot Stove League and all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
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