Australian Open 2016: Predictions and Tournament Preview
Novak Djokovic and Melbourne go together like Reggie Jackson and October. Djokovic will be trying to win his fifth Australian Open title in six years, his sixth overall. Serena Williams will be going for a seventh title and 22nd Grand Slam.
The two No. 1s will dominate news when the 2016 Australian Open gets underway this week. Qualifying rounds began January 13. The first round starts Monday, January 18.
Last year, Djokovic and Williams won the singles titles. Each went on to win two more Grand Slams. This year, the two enter the tournament with huge points leads over the rest of the field.
Among the 128 players who will make up the main draw in each of the men's and women's fields, there will be true contenders, up-and-comers and, no doubt, a few sleepers.
The following is a preview of what to expect, who to watch and storylines to follow at this year's Australian Open.
The State of the Men's Game to Begin 2016
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It's Novak Djokovic's World and the Rest are Spectators
Djokovic rules and everyone else is playing catch up. That sums up the state of the men's game these days.
After winning three Grand Slams last year, Djokovic picked up right where he left off. Less than three months after winning the ATP World Tour Finals in London, Djokovic crushed Rafael Nadal 6-1, 6-2 in the finals at the Qatar Open in Doha.
In a post-match press conference (via ASAPSports transcripts), Nadal described the Serb's game as bordering on perfection."When I say perfect, is not one thing in particular. It's everything. If not, it's not perfect."
A seemingly unstoppable force, Djokovic has nearly double the points as No. 2 Andy Murray. It's the Djokovic era and the rest of the tour is hoping to slow down this locomotive. Derailment appears out of the question.
The Big 4 is Now 5
Federer, Nadal and Murray, charter members of the Big Four, are all ranked in the top five. But so is No. 4 Stan Wawrinka who has won two Grand Slams. Over the last two years, Wawrinka has won more Grand Slam titles than Nadal, Federer and Murray combined.
The Old Guard Stronger Than Young Guns
Despite Milos Raonic's impressive win over Federer in Brisbane, the so-called young guns look to be no match for the 30-something crowd.
Six of the top 11 players on the ATP Tour are in their 30s. Federer leads that group at age 34. Kei Nishikori, 26, is the youngest player in the top 10.
Nishikori, Raonic and Grigor Dimitrov are among a handful of players the ATP Tour labeled as young guns. That was back in 2012. One of them was supposed to have won a Slam by now. However, Djokovic and Murray, both 28, are playing at their peak. Wawrinka, 30, looks equally as solid. Even Tomas Berdych, David Ferrer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga—all in their 30s—remain in the top 10.
Men's Key Storylines at the Australian Open
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Will Djokovic Steamroll Competition En Route to Calendar Slam?
Djokovic came so close to winning the Calendar Slam, even closer than Serena Williams. He's playing at such a high level. Can he keep it up? That's the big question going into the Australian Open. The French Open will, of course, be his toughest challenge, but the quest starts here, in Melbourne.
Is Rafael Nadal Back in Championship Form?
Last year, Nadal struggled and dropped out of the top 10. But he responded late in the season, finishing in the top five. Does this mean Nadal is all the way back and ready to challenge Djokovic at Grand Slams?
If Doha was an indication, no, he's not. Still, you can't sleep on Nadal. Djokovic isn't the only player with a history of success in Melbourne. Nadal has reached the quarterfinals or better in all of his last eight appearances at the Australian Open.
Lleyton Hewitt's Farewell
The two-time Grand Slam Champion is set to play in his final Australian Open.
Nick Kyrgios told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation that younger Australian players look up to Hewitt: "He's definitely the leader of tennis in our country, so having him as Davis Cup captain moving forward is going to be really, really good."
Expect tears, tributes and many tender moments as Hewitt brings his 20-year career to a close.
Underrated Men's Players to Watch
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Nick Kyrgios
Kyrgios' off-court shenanigans distract from his talent and ability to take over a match. If he can tone down his theatrics and tune up his focus, Kyrgios could crash the veterans' party.
He's behaved himself in the off season. He was even Wawrinka's IPTL teammate. He won the Hopman Cup, teaming with Daria Gavrilova. But IPTL and Hopman Cup, while competitive, are more like exhibitions. It will be interesting to see how Kyrgios performs under Grand Slam pressure.
Bernard Tomic
Speaking of talented young Aussies, Bernard Tomic seems to be finding his groove. Like Kyrgios, Tomic has had his struggles with non-tennis issues. Currently at a career-high No. 17, Tomic is the No. 1-ranked Australian. With the emotional Hewitt goodbye hovering over the tournament, Kyrgios and Tomic could provide Aussie fans with even more to cheer about.
Benoit Paire
Benoit Paire joins Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gael Monfils and Richard Gasquet on the growing list of promising Frenchmen who aren't winning Slams.
But could the 6'5" Paire be the one to break through? The talented 26-year-old has the flair for the dramatic like compatriot Monfils and Tsonga's powerful groundstrokes. If Paire combines his dazzling shot-making with consistency, top seeds beware.
Jack Sock
The question "what's wrong with American men's tennis" has been asked so often it's become a mantra. Sock carries that burden with him every time he takes the court. Pressure on him is even greater than it is on 30-year-old John Isner, the highest-ranked American male.
That's because Sock, 23, has the tools and the game to go deep into the second week. He has a powerful serve, ridiculous forehand and net play honed in doubles. The biggest question mark has been his fitness.
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Top Men's Contenders
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Novak Djokovic
Dominant, consistent, aggressive and relentless, Djokovic is as complete a package as tennis has ever seen. Of his 2015 season, in which he finished 82-6 and came within one match of winning the calendar Grand Slam, Djokovic told the Daily Mail: "Overall it's been as close to perfection as I can get."
Andy Murray
Runner-up last year, Murray worked hard to fight his way to No. 2. The No. 1 ranking continues to elude Murray. With Djokovic playing at an insane level, Murray can forget about No. 1 for now. Instead, he must find a way to come up big against the other Big Four.
Murray comes into the Australian Open on the heels of leading Great Britain to its first Davis Cup title since 1936. His wife is expecting their first child. Fatherhood and fatigue are the biggest question marks for Murray.
Losing to a red-hot Milos Raonic is no cause for alarm for Federer fans. Federer uses tune-up tournaments to fine-tune his game. At his age, letdowns are more likely. However, Federer appears to be in a good place physically and mentally.
Stan Wawrinka
Wawrinka is the real wildcard among the top players. Somewhat of a Jekyll-and-Hyde player, Wawrinka goes on hot streaks in tournaments like few others. The way he dominated the 2015 French Open finals makes Wawrinka the most dangerous threat to Djokovic.
Rafael Nadal
Nadal has his confidence back. But perhaps the competition has become too stiff since he last dominated the tour. Along with trying to get past Djokovic, Federer and Murray, Nadal faces difficult days ahead against the likes of Nishikori, Raonic, Sock and Kyrgios, a bunch of youngsters with healthier knees and hungrier appetites.
Men's Predictions
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Generation Next Will Outplay the Next Generation
Dimitrov, Nishikori and Raonic are among the wave of players who are supposed to take over the sport after the Big Four loosen their grip on the Grand Slams. However, it will be the generation of players right behind them—Kyrgios, Dominic Thiem and Borna Coric—who will outshine them.
Tomas Berdych Gets Bounced Early
While not in the Big Four, Tomas Berdych has been a consistent performer throughout his career. He's reached the quarterfinals or better every year since 2011. He's made it to the semifinals the past two years. But this year Berdych will bow out in week one.
Novak Djokovic Will Win His 6th Australian Open
Nadal told reporters that Djokovic is playing in another stratosphere. Soaring so high above the competition, don't look for Djokovic to come down. He'll be challenged in the later rounds. However, Djokovic will continue his run on Grand Slams in Melbourne.
The State of the Women's Game to Begin 2016
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Injuries Mean Volatility at the Top
Unlike on the ATP Tour, the top of the WTA Tour is fluid and volatile. There has been a rash of injuries among the top players.
Serena Williams remains the player to beat. However, she limps into the 2016 Australian Open with little preparation. Williams has yet to complete an official match since she lost in the semifinals at the 2015 U.S. Open.
She withdrew from the Hopman Cup with a knee injury. Maria Sharapova and Simona Halep withdrew from Brisbane due to injuries. Sharapova reportedly hurt her forearm in practice and Halep was dealing with an Achilles issue.
Petra Kvitova and Agnieszka Radwanska withdrew from the Sydney International Tournament this past Sunday. Kvitova pulled out with a viral infection and Radwanska reportedly had a leg injury.
Sharapova's absence in Brisbane allowed Agnieszka Radwanska to move ahead of the Russian to No. 4. Two other players in the top 10, Flavia Pennetta and Lucie Safarova, won't even be competing in the Australian Open. Pennetta retired and Safarova announced her withdrawal due to bacterial infection.
Top Contenders Staging Comebacks
Meanwhile, former No. 1 Victoria Azarenka looks sharp and ready to reclaim her winning ways Down Under. She won Brisbane. Yet she's only ranked No. 17, which means she faces tougher matches early on.
Eugenie Bouchard and Sloane Stephens, both young players who fell from near the top to outside of the top 40 in 2015, had successful starts to this season. Stephens won in Auckland. Bouchard reached the quarterfinals at the Hobart International in Sydney and the Shenzhen Open.
The Youth Movement Advancing
Although Serena and Venus Williams continue to defy age, there's a youth movement underfoot. There are eight players in the top 20 who are 25 or younger. Halep, ranked No. 2, is only 24 and No. 3 Garbine Muguruza is only 22.
Belinda Bencic, 18, and No. 11 Karolina Pliskova, 22, both notched wins against top players last year.
It was just a few years ago, when Li Na won the Australian Open, that it seemed being 30 was some sort of prerequisite for winning a Slam. Beginning with Na's win at the Australian Open, women 30 or older have won six of the last eight Grand Slams.
Women's Key Storylines at the Australian Open
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Serena Williams' Quest to Tie Steffi Graf
After racking up accolades and awards in 2015, Williams and her run for the records will remain a big story. For years, Graf's 22 seemed unreachable, especially when Williams was struggling in her mid-20s.
Even after Williams lost at the 2015 U.S. Open, catching Graf seemed inevitable. Yet, with recent injury issues, winning one more Slam is no longer a given.
Serena Williams' Health
Williams' coach Patrick Mouratoglou has compared her chronic knee problems with those suffered by Rafael Nadal. If that's the case, Williams could be struggling with this all season. Whether she can stay healthy through the grinding two-week Slam will be a big story Down Under.
Victoria Azarenka's Attempt at Returning to the Top
Azarenka looked dominant at Brisbane, breezing through competition. The fast courts at the Australian Open are made for Azarenka's aggressive game. She's also playing with a chip on her shoulder. Vika looks irked at the idea that she's still ranked outside the top 10.
This time last year, Azarenka was ranked No. 42. In an interview with tennis.com's Matt Cronin, Azarenka spoke about being depressed in 2014. Last week, after winning Brisbane, Azarenka was upbeat when she spoke with Cronin: "Definitely a lot more comfortable, a lot more calm, a lot more aware. Happy. Very happy."
Women's Title Contenders
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Serena Williams
Unless Williams' knees are worse than she's letting on, Williams is the best player on the Tour. Before withdrawing from the Hopman Cup, Williams looked solid against Jarmila Wolfe. Williams declared herself fit and ready. She told the Herald Sun: "My body is feeling great now, obviously I had a hiccup but right now it is doing much better. I've had a few days of training so it's looking good."
Garbine Muguruza
The big-hitting Spaniard has some health issues too. She retired in Brisbane with a foot injury. Perhaps it was a precaution. If healthy, Muguruza has the game to challenge Williams and Sharapova. More importantly, Muguruza has that championship demeanor, allowing her to remain cool under pressure.
Victoria Azarenka
Although she remains ranked outside of the top 10, Azarenka might be playing better than any player on tour. Perhaps the second-best hard-court player in the women's game, Azarenka is as aggressive as ever. She's determined to return to No. 1.
Maria Sharapova
A semifinalist last year, Sharapova is always a top contender at Slams. You can't count out a player with five Grand Slams. Rust doesn't seem to ever be a problem for Sharapova. She skipped the U.S. Open but won both her matches during the Fed Cup final against the Czech Republic.
Simona Halep
It's hard to know what to expect from Halep. Her consistency and style of play should translate to better results in Grand Slams. However, Halep has a history of shrinking in big moments.
Underrated Women's Players to Watch
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Sloane Stephens
Stephens won the ASB Classic in Auckland New Zealand. It was her second WTA title in less than a year. She won the Citi Open last summer.
No longer playing with the pressure of being "the next Serena Williams," Stephens seems have matured on and off the court.
Garbine Muguruza
It seems odd to call a player ranked No. 3 underrated. Yet Muguruza is often overlooked while her contemporaries Bouchard and Stephens grab the headlines. Even with signature wins over Serena Williams and Radwanska at Grand Slams, Muguruza is just beginning to get the respect and attention worthy of a Slam finalist.
Belinda Bencic
The young Swiss player is the only teen in the top 50. Bencic plays with intensity and focus. Last year, she defeated Serena Williams en route to winning the Rogers Cup. Her on-court decision-making skills are those of a woman wise beyond her years.
Women's Predictions
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Caroline Wozniacki Goes out in Week 1
When people talk about Caroline Wozniacki, the conversation is usually about when or if she will finally win a Grand Slam. Yet the former world No. 1 ended 2015 ranked lower than where she started.
Now ranked No. 18 and with stiffer competition from a new generation of players, such as Bencic, Pliskova and Madison Keys, Wozniacki is primed for another early exit.
Victoria Azarenka Advances to the Semifinals
Azarenka spoke about being depressed about her game and struggling to get back to the top. Before winning at Brisbane, she was on a title drought. Now Vika has her mojo back and with it the confidence to propel her into the late rounds.
American Women Top Last Year's Achievements
Last year, three American women—Keys, Venus and Serena—reached the quarterfinals. This year the American women will perform even better. No, they won't put four women in the quarterfinals. However, there will be more Americans in week two.
Young American Samantha Crawford, who reached the semifinals in Brisbane, the resurgent Sloane Stephens, a rejuvenated Venus Williams and, of course, Serena will lead a strong contingent for Team USA.
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