NFL Predictions Week 17: Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Projections

How can the 2015 regular season be over? It feels like it just started, and yet here we are: It's the final week, and of course our experts have brought their expertise.

That's right: Even though some teams are resting their starters, watching the scoreboard or mailing it in, our top eight NFL experts are grinding it out in midseason form. We're bringing our biggest upset, biggest blowout, biggest mismatch and top sleepers at every skill position. We're giving you our overs, unders, bests and flops. Passing yards, rushing yards, turnovers, whatever—our experts have voted on them all.

As the real teams lock horns in title-deciding rivalry games, playoff-berth clinching matchups and even only-pride-at-stake exhibitions, our experts have voted on the likeliest outcomes.

So, for one last time this regular season, check out Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Projections to get the truest possible peek at what's going to happen in the last week of the 2015 season.

Biggest Upset

Gail Burton/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Baltimore Ravens (+9) over Cincinnati Bengals (four votes)

Though he won't be on the field to help the Ravens upset the Bengals, receiver Steve Smith Sr. might have pulled off the upset of the year when he announced he'll be returning for 2016.

With as well as Baltimore's junior varsity squad has fared in Smith's (and Joe Flacco's, and Justin Forsett's, and Dennis Pitta's) absence, knocking off the favored Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 16, Ravens fans should be excited about the team's direction for 2016.

But on Sunday, Odds Shark reports Ryan Mallett and company will be nine-point underdogs to Cincinnati, which hasn't beaten either of the two quality teams it's faced with injured starter Andy Dalton on the bench—and the Bengals may be without backup AJ McCarron, too. Can Mallett, receiver Kamar Aiken and tailback Javorius "Buck" Allen do to Cincinnati what they did to the Steelers? Four of our experts think so.

Others receiving votes: Tennessee Titans (off board) over Indianapolis Colts (three votes); Seattle Seahawks (+7) over Arizona Cardinals (one vote)

Biggest Blowout

Gregory Bull/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Denver Broncos over San Diego Chargers (six votes)

As I wrote earlier this week, quarterback Brock Osweiler—we can't insult him by appending "backup" to his position anymore—has established himself as the signal-caller of Denver's present, if not it's future. After grinding through back-to-back-to-back tough tests, Osweiler and the Broncos' swarming defense get a patsy: the Chargers.

If San Diego really is trying to showcase itself for a move to glitzy Los Angeles, it's doing a terrible job. Sitting at 4-11 after dropping a divisional road game against an eight-loss Oakland Raiders squad, it has to go on the road to face Denver, its fourth-ranked scoring defense and its on-a-roll young quarterback.

Oh, and while the Chargers have nothing left to play for, the Broncos need the win to clinch the AFC West title and a first-round bye. No wonder six of our experts (including yours truly) voted for this game.

Others receiving votes: New England Patriots over Miami Dolphins (one vote); Pittsburgh Steelers over Cleveland Browns (one vote)

Higher Total: Jets Rushing Yards or Bills Rushing Yards?

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Buffalo Bills (six votes)

The New York Jets have a sneaky good running game. Chris Ivory is second in the AFC in rushing yards, and Bilal Powell adds a complementary punch to a running attack that's 11th-best in per-game yardage.

They also have a capital-letters GREAT run defense, allowing the fewest rushing yards of any team this season (and fifth-fewest per carry, with an average of 3.7). So why didn't more of our experts take the Jets to out-rush the Bills?

Because as good as New York has been at stopping the run, the Bills have been even better at running the ball. New head coach Rex Ryan's offseason priority, building a dominant run game, has paid off. Buffalo leads the league in total rushing yards (2,319) and average yards per carry (five), despite top back LeSean McCoy ranking only 10th and 17th, respectively, in those categories.

When paired with the Jets' just-above-average run game, six of our experts like the Bills to do more ground damage than New York.

Others receiving votes: Jets (two votes)

Biggest Mismatch

Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Julio Jones vs. New Orleans Saints "secondary" (three votes)

At the end of September, Julio Jones had a convincing case to be on any MVP voter's short list. At the end of December, not much has changed: He leads the NFL in targets (192), receptions (127) and receiving yards (1,722). It's too bad his Atlanta Falcons aren't in playoff contention.

Even though Jones is not quite on the ludicrous, record-obliterating pace he was after three games, a big final contest could push him to second-best all time in single-season catches and yards—and a bonkers 17-catch, 243-yard performance would earn him both records.

With the porous Saints secondary allowing an average of 23.2 receptions per game for 281.1 yards, that might be within the realm of possibility—and both marks are well below the NFL's single-game records.

Three of our experts project this matchup as the week's biggest mismatch; if you stopped paying attention to Jones at some point this season, now would be a great time to start up again.

Others receiving votes: Ben Roethlisberger/Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Johnny Manziel/Cleveland Browns (two votes); St. Louis Rams defensive line vs. San Francisco 49ers offensive line (two votes); Denver Broncos defense vs. San Diego Chargers offensive line

Sleeper QB Performance

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Expert Consensus Pick: Zach Mettenberger (three votes)

I'm going to be honest: This week's sleeper crop is awfully thin. Too many starters have been lost to injury, and too many interesting matchups include poor backups. Most of the quality starters left standing aren't sleepy at all.

But the Tennessee Titans have an interesting case. Their opponent, the Indianapolis Colts, is ranked 28th in passing-yardage defense. Furthermore, the Colts will be pressing for a season-saving win, which makes the game a great shootout candidate (yes, even with Indianapolis' questions at quarterback).

Two of our experts, though, liked Sam Bradford to flourish in a meaningless game under interim head coach Pat Shurmur—who, after having handled a lot of the passing game under fired head coach Chip Kelly, will want to use the contest to audition for this and other jobs.

Bleacher Report NFL national lead writer Mike Tanier slid RG3 in there in case Kirk Cousins sits and Colt McCoy gets hurt.

Others receiving votes: Sam Bradford (two votes); Robert Griffin III, Case Keenum, Johnny Manziel (one vote each)

More Passing Yards: Matt Ryan or Drew Brees?

Expert Consensus Pick: Drew Brees (four votes)

As noted on the Biggest Mismatch slide, there's great potential for Julio Jones and the Atlanta Falcons to have a massive day against the New Orleans Saints.

Of course, the reverse is also true: Drew Brees is averaging 324.8 passing yards per game, which is second-best in the league. While the Falcons defense is allowing 43.8 fewer passing yards per game than the Saints, Atlanta is still just the 18th-best passing defense—hardly the 2000 Ravens.

While three of our experts like Ryan here, four voted for Brees. Even if the two teams get caught up in a shootout (as Bleacher Report NFL national lead writer Mike Tanier bet on with his push vote), the losing team often outpasses the winner—and at the time of this writing, Odds Shark had most sportsbooks giving the Saints three points.

Others receiving votes: Matt Ryan (three votes); Push ("550 each") (one vote)

More Turnovers: Matthew Stafford or Jay Cutler?

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Expert Consensus Pick: Matthew Stafford (five votes)

We finally found the matchup that would get our experts off the "always Jay Cutler" train!

The fact of the matter is, regardless of Cutler's reputation for turnovers, he has protected the ball this season. His 1.7 percent interception rate is tied for sixth-best in the NFL—and is well ahead of Stafford's rate of 2.4 percent, which is tied for 23rd-best.

Now, Cutler is tied for the ninth-most fumbles with eight while Stafford has only four, which is tied for 34th. Far from all of those fumbles were lost (each player recovered two), but Stafford's 13 interceptions are many more than Cutler's eight.

Moreover, according to Pro Football Reference, the Detroit Lions are tied for 28th in per-drive turnover rate (7.9 percent), while the Bears are ranked 26th (8.5 percent). That gap isn't huge, but Cutler and the Chicago Bears have all the (better) numbers going their way.

Others receiving votes: Jay Cutler (three votes)

Sleeper RB Performance

Jonathan Bachman/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Tim Hightower (four votes)

The Atlanta Falcons-New Orleans Saints shootout is the theme of the week, and Saints tailback Tim Hightower has been tabbed by half of our experts as the next statistical beneficiary. Along for the ride with quarterback Drew Brees and the Saints' high-powered offense, Hightower has averaged 22.7 carries for 87 yards over the last three games.

If the New Orleans offense is putting up gonzo numbers, as it did in Week 16 against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Hightower could easily have another big game. His line against the Jags—27 carries, 122 yards and two touchdowns—was impressive, and four of our experts like him to repeat the feat in the Saints' finale.

Others receiving votes: Giovani Bernard (two votes); Javorius "Buck" Allen, Brandon Bolden (one vote each)

Sleeper WR Performance

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Expert Consensus Pick: Jordan Matthews (four votes)

As discussed on the Sleeper QB slide, the Philadelphia Eagles' seemingly meaningless finale against the New York Giants isn't meaningless at all: Interim head coach Pat Shurmur, quarterback Sam Bradford and practically everyone else are auditioning for their jobs (in Philadelphia or elsewhere).

Shurmur, a former quarterbacks coach who is much pass-happier than his just-fired boss, will look to make his mark on the game—and what's more, the Giants have the league's leakiest pass defense.

The potential for the Eagles offense to explode is so high that even as four experts gave Matthews their vote, NFL national analyst Sean Tomlinson went with his teammate, Nelson Agholor.

Others receiving votes: Nelson Agholor, Travis Benjamin, Brice Butler, Mike Evans (one vote each)

Sleeper TE Performance

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Expert Consensus Pick: Owen Daniels (four votes)

After a slideshow dominated by the potential shootout at the ATL Corral, we finally have a sleeper who trumps the entries from the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints!

Three of our experts did vote for Saints tight end Ben Watson, while another tabbed Falcons tight end Jacob Tamme. But four of our experts gave the nod to the Denver Broncos' Owen Daniels, who has averaged 5.5 targets, 3.5 catches and 46.6 yards per game since his Week 9 breakout in Indianapolis.

With the Broncos going all-out against the hapless San Diego Chargers for the AFC West title, Daniels should get plenty of down-the-seam looks from Brock Osweiler.

Others receiving votes: Ben Watson (three votes); Jacob Tamme (one vote)

Best Defensive Performance

L.G. Patterson/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Aaron Donald (four votes)

St. Louis Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald is a bad, bad man—and the San Francisco 49ers have a bad, bad offensive line.

Not only does Donald have a ludicrous plus-88.6 Pro Football Focus grade, by far the highest of any player at any position, but the site has charted him with a whopping 72 pressures in 456 pass-rush snaps for a position-best pressure percentage of 12.4.

Meanwhile, the 49ers have allowed a league-worst 9.7 percent sack rate.

Ouch.

Others receiving votes: Von Miller (two votes); Cam Heyward, J.J. Watt (one vote each)

Over/Under: Five Cardinals/Seahawks Passing Touchdowns

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Over (six votes)

This is an interesting one. In an analogy appropriate for a former minor league baseball player, Russell Wilson has been doing the quarterback equivalent of hitting the cover off the ball lately.

In the last six games, per Pro Football Reference, Wilson has averaged—averaged—284.8 yards and 3.5 touchdowns on just 31.5 attempts. Across the same span, Palmer has averaged 298.8 yards and 1.8 touchdowns on 34.2 attempts—still great, but not as hot as Wilson (or even as Palmer was earlier in the season).

Though the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals defenses rank third and fifth, respectively, in points allowed, six of our experts still like Wilson and Palmer to combine for six touchdowns—or more.

In this rivalry matchup with playoff seeding on the line, it's a great bet.

Others receiving votes: Under, Push (one vote each)

Flop of the Week

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Expert Consensus Pick: Colts/Colts QB/"Whoever starts at QB for the Colts/"Vinny the Nacho Guy (Indy's starting QB)" (four votes)

Indianapolis Colts head coach Chuck Pagano, who is coaching for the AFC South title and likely his job, will have to choose his starter for Sunday from between one of two street free agents his team just signed.

Those two players? Josh Freeman and Ryan Lindley. No wonder four of our experts went with some variant of the Colts quarterback for Flop of the Week.

Of course, the Cincinnati Bengals' situation isn't much less dire, and it garnered two votes, while NFL national lead writer Mike Freeman and NFL national analyst Brent Sobleski still don't trust the New York Jets' Ryan Fitzpatrick in a massive game.

Others receiving votes: Bengals/Bengals QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick (two votes each)