How Jaylon Smith's Injury Could Impact Notre Dame LB's Draft Stock

The 2016 Fiesta Bowl was supposed to be an opportunity for Notre Dame linebacker Jaylon Smith to showcase his talent prior to declaring for the NFL draft. Instead, the knee injury he suffered may end up derailing what appeared to be a clear-cut path to a top-10 selection.

It was quickly apparent that the injury Smith suffered was serious, as Bleacher Report's Mike Monaco shared an image of Smith on crutches shortly after the injury occurred:

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Jaylon Smith with Jack Swarbrick. pic.twitter.com/3GDZqja8Vr

— Mike Monaco (@MikeMonaco_) January 1, 2016"

On Wednesday, ESPN's Chris Mortensen reported that Smith suffered a torn ACL and MCL, and will undergo surgery on Thursday.

As of Wednesday night, no timetable had been given for a recovery, but some conclusions can be drawn based on the recovery process for other players with similar injuries.

The most recent draft prospect we can compare to Smith is St. Louis Rams running back Todd Gurley, who suffered a torn ACL in November 2014 before declaring for the 2015 NFL draft. Gurley was able to rehab in time to return to action on September 27, roughly 10 months after the initial injury.

The recovery process varies from person to person, so a 10-month recovery timetable is little more than an educated guess for Smith, but other aspects of Gurley's offseason may apply more directly.

Most notably, Gurley declined to participate in the medical checkup process at the NFL Scouting Combine in late February. The decision came on the advice of Dr. James Andrews, who feared further damage could be done to Gurley's knee during the medical checks so early in the rehab process.

Fortunately for Gurley, he was healed enough to submit to a medical check by NFL doctors in April, just in time for the draft.

Gurley's surgery was in late November, meaning his medical check finally came five months later. That's a timetable that doesn't work for Smith, who has less than four months to prepare for the NFL draft.

Even more concerning than the injury itself is the possibility that Smith may not be ready for a full medical evaluation prior to the draft. Without firsthand knowledge of where Smith stands in his recovery process, teams would likely be far more cautious in their placement of Smith on draft boards than they were with Gurley a season ago.

If Smith does submit to medical checks prior to the draft, however, it's possible that his draft stock could remain relatively unchanged.

In 2003, Miami Hurricanes running back Willis McGahee tore three ligaments in his knee during the BCS National Championship Game against Ohio State. His entire 2003 season was eventually wiped out by the injury, but he did heal enough to be evaluated prior to the draft, according to the Associated Press.

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

Despite knowing that McGahee essentially needed a redshirt season, the Buffalo Bills took him with the 23rd selection in the 2003 draft. He was the first running back off the board.

From a financial standpoint, Smith's draft status likely doesn't matter. According to ESPN's Darren Rovell, he has an insurance policy which will recoup any perceived losses based on the injury:

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Sources say Jaylon Smith financed the $50,000 insurance premium to pay for a $5M loss of value policy if he slipped the 2016 Draft

— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) January 2, 2016"

Assuming that a medical check shows Smith is on the road to recovery in April, he may not need to claim much from that policy.

Bleacher Report's Matt Miller updated his big board on Wednesday and still had Smith as his No. 1 linebacker and No. 2 overall prospect.

With such a high grade on Smith, at least a handful of NFL teams will likely be willing to gamble on his injury—even if he needs to sit out the 2016 season—for the possible reward of landing one of the premier linebackers in the league.