What Roger Federer's Loss to Novak Djokovic Means for French Open 2016

The Australian Open has historically been one of Roger Federer's best Grand Slam tournaments, and the 34-year-old Swiss star made another deep run in Melbourne before ultimately falling in the semifinals Thursday.

Federer will surely be encouraged with the 2016 French Open a few months away.

The Swiss master, who appeared in his 12th Australian Open semifinal in the last 13 years, lost in four sets (6-1, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3) to top seed Novak Djokovic at the Rod Laver Arena.

Aaron Favila/Associated Press/Associated Press

The rampant reigning champion dominated the veteran in the opening stages of the contest, but Federer got a foothold in the match by winning the third set.

In the fourth stanza, there were some glimpses of the usual Federer magic, as highlighted below by Eurosport UK TV, but an imperious Djokovic eventually prevailed.

"

A quite brilliant rally. Nothing more needs to be said. #AusOpen https://t.co/rcilXSKkqU

— Eurosport UK TV (@EurosportUKTV) January 28, 2016"

Since it's the first major of the year, the Australian Open tends to produce some funny results now and again. Even the top players in the world are still finding their forms, which can lead to big names crashing out much earlier than expected.

Federer, however, had both a strong end to 2015 and an encouraging start to 2016.

In his final six tournaments last year, the Swiss posted a 20-4 record, a run that included titles at the Western & Southern Open and Swiss Indoors Basel. In his first tournament of the new year, Federer advanced to the final of the Brisbane International, where he lost to Milos Raonic in straight sets.

As the tournament's Twitter account highlighted, the defeat was Murphy's law in action for him:

Federer was also battling the effects of a flu throughout the tournament.

"I've still got a cough and the throat is a bit weird," he said after his loss to Raonic, per CNN.com. "I've definitely got to make sure I get over it as quickly as possible."

Nevertheless, anything short of a quarterfinal appearance at the Australian Open would've been a major surprise for Federer.

Looking ahead to the French Open in May, little from Federer's performances Down Under offers any sort of negative indicator regarding his chances of winning a second title in Paris.

Luck will undoubtedly play a major role in Federer's pursuit of glory, as his odds improve greatly if he avoids Djokovic or Rafael Nadal. It's no coincidence his lone French Open title came when Nadal exited in the fourth round. It was also a few years before Djokovic hit the peak of his powers.

Bypassing a matchup against Djokovic and/or Nadal isn't enough for Federer at this point, either. His last three French Open exits came courtesy of Stan Wawrinka, Ernests Gulbis and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

Even at 34 years old, Federer remains a threat to win every major tournament on the ATP calendar. As he ages, though, his margin for error gets smaller and smaller, which makes him more susceptible to early-round upsets. Or in the case of his Brisbane International defeat to Raonic, he has a harder time recovering from a setback—such as flu-like symptoms—in the middle of a match.

Unless everything breaks right for Federer and he rolls back the years, he's likely to go another year without a title at Roland Garros.