Chiefs vs. Texans: Odds, Stat Predictions for 2016 AFC Wild Card Game

The Kansas City Chiefs and the Houston Texans have followed similar patterns to get to the playoffs. Both started off slowly and nearly saw their seasons swirl down the drain in the first half of the year.  

However, neither team was done in physically or emotionally by early-season problems, and both turned things around with dramatic second-half performances.

The Chiefs took it to an extreme with a 1-5 start, and it appeared it would get even worse because they lost All-Pro running back Jamaal Charles to a season-ending ACL injury.

However, neither head coach Andy Reid nor quarterback Alex Smith was willing to go along with a "woe is me" type of season.

After the Chiefs dropped an 18-17 decision to the Chicago Bears—the Chicago Bears!—in Week 6, they did not lose another game the rest of the season.

The Chiefs did it with a rather old-fashioned formula. They ran the ball effectively, and they did not turn it over. They also played well on defense.

Once Charles went out with his injury, it appeared the running game was not going to work in Kansas City. But backups Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware were both competitive and effective. Neither of these backs had Charles' speed (4.38 40-yard dash) or burst, but each ran with power and determination.

The Chiefs will need West (634 yards, 4.0 yards per carry) and/or Ware (403 yards, 5.6 YPC) to be effective against the Texans. They don't need to have monster games and dominate, but they do have to take some of the pressure off of Smith by picking up first downs in short-yardage situations and running with a purpose.

Smith has been quite efficient under center this season, completing 65.3 percent of his passes and compiling a 20-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The 31-year-old has built a strong rapport with wide receiver Jeremy Maclin, who has caught 87 passes for 1,088 yards and eight touchdowns.

According to RotoWire (via CBSSports.com), Maclin missed a day of practice earlier this week with a hip problem, and while he returned Wednesday, he may not be at 100 percent for this game. 

The Chiefs have the seventh-ranked defense in the league, and that's one of the biggest reasons they were able to turn their season around. They were giving up huge chunks of yardage during the first six weeks of the season, but the play of rookie cornerback Marcus Peters (eight interceptions and 33 passes defensed) helped turn the Chiefs into one of the best defensive teams in the league.

Defense is also the calling card of the Texans, and they played their best defensive game of the season when they held the AFC North champion Cincinnati Bengals to two field goals in a Week 10 Monday night 10-6 victory.

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The Texans have the third-ranked defense in the league, and with personnel that includes J.J. Watt, Brian Cushing, Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus, they should be dominant in that area.

However, the Houston defense had some unimpressive games early on, particularly when it was hammered 44-26 by the Miami Dolphins—Miami Dolphins!—in Week 7 as it made quarterback Ryan Tannehill and running back Lamar Miller both look like stars.

Watt had another sensational year, registering 17.5 sacks and batting down eight passes. He is capable of taking over any game and dominating.

Offensively, the Texans suffered a blow early in the season with the loss of talented running back Arian Foster, but they got some relief from backups Alfred Blue, Chris Polk and Jonathan Grimes. They have done just enough to help out quarterback Brian Hoyer, who has been effective with a 19-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 11 games.

Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is a game-changing player who can string tough catches together. The 23-year-old ranks with Antonio Brown of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Julio Jones of the Atlanta Falcons because he caught 111 passes for 1,521 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Prediction

The Chiefs not only take a 10-game winning streak into this contest, but they also beat the Texans in Houston, 27-20, in the season opener. While the tendency is to discount a game that came so early in the season, the Chiefs were clearly the better team that day, and Houston is going to have to play much better to win this game.

The Chief had a 35:19 to 24:41 time-of-possession advantage, and they also had two takeaways while not turning the ball over.

The Chiefs are three-point favorites, according to Odds Shark. They should be able to win this game by a touchdown or more.

Look for Smith to throw for at least 250 yards, with Maclin and tight end Travis Kelce doing most of the damage. Maclin will catch eight passes for 125 yards and one TD, while Kelce will catch four passes for 95 yards and a score.

Hoyer will throw for 300 yards, but much of that will come in the second half when the Texans are in a must-pass situation. Hopkins will catch 10 passes for 125 yards and a touchdown, but Peters will come up with one game-changing interception.

Kansas City 31, Houston 23