NFL Week 17 Picks: Top Experts' Predictions from Around the Web

The first Sunday of the new year will be a day of endings, not beginnings, for the vast majority of NFL teams. There are but two spots up for grabs in the 2016 NFL playoffs heading into Week 17. Already, 18 teams know that this is the last time this exact group of guys will play together.

But we're not here to focus on that. There are several games with playoff implications on the final regular-season slate. Division titles are up for grabs as are first-round byes.

There's hardly any way for fans of playoff-contending teams to look at Week 17 objectively—too much at stake. So for an impartial look at what might happen on the final weekend of regular-season action, here are the complete predictions by a few of the top NFL writers and experts from around the web.

Matchup	Mike Freeman, Bleacher Report	Pete Prisco, CBS Sports	Mike Garafolo, Fox Sports	Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN	Stephen White, SB Nation
New York Jets (10-5) vs. Buffalo (7-8)	NYJ	BUF	BUF	BUF	NYJ
New England (12-3) vs. Miami (5-10)	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
New Orleans (6-9) vs. Atlanta (8-7)	NO	ATL	ATL	ATL	ATL
Baltimore (5-10) vs. Cincinnati (11-4)	CIN	CIN	CIN	CIN	CIN
Pittsburgh (9-6) vs. Cleveland (3-12)	PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT
Jacksonville (5-10) vs. Houston (8-7)	HOU	HOU	JAX	HOU	HOU
Tennessee (3-12) vs. Indianapolis (7-8)	TEN	IND	TEN	IND	IND
Washington (8-7) vs. Dallas (4-11)	DAL	DAL	WAS	WAS	DAL
Philadelphia (6-9) vs. New York Giants (6-9)	NYG	NYG	NYG	PHI	NYG
Detroit (6-9) vs. Chicago (6-9)	DET	CHI	CHI	DET	CHI
Tampa Bay (6-9) vs. Carolina (14-1)	CAR	CAR	CAR	CAR	CAR
Oakland (7-8) vs. Kansas City (10-5)	KC	KC	OAK	KC	KC
San Diego (4-11) vs. Denver (11-4)	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN
Seattle (9-6) vs. Arizona (13-2)	ARI	ARI	ARI	SEA	SEA
St. Louis (7-8) vs. San Francisco (4-11)	STL	STL	SF	SF	SF
Minnesota (10-5) vs. Green Bay (10-5)	GB	GB	GB	GB	GB

Note: Picks courtesy of Bleacher Report, Fox Sports, CBS Sports, ESPN.com and SB Nation. All predictions are straight up, not against the spread.

Gunning for That No. 1 Seed: Carolina Panthers (14-1) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-9)

It would be really weird if Carolina somehow didn't get the No. 1 seed after winning 14 straight games to start the season. And yet it's a distinct possibility with No. 2 seed Arizona playing at home and just a game behind. Both teams have clinched first-round byes, but home-field advantage throughout can mean everything in the NFL playoffs. 

The Panthers are looking to respond to their first loss of the season, a deflating 20-13 upset at the hands (talons?) of the Atlanta Falcons.

The rushing game fared remarkably well with a combination of Cameron Artis-Payne, Fozzy Whittaker and Cam Newton running the ball in place of an injured Jonathan Stewart. Unfortunately, Newton couldn't supplement his ground game with his arm. The Falcons held Newton to just 142 yards passing, while Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones ravaged the Panthers' secondary to carry his team to a slim win.

All eyes will be on MVP-candidate Newton see how he responds after the down game. The new father had thrown 13 touchdowns in three weeks prior to the Falcons loss and tossed two against Tampa Bay without a pick in Week 4. An uptick in the passing attack is in order.

David Goldman/Associated Press

Tight end Greg Olsen is confident the team as a whole will step up.

''We won 14 games in a row for a reason,'' said Olsen, per Steve Reed of the Associated Press (via Yahoo Sports). ''Everybody just needs to relax. It's not the end of the world. We're disappointed that we lost. ... I don't think there's any added pressure. We have one last box to check, and that's what this week is about.''

Carolina surged its way to a victory against Tampa in Week 4, thanks to its marauding defense. Tampa Bay turned the ball over five times in that game. Jameis Winston threw four picks, two of them to stud cornerback Josh Norman. The Pro Bowl corner is determined to make up for a poor game against Jones.

“It took a toll on me to the point where I haven’t completely...I got over it. But I know me as a competitor and my drive, a sour taste left in my mouth,” Norman said Thursday, per Joseph Person of the Rock Hill Herald.  “I don’t like stuff as such. I feel as if we’ll come out better this week as a whole, as a group, as a defensive unit.”

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Even though Winston is several weeks wiser as an NFL quarterback, don't expect him to tear up the Panthers this time around. Wide receiver Vincent Jackson is on injured reserve. He reeled in 10 catches for 147 yards and a TD against the Panthers. Mike Evans is still a viable threat, but he's one Norman can neutralize. Winston could be forced to check down quite a bit in this game, which might not be all that terrible of an option, per FoxSports.com's Jeff Smith:

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The Panthers aren't "bad" in really any area defensively, but they have given up quite a few receptions to opposing backs. With one week remaining, Carolina has allowed running backs to catch 90 passes (tied for seventh-most), for 645 yards and three scores. With players like Martin and Sims in the backfield, there's no reason to think that Winston won't look to utilize the two playmakers early and often.

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That said, dinking and dunking a defense as good as Carolina's can only go so far. Linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis are excellent at sniffing out screens and keeping the play in front of them. Winston will have to make throws downfield, while Doug Martin can keep the pass rush honest with a strong rushing day. This team can put up another 20 points or so against Carolina, but that likely won't be enough.

Another game of workman-like performances from Artis-Payne and Whittaker, combined with an even adequate passing performance from Newton, should be sufficient to power the Panthers past the Bucs and earn them home-field advantage for the NFC side of the playoffs.

San Diego Chargers (4-11) vs. Denver Broncos (11-4)

Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

Depending on how Week 17 shakes out, the Denver Broncos can finish as high as the No. 1 seed and as low as No. 5. They'll need to beat San Diego and get an unlikely New England loss to capture the top seed. At the other end of the spectrum, a loss to San Diego coupled with a Kansas City win means the latter secures the AFC West, dropping the Broncos to the fifth seed. It seems more likely they end up somewhere in between. 

Denver beat San Diego 17-3 in Week 13. The offense managed just 10 points in that game, as a Philip Rivers pick-six greatly aided their efforts. 

The Bolts defense held tough in the ensuing weeks, putting in impressive performances against Kansas City and Miami. Middle linebackers Manti Te'o and Denzel Perryman have done wonders shoring up the rushing defense, while Melvin Ingram—5.5 sacks in his last four games—is consistently getting to the quarterback from the outside.

Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images

Broncos quarterback Brock Osweiler led the team to a 20-17 overtime win against Cincinnati in Week 16. According to ESPN.com's Jeff Legwold, he is expected to get the start again this week, with Peyton Manning serving as backup. (Bet you never expected see a sentence like that.)

Coach Gary Kubiak said that Osweiler has benefited from his experiences as a starter.

"I think [Osweiler has] hardened up and he's toughened up," Kubiak said, per Legwold. "I think he's handled himself like a champ."

Osweiler managed just 166 passing yards, one touchdown and an interception against the Bolts, but he could have an easier time finding Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas this week.

Chargers cornerback Jason Verrett did well to lock up the Broncos' receivers in Week 13 and killed a drive with an end-zone interception. However, he left the Chargers' Week 16 loss to Oakland with an injury and didn't practice Wednesday or Thursday of this week, per Chargers.com. Te'o also has been held out of practice, and cornerback Patrick Robinson has been limited.

Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

The Bolts secondary and linebacker corps are pretty tough when fully intact. The depth is not there yet, and the Broncos have the talent to take advantage.

Rivers has done a fine job this year holding the offense together, when most quarterbacks would have fallen apart. But the Broncos defense is tougher than most. San Diego's running game has been lacking all season, and Denver has made mincemeat of opposing runners, per Cameron Wolfe of the Denver Post: 

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The Chargers are dead last in rushing facing the NFL's best rush defense. Not a recipe for success. The Broncos are allowing an NFL-low 3.2 yards per carry average. They haven't allowed a 50+ yard run all season. It starts up front with nose tackle Sylvester Williams and defensive end Malik Jackson and Derek Wolfe. They've sealed the inside all year allowing Danny Trevathan and Brandon Marshall to become the first Broncos duo since 2009 to each eclipse 100 tackles.

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Donald Brown has provided a late spark for the Bolts in this department, but it won't be enough to back off the Broncos' tenacious pass rush. Chris Harris Jr. and Aqib Talib are more than capable of shutting down the likes of Dontrelle Inman and Malcom Floyd.

San Diego is at the end of a tough campaign. Injuries have depleted the team all year, and the franchise's soured relationship with safety Eric Weddle and his potential departure from America's Finest City loom large. The Broncos have everything to play for as they try to put themselves in the best possible position for a deep playoff run.


Battle of the Birds: Seattle Seahawks (9-6) vs. Arizona Cardinals (13-2)

This game, along with the Minnesota-Green Bay clash for the NFC North title, should be among the best three-plus hours of action in Week 17. Despite having wrapped up at least the No. 2 seed, Arizona head coach Bruce Arians isn't going to take things lightly on his NFC West rivals. 

"I don't think you get anything out of resting guys, especially playing a team that's in our division and we haven't beaten them at home in a couple of years," he said Monday, per Jose M. Romero of the Associated Press (via FoxSports.com). "We don't want to start a precedent now."

Seattle slunk to a shock 23-17 defeat to St. Louis in Week 16. The Rams managed to extinguish the Seahawks' red-hot offense, holding Russell Wilson to 289 yards, two touchdowns and one interception—this is what counts as "holding" Wilson these days—and turning the running game into a nonfactor.

More will be needed from the backfield committee of Fred Jackson, Bryce Brown and Christine Michael if the Seahawks are to win in Week 17. Tim Booth of the Associated Press, via Yahoo Sports, reports Marshawn Lynch won't be back on the gridiron until at least the NFC Wild Card Round.

Stephen Brashear/Associated Press

In its last three games, Arizona has allowed just 82.3 rushing yards per contest. It's a tall task for Michael and Brown, who have power but lack the second-level abilities of Lynch or injured rookie Thomas Rawls.

Prior to the Rams debacle, Wilson had been enjoying a five-game stretch unlike anything the league has ever witnessed, per USA Today's Chris Chase:

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Five straight games with at least three touchdowns and a rating over 120. Or five straight games with a completion percentage at 70% or above and 245 yards. It’s near perfection from all angles. These seemed like unbelievable achievements, so with the help of Pro-Football-Reference’s Player Streak finder, we decided to find out just how much.

To start, we looked at how many players had four-game streaks of 3 TDs/120+ rating. Only one quarterback did. Russell Wilson, and his streak is at five.

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Wilson's blooming relationship with wide receivers Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett might strike mortal fear into any of the NFC-playoff bound defenses, save for perhaps Arizona's. The Cardinals are fresh off a 38-8 drubbing of the Green Bay Packers. Aaron Rodgers could only muster 151 passing yards and one touchdown, and he threw a pick in that game.

The Cardinals' blistering pass rush sacked him eight times, three of them by the ageless Dwight Freeney. Wilson is more mobile than Rodgers, but it's not like the latter remains rooted to the spot in the pocket. Arizona can just plain get after the quarterback.

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Even if the rush doesn't prove problematic, Wilson's targets still have to shrug off the likes of cornerback Patrick Peterson and safety Deone Bucannon.

On offense, Carson Palmer is running one finely tuned machine over in Arizona, spreading the ball around to Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown with aplomb. The attack is even better overall, now that rookie David Johnson has taken over for an injured Chris Johnson. The 24-year-old has racked up 599 all-purpose yards and five touchdowns in a torrid four-game stretch.

Seattle boasts one of the better defenses in the game, a talented, cohesive unit capable of slowing, but not stopping, Arizona's relentless attack. Seattle should be able to keep up with the Cardinals for awhile in this contest, but the lack of balance on offense will allow Arizona to hone in and shut the door late.